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Is rising unemployment an early warning of state-level recession?

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  • Alan Armen
  • Tyler Atkinson

Abstract

Based on experience with national unemployment, analysts have viewed sharply higher state joblessness as signaling possible further deterioration. However, analyses indicate increasing state-level unemployment by itself does not indicate a recession, and that applying rule-of-thumb properties regarding recession to state economies is misguided.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Armen & Tyler Atkinson, 2016. "Is rising unemployment an early warning of state-level recession?," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 11(8), pages 1-4, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddel:00035
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