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Friedman’s First Law fails: Oil prices do not predict freedom

Author

Listed:
  • Steve Townsend

    (Department of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney, Australia)

Abstract

Thomas Friedman’s First Law of Petropolitics has acquired wide circulation and acceptance without being subjected to proper scrutiny. His claim that, in oil-rich, less-developed countries, there is an inverse correlation between the price of oil and the level of freedom is false. Friedman provides data for four countries to illustrate his thesis. This article shows his figures are incomplete, inappropriate, or misinterpreted. He specifies nine more countries that will conform to his prediction but when investigated, these, more often than not, also disprove his claim.

Suggested Citation

  • Steve Townsend, 2009. "Friedman’s First Law fails: Oil prices do not predict freedom," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 78-83, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:epc:journl:v:4:y:2009:i:1:p:78-83
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    File URL: http://www.epsjournal.org.uk/index.php/EPSJ/article/view/93
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Democracy; democratization; petropolitics; resource curse;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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