IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v67y2024ipas0275531923002751.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hedging gas in a multi-frequency semiparametric CVaR portfolio

Author

Listed:
  • Živkov, Dejan
  • Balaban, Suzana
  • Simić, Milica

Abstract

The price of natural gas has experienced a huge increase in recent years due to the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which has created a high risk for agents working with gas. This paper tries to reduce extreme risk of gas in multi-scale six-asset portfolios, combining gas with developed and BRICS stock indices. Wavelet transformed time-series are used to create the portfolios in the midterm and long-term horizons. Extreme downside risk of portfolios is measured by parametric CVaR and more complex semi-parametric CVaR. The results indicate that semiparametric CVaR is capable of recognizing leptokurtic and platykurtic features in multiscale distributions, making it superior to parametric CVaR. Both groups of indices significantly reduce extreme risk of gas, but the portfolios with BRICS indices have slight upper hand, probably due to lower integration of BRICS markets. To make the analysis more detailed, several other concepts are also examined in the paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Živkov, Dejan & Balaban, Suzana & Simić, Milica, 2024. "Hedging gas in a multi-frequency semiparametric CVaR portfolio," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:67:y:2024:i:pa:s0275531923002751
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102149
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531923002751
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102149?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Goodell, John W. & Lucey, Brian & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Rethinking financial contagion: Information transmission mechanism during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Maitra, Debasish & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Oil, natural gas and BRICS stock markets: Evidence of systemic risks and co-movements in the time-frequency domain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Slesman, Ly & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Azman-Saini, W.N.W., 2019. "Political institutions and finance-growth nexus in emerging markets and developing countries: A tale of one threshold," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 80-100.
    4. Eric Girard & Rita Biswas, 2007. "Trading Volume and Market Volatility: Developed versus Emerging Stock Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 429-459, August.
    5. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut, 2021. "Exchange rates, foreign currency exposure and sovereign risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 117, pages 1-1.
    6. Heung-Joo Cha & Thadavillil Jithendranathan, 2009. "Time-varying correlations and optimal allocation in emerging market equities for the US investors," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 172-187.
    7. Boubaker Heni & Canarella Giorgio & Miller Stephen M. & Gupta Rangan, 2017. "Time-varying persistence of inflation: evidence from a wavelet-based approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(4), pages 1-18, September.
    8. Guo, Jiaqi & Long, Shaobo & Luo, Weijie, 2022. "Nonlinear effects of climate policy uncertainty and financial speculation on the global prices of oil and gas," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    9. Abdulsalam Abidemi Sikiru & Afees A. Salisu, 2023. "Hedging against risks associated with travel and tourism stocks during COVID‐19 pandemic: The role of gold," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1872-1882, April.
    10. Lorraine Muguto & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of the Nature of Stock Return Volatility in BRICS and G7 Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-27, February.
    11. Phan, Thi Nha Truc & Bertrand, Philippe & Phan, Hong Hai & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "The role of investor behavior in emerging stock markets: Evidence from Vietnam," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 367-376.
    12. Beysül Aytaç & Thi-Hong-Van Hoang & Cyrille Mandou, 2016. "Wine: To drink or invest in? A study of wine as an investment asset in French portfolios," Post-Print hal-02009138, HAL.
    13. Lai, Shuying & Qiu, Jing & Tao, Yuechuan & Zhao, Junhua, 2021. "Risk hedging for gas power generation considering power-to-gas energy storage in three different electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    14. Li, Jie & Huang, Huaxia & Xiao, Xiao, 2012. "The sovereign property of foreign reserve investment in China: A CVaR approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1524-1536.
    15. Belhassine, Olfa & Karamti, Chiraz, 2021. "Contagion and portfolio management in times of COVID-19," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 73-86.
    16. Boo, Yee Ling & Ee, Mong Shan & Li, Bob & Rashid, Mamunur, 2017. "Islamic or conventional mutual funds: Who has the upper hand? Evidence from Malaysia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 183-192.
    17. Tweneboah, George, 2019. "Dynamic interdependence of industrial metal price returns: Evidence from wavelet multiple correlations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 527(C).
    18. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Doğan, Buhari & Ghosh, Sudeshna, 2023. "Sustainable debt and gas markets: A new look using the time-varying wavelet-windowed cross-correlation approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    19. Goodell, John W. & Gurdgiev, Constantin & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Piserà, Stefano, 2023. "Global energy supply risk: Evidence from the reactions of European natural gas futures to Nord Stream announcements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    20. Niso Abuaf & Tracyann Ayala & Duncan Sinclair, 2019. "Global equity investing: An efficient frontier approach," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 70-85, May.
    21. Walid Mensi & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Muhammad Shafullah & Khamis Hamed Al‑Yahyaee & Ahmet Sensoy, 2021. "Correction to: High frequency multiscale relationships among major cryptocurrencies: portfolio management implications," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-1, December.
    22. Chiappini, Raphaël & Jégourel, Yves & Raymond, Paul, 2019. "Towards a worldwide integrated market? New evidence on the dynamics of U.S., European and Asian natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 545-565.
    23. Chen, Yongfei & Wei, Yu & Bai, Lan & Zhang, Jiahao, 2023. "Can Green Economy stocks hedge natural gas market risk? Evidence during Russia-Ukraine conflict and other crisis periods," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    24. Thi Nha Truc Phan & Philippe Bertrand & Hong Hai Phan & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2023. "The role of investor behavior in emerging stock markets: Evidence from Vietnam," Post-Print hal-04092936, HAL.
    25. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Al-Jarrah, Idries Mohammad Wanas & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2019. "Time frequency analysis of the commonalities between Bitcoin and major Cryptocurrencies: Portfolio risk management implications," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 283-294.
    26. Gupta, Suman & Das, Debojyoti & Hasim, Haslifah & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "The dynamic relationship between stock returns and trading volume revisited: A MODWT-VAR approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 91-98.
    27. Su, Kuangxi & Yao, Yinhong & Zheng, Chengli & Xie, Wenzhao, 2023. "A novel hybrid strategy for crude oil future hedging based on the combination of three minimum-CVaR models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 35-50.
    28. Lin, Ling & Zhou, Zhongbao & Liu, Qing & Jiang, Yong, 2019. "Risk transmission between natural gas market and stock markets: portfolio and hedging strategy analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 245-254.
    29. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    30. Le, Thai Hong & Luong, Anh Tram, 2022. "Dynamic spillovers between oil price, stock market, and investor sentiment: Evidence from the United States and Vietnam," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    31. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2023. "Natural gas and the utility sector nexus in the U.S.: Quantile connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    32. Georges Tsafack & James Cataldo, 2021. "Backtesting and estimation error: value-at-risk overviolation rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1351-1396, September.
    33. Amine Ismail & Huyên Pham, 2019. "Robust Markowitz mean-variance portfolio selection under ambiguous covariance matrix," Post-Print hal-03947497, HAL.
    34. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Emamzadehfard, Sahar, 2017. "Optimal hedging in the US natural gas market: The effect of maturity and cointegration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 92-105.
    35. Songjiao Chen & William W. Wilson & Ryan Larsen & Bruce Dahl, 2015. "Investing in Agriculture as an Asset Class," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 353-371, June.
    36. Aytaç, Beysül & Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Mandou, Cyrille, 2016. "Wine: To drink or invest in? A study of wine as an investment asset in French portfolios," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 591-614.
    37. Wang, TianTian & Zhang, Dayong & Clive Broadstock, David, 2019. "Financialization, fundamentals, and the time-varying determinants of US natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 707-719.
    38. Walid Mensi & Mobeen Ur Rehman & Muhammad Shafiullah & Khamis Hamed Al-Yahyaee & Ahmet Sensoy, 2021. "High frequency multiscale relationships among major cryptocurrencies: portfolio management implications," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, December.
    39. Alessandro Scuderi & Giuseppe Timpanaro & Mariarita Cammarata, 2023. "Analysis of global warming potential: Organic vs. conventional tomatoes," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 69(7), pages 267-275.
    40. Amine Ismail & Huyên Pham, 2019. "Robust Markowitz mean‐variance portfolio selection under ambiguous covariance matrix," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 174-207, January.
    41. Ubukata, Masato, 2018. "Dynamic hedging performance and downside risk: Evidence from Nikkei index futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 270-281.
    42. Alqaralleh, Huthaifa & Canepa, Alessandra, 2022. "The role of precious metals in portfolio diversification during the Covid19 pandemic: A wavelet-based quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    43. Dogan, Eyup & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq & Luni, Tania, 2022. "Analyzing the nexus of COVID-19 and natural resources and commodities: Evidence from time-varying causality," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    44. Chai, Shanglei & Zhou, P., 2018. "The Minimum-CVaR strategy with semi-parametric estimation in carbon market hedging problems," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 64-75.
    45. Rockafellar, R. Tyrrell & Uryasev, Stanislav, 2002. "Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1443-1471, July.
    46. Emrah ALTUN & Morad ALIZADEH & Gamze OZEL & Hüseyin TATLIDIL & Najmieh MAKSAYI, 2017. "Forecasting Value-At-Risk With Two-Step Method: Garch-Exponentiated Odd Log-Logistic Normal Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 97-115, December.
    47. Changfeng Zhou & Huan Cai, 2020. "Optimal Hedging Strategies for Natural Gas," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(8), pages 1-1, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2023. "Natural gas and the utility sector nexus in the U.S.: Quantile connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Xu, Qifa & Zhou, Yingying & Jiang, Cuixia & Yu, Keming & Niu, Xufeng, 2016. "A large CVaR-based portfolio selection model with weight constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 436-447.
    3. Cui, Xueting & Zhu, Shushang & Sun, Xiaoling & Li, Duan, 2013. "Nonlinear portfolio selection using approximate parametric Value-at-Risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2124-2139.
    4. Dominique Guégan & Wayne Tarrant, 2012. "On the necessity of five risk measures," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 533-552, November.
    5. Vladimir Rankovic & Mikica Drenovak & Branko Uroševic & Ranko Jelic, 2016. "Mean Univariate-GARCH VaR Portfolio Optimization: Actual Portfolio Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 5731, CESifo.
    6. Harris, Richard D.F. & Mazibas, Murat, 2013. "Dynamic hedge fund portfolio construction: A semi-parametric approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 139-149.
    7. Fermanian, Jean-David & Scaillet, Olivier, 2005. "Sensitivity analysis of VaR and Expected Shortfall for portfolios under netting agreements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 927-958, April.
    8. Allen, D.E. & McAleer, M.J. & Powell, R.J. & Singh, A.K., 2015. "Down-side Risk Metrics as Portfolio Diversification Strategies across the GFC," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-32, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. Halser, Christoph & Paraschiv, Florentina & Russo, Marianna, 2023. "Oil–gas price relationships on three continents: Disruptions and equilibria," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    10. Rad, Hossein & Low, Rand Kwong Yew & Miffre, Joëlle & Faff, Robert, 2020. "Does sophistication of the weighting scheme enhance the performance of long-short commodity portfolios?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 164-180.
    11. Karma, Otto & Sander, Priit, 2006. "The impact of financial leverage on risk of equity measured by loss-oriented risk measures: An option pricing approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(3), pages 1340-1356, December.
    12. Wolfgang Kürsten & Mario Brandtner, 2009. "Kohärente Risikomessung versus individuelle Akzeptanzmengen — Anmerkungen zum impliziten Risikoverständnis des “Conditional Value-at-Risk”," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 358-381, June.
    13. Yuichi Takano & Renata Sotirov, 2012. "A polynomial optimization approach to constant rebalanced portfolio selection," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 645-666, July.
    14. Hsieh, Chung-Chi & Lu, Yu-Ting, 2010. "Manufacturer's return policy in a two-stage supply chain with two risk-averse retailers and random demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 514-523, November.
    15. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K Hassani, 2014. "Distortion Risk Measures or the Transformation of Unimodal Distributions into Multimodal Functions," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14008, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    16. Soleimani, Hamed & Govindan, Kannan, 2014. "Reverse logistics network design and planning utilizing conditional value at risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(2), pages 487-497.
    17. Pu, Yingjian & Yang, Baochen, 2022. "The commodity futures' historical basis in trading strategy and portfolio investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    18. JEBABLI, Ikram & KOUAISSAH, Noureddine & AROURI, Mohamed, 2022. "Volatility Spillovers between Stock and Energy Markets during Crises: A Comparative Assessment between the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the Covid-19 Pandemic Crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    19. Mitter, Hermine & Heumesser, Christine & Schmid, Erwin, 2014. "Modelling robust crop production portfolios to assess agricultural vulnerability to climate change," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182702, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Dominique Guegan & Wayne Tarrant, 2011. "Viewing risk measures as information," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11054, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy portfolio optimization; Wavelet; Parametric and semiparametric downside risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:67:y:2024:i:pa:s0275531923002751. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.