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What retail apocalypse? A Delphi forecast of commercial space demand in the Toronto region

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  • Daniel, Christopher
  • Hernandez, Tony

Abstract

The retail and shopping centre industries have been subject to cyclical predictions of disruption at the hands of E-commerce for many years. The prevailing narrative has focused on declining demand for physical retail space and the so-called ‘retail apocalypse’. This research investigates the opinions of industry on this issue using an expert panel mini-Delphi survey method based on the Toronto, Canada study region. The research investigates predictions of E-commerce growth and resulting impacts on retail space demand by subsector. Findings indicate that while industry experts forecast large E-commerce growth, the effects on retail space demand are expected to be muted. Some variation is expected by retail subsector, but these findings generally contrast with previous cyclical predictions of apocalyptic declines in retail space demand.

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  • Daniel, Christopher & Hernandez, Tony, 2024. "What retail apocalypse? A Delphi forecast of commercial space demand in the Toronto region," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joreco:v:77:y:2024:i:c:s0969698923004216
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jretconser.2023.103670
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