Multinationals' profits in China: Impact of tax avoidance

Based on proprietary and hand-collected source country information on foreign-owned firms in China, this paper empirically explores the effect of the tax avoidance of multinational firms on the profit rate of foreign-owned firms. Foreign firms in China previously benefited from various preferential tax policies and had a lower effective tax rate compared to domestic firms. The results show that the increase in the difference between the statutory maximum tax rate in the parent country and the domestic tax rate will increase foreign firms' pretax profit margin. This effect is more pronounced for younger firms and wholly foreign-owned firms. Further tests indicate that the transfer pricing in export and import activity of foreign firms is an important channel for multinational firms to shift profits. In year 2008, the implementation of the new Enterprise Income Tax Law has unified the corporate tax rate for both domestic and foreign firms at 25 percent. The tax reform reduces the profit margin of foreign firms, especially those with larger tax rate differentials. This paper explains multinational firms' profit performance from the novel perspective of tax avoidance.