IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/forpol/v159y2024ics1389934123002186.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Intervention analysis of COVID-19 pandemic impact on timber price in selected markets

Author

Listed:
  • Hlaváčková, Petra
  • Banaś, Jan
  • Utnik-Banaś, Katarzyna

Abstract

Using intervention analysis and time series of roundwood prices from ten European and North American countries, we analyzed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the movement of timber prices. The study material consists of forty-six quarterly time series prices of logs and pulp, both softwood and hardwood, covering the period 2005–2022. During the Covid-19 pandemic period (2020:Q1-2020:Q4), softwood log prices mostly underwent declines, with the changes being the largest in Slovakia (−35%), the Czech Republic (−24%) and Austria (−24%), slightly smaller in the United States (−19%), Poland (−17%), Slovenia (−12%) and Germany (−11%) while no significant price changes were recorded in Finland and Sweden. In Canada and the United States, sharp price declines occurred earlier (2020:Q1 and 2020:Q2, respectively), while in Europe, significant price declines occurred later and lasted longer. In the post-pandemic COVID-19 period, prices increased, but in most cases, the shift was not statistically significant compared to the pre-pandemic period. Softwood pulp prices were subject to much less change, with a significant increase only in Slovakia and Poland. In contrast, no significant changes were observed in the price of both log and pulpwood hardwood during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Hlaváčková, Petra & Banaś, Jan & Utnik-Banaś, Katarzyna, 2024. "Intervention analysis of COVID-19 pandemic impact on timber price in selected markets," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:159:y:2024:i:c:s1389934123002186
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103123
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934123002186
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103123?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lamichhane, Sabhyata & Mei, Bin & Siry, Jacek, 2023. "Forecasting pine sawtimber stumpage prices: A comparison between a time series hybrid model and an artificial neural network," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    3. Banaś, Jan & Utnik-Banaś, Katarzyna, 2021. "Evaluating a seasonal autoregressive moving average model with an exogenous variable for short-term timber price forecasting," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    4. Muhammad, Andrew & Hellwinckel, Chad M. & Anosike, Ejimofor & Taylor, Adam, 2022. "Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tennessee Forest Product Exports," Extension Reports 319769, University of Tennessee, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    5. Asada, Raphael & Hurmekoski, Elias & Hoeben, Annechien Dirkje & Patacca, Marco & Stern, Tobias & Toppinen, Anne, 2023. "Resilient forest-based value chains? Econometric analysis of roundwood prices in five European countries in the era of natural disturbances," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    6. Banaś, Jan & Šafařík, Dalibor & Utnik-Banaś, Katarzyna & Hlaváčková, Petra, 2022. "Identifying long-run and short-run relationships in the European Union softwood market," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    7. Maraseni, Tek & Poudyal, Bishnu Hari & Aryal, Kishor & Laudari, Hari Krishna, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 in the forestry sector: A case of lowland region of Nepal," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kutuk, Yasin, 2022. "Inequality convergence: A world-systems theory approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 150-165.
    2. Jason Allen & Robert Amano & David P. Byrne & Allan W. Gregory, 2009. "Canadian city housing prices and urban market segmentation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 1132-1149, August.
    3. Nasreen, Samia & Anwar, Sofia & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2017. "Financial stability, energy consumption and environmental quality: Evidence from South Asian economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1105-1122.
    4. Garrod Brian & Almeida António & Machado Luiz, 2023. "Modelling of nonlinear asymmetric effects of changes in tourism on economic growth in an autonomous small-island economy," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 154-172, December.
    5. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Non-stationarity and Non-linearity in Stock Prices: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(11), pages 1-11.
    6. Bosupeng, Mpho & Biza-Khupe, Simangaliso, 2015. "The Impact of Money Supply Volatility on the Fisher Effect –A Botswana Empirical Perspective," MPRA Paper 77920, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    7. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    8. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2008. "Do Permanent Shocks Explain Income Levels? A Common Cycle–Common Trend Analysis Of Regional Income Levels For China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 656-662, December.
    9. Bae, Jinho & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "Earnings growth and the bull market of the 1990s: Is there a case for rational exuberance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 690-707, December.
    10. Christian Urom & Gideon Ndubuisi & Jude Ozor, 2021. "Economic activity, and financial and commodity markets’ shocks: An analysis of implied volatility indexes," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 51-66.
    11. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    12. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2015. "Testing for current account sustainability under assumptions of smooth break and nonlinearity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 142-156.
    13. John Dawson & Amit Sen, 2007. "New evidence on the convergence of international income from a group of 29 countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 199-230, September.
    14. Kondoz, Mehmet & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Athari, Seyed Alireza, 2021. "Time-frequency dependencies of financial and economic risks in South American countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 170-181.
    15. Philippe Andrade & Catherine Bruneau, 2002. "Excess returns, portfolio choices and exchange rate dynamics. The yen/dollar case, 1980–1998," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(3), pages 233-256, July.
    16. László KÓNYA, 2023. "Per Capita Income Convergence and Divergence of Selected OECD Countries to and from the US: A Reappraisal for the period 1900-2018," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 23(1), pages 33-56.
    17. Marcus Box & Karl Gratzer & Xiang Lin, 2020. "Destructive entrepreneurship in the small business sector: bankruptcy fraud in Sweden, 1830–2010," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 437-457, February.
    18. Umar, Muhammad & Su, Chi-Wei & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2021. "Driven by fundamentals or exploded by emotions: Detecting bubbles in oil prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    19. Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo & Abraham Ayobamiji Awosusi & Seun Damola Oladipupo & Ephraim Bonah Agyekum & Arunkumar Jayakumar & Nallapaneni Manoj Kumar, 2021. "Dominance of Fossil Fuels in Japan’s National Energy Mix and Implications for Environmental Sustainability," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-20, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:159:y:2024:i:c:s1389934123002186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/forpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.