IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v259y2017i1p251-261.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Statistical testing of bounded rationality with applications to the newsvendor model

Author

Listed:
  • Ubøe, Jan
  • Andersson, Jonas
  • Jörnsten, Kurt
  • Lillestøl, Jostein
  • Sandal, Leif

Abstract

In this paper we define bounded rationality in terms of probabilistic cost efficiency. This establishes a framework where bounded rationality can be examined rigorously by statistical methods. We apply this theory to data from laboratory experiments on the newsvendor model. We enter into a theoretical discussion of the classical pull-to-center effect and explain why underorders are typically larger than overorders.

Suggested Citation

  • Ubøe, Jan & Andersson, Jonas & Jörnsten, Kurt & Lillestøl, Jostein & Sandal, Leif, 2017. "Statistical testing of bounded rationality with applications to the newsvendor model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(1), pages 251-261.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:259:y:2017:i:1:p:251-261
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.10.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221716308207
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2016.10.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jörnsten, Kurt & Ubøe, Jan, 2010. "Quantification of preferences in markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 453-466, July.
    2. Becker-Peth, Michael & Thonemann, Ulrich W., 2016. "Reference points in revenue sharing contracts—How to design optimal supply chain contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1033-1049.
    3. AJ A. Bostian & Charles A. Holt & Angela M. Smith, 2008. "Newsvendor "Pull-to-Center" Effect: Adaptive Learning in a Laboratory Experiment," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 590-608, July.
    4. Filip Matêjka & Alisdair McKay, 2015. "Rational Inattention to Discrete Choices: A New Foundation for the Multinomial Logit Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(1), pages 272-298, January.
    5. Hausman, Jerry & McFadden, Daniel, 1984. "Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1219-1240, September.
    6. Gary E. Bolton & Axel Ockenfels & Ulrich W. Thonemann, 2012. "Managers and Students as Newsvendors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(12), pages 2225-2233, December.
    7. Etzioni, Amitai, 1986. "Rationality is anti-entropic," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 17-36, March.
    8. Colin Camerer & Teck-Hua Ho, 1999. "Experience-weighted Attraction Learning in Normal Form Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 827-874, July.
    9. Mattsson, Lars-Goran & Weibull, Jorgen W., 2002. "Probabilistic choice and procedurally bounded rationality," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 61-78, October.
    10. Smith, Tony E., 1978. "A cost-efficiency principle of spatial interaction behavior," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 313-337, December.
    11. Qin, Yan & Wang, Ruoxuan & Vakharia, Asoo J. & Chen, Yuwen & Seref, Michelle M.H., 2011. "The newsvendor problem: Review and directions for future research," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 361-374, September.
    12. Mirko Kremer & Stefan Minner & Luk N. Van Wassenhove, 2010. "Do Random Errors Explain Newsvendor Behavior?," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 12(4), pages 673-681, July.
    13. Andersson, Jonas & Ubøe, Jan, 2010. "Some aspects of random utility, extreme value theory and multinomial logit models," Discussion Papers 2010/1, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    14. Small, Kenneth A & Hsiao, Cheng, 1985. "Multinomial Logit Specification Tests," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 619-627, October.
    15. Maurice E. Schweitzer & Gérard P. Cachon, 2000. "Decision Bias in the Newsvendor Problem with a Known Demand Distribution: Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(3), pages 404-420, March.
    16. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
    17. Xuanming Su, 2008. "Bounded Rationality in Newsvendor Models," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 10(4), pages 566-589, May.
    18. Anas, Alex, 1983. "Discrete choice theory, information theory and the multinomial logit and gravity models," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 13-23, February.
    19. Faruk Gul & Paulo Natenzon & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 2014. "Random Choice as Behavioral Optimization," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 1873-1912, September.
    20. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    21. Michael Becker-Peth & Elena Katok & Ulrich W. Thonemann, 2013. "Designing Buyback Contracts for Irrational But Predictable Newsvendors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(8), pages 1800-1816, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tsionas, Mike G., 2020. "Bounded rationality and thick frontiers in stochastic frontier analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(2), pages 762-768.
    2. Tsionas, Mike G., 2023. "Bayesian learning in performance. Is there any?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(1), pages 263-282.
    3. Andersson, Jonas & Jörnsten, Kurt & Lillestøl, Jostein & Ubøe, Jan, 2019. "Analyzing learning effects in the newsvendor model by probabilistic methods," Discussion Papers 2019/13, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ubøe, Jan & Andersson, Jonas & Jörnsten, Kurt & Lillestøl, Jostein & Sandal, Leif K., 2014. "Probabilistic cost efficiency and bounded rationality in the newsvendor model," Discussion Papers 2014/41, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    2. Andersson, Jonas & Jörnsten, Kurt & Lillestøl, Jostein & Ubøe, Jan, 2019. "Analyzing learning effects in the newsvendor model by probabilistic methods," Discussion Papers 2019/13, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    3. Sharifi, Rozhin & Razavi, Hamideh & Elahi, Ehsan, 2023. "Investigation of the ordering behavior of a retailer in the revenue sharing and buyback contracts considering round number bias," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Ockenfels, Axel & Selten, Reinhard, 2014. "Impulse balance in the newsvendor game," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 237-247.
    5. Karen Donohue & Özalp Özer, 2020. "Behavioral Operations: Past, Present, and Future," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 22(1), pages 191-202, January.
    6. Yun Shin Lee & Enno Siemsen, 2017. "Task Decomposition and Newsvendor Decision Making," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(10), pages 3226-3245, October.
    7. Becker-Peth, Michael & Thonemann, Ulrich W., 2016. "Reference points in revenue sharing contracts—How to design optimal supply chain contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 1033-1049.
    8. Kalakbandi, Vinay Kumar, 2018. "Managing the misbehaving retailer under demand uncertainty and imperfect information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(3), pages 939-954.
    9. Christian Köster & Heike Y. Schenk-Mathes, 2016. "Explanatory and predictive power of the adaptive learning model: average and heterogeneous behavior in a newsvendor context," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 86(4), pages 361-387, May.
    10. Elahi, Ehsan & Lamba, Narasimha & Ramaswamy, Chinthana, 2013. "How can we improve the performance of supply chain contracts? An experimental study," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 146-157.
    11. Castañeda, Jaime Andrés & Gonçalves, Paulo, 2018. "Ordering behavior in a newsstand experiment," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 186-196.
    12. Yufei Ren & Rachel Croson, 2013. "Overconfidence in Newsvendor Orders: An Experimental Study," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2502-2517, November.
    13. Samuel N. Kirshner & Zhaolin Li, 2022. "Supply chain contracting with competing regretful retailers," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2196-2211, September.
    14. Nils Rudi & David Drake, 2014. "Observation Bias: The Impact of Demand Censoring on Newsvendor Level and Adjustment Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(5), pages 1334-1345, May.
    15. Yingshuai Zhao & Xiaobo Zhao, 2016. "How a competing environment influences newsvendor ordering decisions," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(1), pages 204-214, January.
    16. Michael Becker‐Peth & Kai Hoberg & Margarita Protopappa‐Sieke, 2020. "Multiperiod Inventory Management with Budget Cycles: Rational and Behavioral Decision‐Making," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(3), pages 643-663, March.
    17. Castañeda, Jaime Andrés & Brennan, Mark & Goentzel, Jarrod, 2019. "A behavioral investigation of supply chain contracts for a newsvendor problem in a developing economy," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 72-83.
    18. Diego D’Urso & Ferdinando Chiacchio & Evangelia Demerouti, 2021. "Measuring How Decision Support Systems Improve Newsvendors’ Performance: The Subjects’ Version," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-16, September.
    19. Tony Haitao Cui & Guangwen Kong & Behrooz Pourghannad, 2020. "Is Simplicity the Ultimate Sophistication? The Superiority of Linear Pricing," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(7), pages 1767-1788, July.
    20. Shan Li & Kay-Yut Chen & Ying Rong, 2020. "The Behavioral Promise and Pitfalls in Compensating Store Managers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(10), pages 4899-4919, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:259:y:2017:i:1:p:251-261. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.