IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ehbiol/v52y2024ics1570677x23001156.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic incentives surrounding fertility: Evidence from Alaska’s permanent fund dividend

Author

Listed:
  • Yonzan, Nishant
  • Timilsina, Laxman
  • Kelly, Inas Rashad

Abstract

The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend provided an incentive that increased fertility. This paper estimates the impact of the dividend transfer on fertility rates in Alaska compared to other states using the synthetic control methodology. For the period from 1982 to 1988, fertility on average increased annually in Alaska by 11.3 births per 1000 women aged 15–44—a 13.1 percent increase over the counterfactual. This was driven by women over 20. Fertility increased for women aged 20–24 by 12.4 percent, those aged 25–34 by 14.3 percent, and those aged 35–44 by 16.9 percent. The paper also finds support that narrowing the gap between births, increase in total fertility rate, and no change in abortion are potential channels for the observed increase in fertility. No change in the fertility for the adolescents combined with no change in abortion suggests that the increase in fertility in Alaska was planned.

Suggested Citation

  • Yonzan, Nishant & Timilsina, Laxman & Kelly, Inas Rashad, 2024. "Economic incentives surrounding fertility: Evidence from Alaska’s permanent fund dividend," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:52:y:2024:i:c:s1570677x23001156
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2023.101334
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1570677X23001156
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ehb.2023.101334?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rajeev Dehejia & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2004. "Booms, Busts, and Babies' Health," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(3), pages 1091-1130.
    2. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1, July.
    3. Gary S. Becker & H. Gregg Lewis, 1974. "Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 81-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Keane, Michael & Moffitt, Robert, 1998. "A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 553-589, August.
    5. Hilary Hoynes & Doug Miller & David Simon, 2015. "Income, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and Infant Health," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 172-211, February.
    6. Kozminski, Kate & Baek, Jungho, 2017. "Can an oil-rich economy reduce its income inequality? Empirical evidence from Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 98-104.
    7. repec:pri:cheawb:adriana_booms.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Sarah Baird & Francisco H. G. Ferreira & Berk Özler & Michael Woolcock, 2013. "Relative Effectiveness of Conditional and Unconditional Cash Transfers for Schooling Outcomes in Developing Countries: A Systematic Review," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(1), pages 1-124.
    9. Maitreesh Ghatak & François Maniquet, 2019. "Universal Basic Income: Some Theoretical Aspects," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 895-928, August.
    10. Orazio P. Attanasio & Veruska Oppedisano & Marcos Vera-Hernández, 2015. "Should Cash Transfers Be Conditional? Conditionality, Preventive Care, and Health Outcomes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 35-52, April.
    11. Brett Watson & Mouhcine Guettabi & Matthew Reimer, 2020. "Universal Cash and Crime," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 678-689, October.
    12. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    13. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto, 2021. "Synthetic controls with imperfect pretreatment fit," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1197-1221, November.
    14. Damon Jones & Ioana Marinescu, 2022. "The Labor Market Impacts of Universal and Permanent Cash Transfers: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 315-340, May.
    15. Nikolay Doudchenko & Guido W. Imbens, 2016. "Balancing, Regression, Difference-In-Differences and Synthetic Control Methods: A Synthesis," NBER Working Papers 22791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Sebastian Galiani & Brian Quistorff, 2017. "The synth runner package: Utilities to automate synthetic control estimation using synth," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 17(4), pages 834-849, December.
    17. Ioana Marinescu, 2018. "No Strings Attached: The Behavioral Effects of U.S. Unconditional Cash Transfer Programs," NBER Working Papers 24337, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Lindo, Jason M. & Pineda-Torres, Mayra, 2021. "New Evidence on the Effects of Mandatory Waiting Periods for Abortion," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    19. Hamish Low & Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri & Alessandra Voena, 2018. "Marriage, Labor Supply and the Dynamics of the Social Safety Net," NBER Working Papers 24356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Willis, Robert J, 1973. "A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 14-64, Part II, .
    21. Marianne Bitler & Hilary Hoynes, 2015. "Living Arrangements, Doubling Up, and the Great Recession: Was This Time Different?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 166-170, May.
    22. Reagan Baughman & Stacy Dickert-Conlin, 2009. "The earned income tax credit and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 537-563, July.
    23. David K. Evans & Anna Popova, 2017. "Cash Transfers and Temptation Goods," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 189-221.
    24. Joan Kahn & Kay Anderson, 1992. "Intergenerational patterns of teenage fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 29(1), pages 39-57, February.
    25. Daniel Parent & Ling Wang, 2007. "Tax incentives and fertility in Canada: quantum vs tempo effects," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 371-400, May.
    26. Chang-Tai Hsieh, 2003. "Do Consumers React to Anticipated Income Changes? Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 397-405, March.
    27. Alma Cohen & Rajeev Dehejia & Dmitri Romanov, 2013. "Financial Incentives and Fertility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 1-20, March.
    28. Evans, William N. & Moore, Timothy J., 2011. "The short-term mortality consequences of income receipt," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1410-1424.
    29. Ashok Kaul & Stefan Klößner & Gregor Pfeifer & Manuel Schieler, 2022. "Standard Synthetic Control Methods: The Case of Using All Preintervention Outcomes Together With Covariates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1362-1376, June.
    30. Jason M. Lindo, 2010. "Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
    31. Berman, Matthew, 2018. "Resource rents, universal basic income, and poverty among Alaska’s Indigenous peoples," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 161-172.
    32. repec:pri:cheawb:adriana_booms is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25.
    34. Susan W. Parker & Petra E. Todd, 2017. "Conditional Cash Transfers: The Case of Progresa/Oportunidades," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 866-915, September.
    35. Abhijit Banerjee & Paul Niehaus & Tavneet Suri, 2019. "Universal Basic Income in the Developing World," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 959-983, August.
    36. Kevin Milligan, 2005. "Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 539-555, August.
    37. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    38. Santiago Garganta & Leonardo Gasparini & Mariana Marchionni & Mariano Tappatá, 2017. "The Effect of Cash Transfers on Fertility: Evidence from Argentina," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(1), pages 1-24, February.
    39. Hilary Hoynes & Jesse Rothstein, 2019. "Universal Basic Income in the United States and Advanced Countries," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 929-958, August.
    40. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Rema Hanna & Gabriel E. Kreindler & Benjamin A. Olken, 2017. "Debunking the Stereotype of the Lazy Welfare Recipient: Evidence from Cash Transfer Programs," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 32(2), pages 155-184.
    41. Scott Goldsmith, 2012. "The Economic and Social Impacts of the Permanent Fund Dividend on Alaska," Exploring the Basic Income Guarantee, in: Karl Widerquist & Michael W. Howard (ed.), Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend, chapter 0, pages 49-63, Palgrave Macmillan.
    42. Wankyo Chung & Hyungserk Ha & Beomsoo Kim, 2016. "Money Transfer And Birth Weight: Evidence From The Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 576-590, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nishant Yonzan & Laxman Timilsina & Inas Rashad Kelly, 2020. "Economic Incentives Surrounding Fertility: Evidence from Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend," NBER Working Papers 26712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Guettabi, Mouhcine & Witman, Allison, 2023. "Universal cash transfers and prescription utilization: Evidence from the Alaska permanent fund dividend," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    3. Richard Dorsett, 2021. "A Bayesian structural time series analysis of the effect of basic income on crime: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 184(1), pages 179-200, January.
    4. Grossman, Daniel, 2019. "The unintended effects of place based programs: Fertility and health effects of urban empowerment zones," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 114-127.
    5. Natalie Malak & Md Mahbubur Rahman & Terry A. Yip, 2019. "Baby bonus, anyone? Examining heterogeneous responses to a pro-natalist policy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 1205-1246, October.
    6. Kristiina Huttunen & Jenni Kellokumpu, 2016. "The Effect of Job Displacement on Couples' Fertility Decisions," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 403-442.
    7. Jérôme Adda & Christian Dustmann & Katrien Stevens, 2017. "The Career Costs of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 293-337.
    8. Manuela A. de Paz-Báñez & María José Asensio-Coto & Celia Sánchez-López & María-Teresa Aceytuno, 2020. "Is There Empirical Evidence on How the Implementation of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) Affects Labour Supply? A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-36, November.
    9. Shelly Lundberg & Aloysius Siow, 2017. "Canadian contributions to family economics," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1304-1323, December.
    10. Jiaqi Yang & Geetha Mohan & Supriya Pipil & Kensuke Fukushi, 2021. "Review on basic income (BI): its theories and empirical cases," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 23(2), pages 203-239, December.
    11. Mary Kopriva, 2023. "Universal Cash Transfer Impacts on Maternal and Infant Health," Working Papers 2023-02, University of Alaska Anchorage, Department of Economics.
    12. Libertad González & Sofia Karina Trommlerová, 2023. "Cash Transfers and Fertility: How the Introduction and Cancellation of a Child Benefit Affected Births and Abortions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(3), pages 783-818.
    13. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Papers 2207.14481, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    14. Jan Gromadzki, 2021. "Labor supply effects of a universal cash transfer," IBS Working Papers 02/2021, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    15. González, Libertad & Trommlerová, Sofia, 2022. "Cash transfers before pregnancy and infant health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    16. Nicoletta Balbo & Francesco C. Billari & Melinda Mills, 2013. "Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 29(1), pages 1-38, February.
    17. Joan E. Madia & Francesco Moscone & Asieh Hosseini Tabaghdehi & Jong-Chol An & Changkeun Lee, 2024. "Fertility Decline and Tax Revenues in South Korea," FBK-IRVAPP Working Papers 2024-02, Research Institute for the Evaluation of Public Policies (IRVAPP), Bruno Kessler Foundation.
    18. Avdic, Daniel & von Hinke, Stephanie, 2021. "Extending alcohol retailers’ opening hours: Evidence from Sweden," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    19. Damon Jones & Ioana Marinescu, 2022. "The Labor Market Impacts of Universal and Permanent Cash Transfers: Evidence from the Alaska Permanent Fund," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 315-340, May.
    20. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Ibanez, Ana Maria & Rozo, Sandra V. & Traettino, Salvador, 2023. "More Benefits, Fewer Children: How Regularization Affects Immigrant Fertility," IZA Discussion Papers 16170, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Cash transfers; UBI;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:52:y:2024:i:c:s1570677x23001156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622964 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.