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Semiparametric estimation of long-term treatment effects

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  • Chen, Jiafeng
  • Ritzwoller, David M.

Abstract

Long-term outcomes of experimental evaluations are necessarily observed after long delays. We develop semiparametric methods for combining the short-term outcomes of experiments with observational measurements of short-term and long-term outcomes, in order to estimate long-term treatment effects. We characterize semiparametric efficiency bounds for various instances of this problem. These calculations facilitate the construction of several estimators. We analyze the finite-sample performance of these estimators with a simulation calibrated to data from an evaluation of the long-term effects of a poverty alleviation program.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Jiafeng & Ritzwoller, David M., 2023. "Semiparametric estimation of long-term treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 237(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:237:y:2023:i:2:s0304407623002610
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2023.105545
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    1. David M. Ritzwoller & Joseph P. Romano, 2023. "Reproducible Aggregation of Sample-Split Statistics," Papers 2311.14204, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-Term Treatment Effects; Semiparametric Efficiency; Experimentation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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