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Exploring the future of European crop production in a liberalised market, with specific consideration of climate change and the regional competitiveness

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  • Hermans, C.M.L.
  • Geijzendorffer, I.R.
  • Ewert, F.
  • Metzger, M.J.
  • Vereijken, P.H.
  • Woltjer, G.B.
  • Verhagen, A.

Abstract

Long-term future development of European agriculture within the global market is highly uncertain, but can potentially have large impacts on the future of agricultural businesses, rural communities and amenities such as traditional landscapes and biodiversity. Despite great uncertainties it is of interest to explore the extent of these potential changes. This paper provides an explorative scenario of the European crop production in a liberalised world without European Union (EU) market interventions. The results do not form a prediction or a business as usual scenario, but rather a plausible and salient thought-experiment of a possible future based on the consistent integration of current conceptual and quantitative models.

Suggested Citation

  • Hermans, C.M.L. & Geijzendorffer, I.R. & Ewert, F. & Metzger, M.J. & Vereijken, P.H. & Woltjer, G.B. & Verhagen, A., 2010. "Exploring the future of European crop production in a liberalised market, with specific consideration of climate change and the regional competitiveness," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(18), pages 2177-2187.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:18:p:2177-2187
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.03.021
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    1. Leclère, David & Jayet, Pierre-Alain & de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie, 2013. "Farm-level Autonomous Adaptation of European Agricultural Supply to Climate Change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-14.
    2. Martina Sartori & Davide Geneletti & Stefano Schiavo & Rocco Scolozzi, 2017. "To what extent will climate and land-use change affect EU-28 agriculture? A computable general equilibrium analysis," Working Papers 2017:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Leclere, David & Jayet, Pierre-Alain & de Noblet-Ducoudre, Nathalie, 2011. "Short-term Farm Level Adaptations of EU15 Agricultural Supply to Climate Change," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114391, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Frank, Stefan & Witzke, Heinz-Peter & Zimmermann, Andrea & Havlík, Petr & Ciaian, Pavel, 2014. "Climate change impacts on European agriculture: a multi model perspective," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 183025, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Vratislava Janovska & Petra Simova & Josef Vlasak & Petr Sklenicka, 2017. "Factors affecting farm size on the European level and the national level of the Czech Republic," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 1-12.
    6. Wolf, Joost & Kanellopoulos, Argyris & Kros, Johannes & Webber, Heidi & Zhao, Gang & Britz, Wolfgang & Reinds, Gert Jan & Ewert, Frank & de Vries, Wim, 2015. "Combined analysis of climate, technological and price changes on future arable farming systems in Europe," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 56-73.
    7. Diogo, V. & Reidsma, P. & Schaap, B. & Andree, B.P.J. & Koomen, E., 2017. "Assessing local and regional economic impacts of climatic extremes and feasibility of adaptation measures in Dutch arable farming systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 216-229.
    8. Schönhart, Martin & Schauppenlehner, Thomas & Kuttner, Michael & Kirchner, Mathias & Schmid, Erwin, 2016. "Climate change impacts on farm production, landscape appearance, and the environment: Policy scenario results from an integrated field-farm-landscape model in Austria," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 39-50.
    9. Martina Sartori & Davide Geneletti & Stefano Schiavo & Rocco Scolozzi, 2017. "The impact of climate and land use change on agriculture in EU28: A computable general equilibrium analysis," EcoMod2017 10420, EcoMod.
    10. Zimmermann, Andrea & Webber, Heidi & Zhao, Gang & Ewert, Frank & Kros, Johannes & Wolf, Joost & Britz, Wolfgang & de Vries, Wim, 2017. "Climate change impacts on crop yields, land use and environment in response to crop sowing dates and thermal time requirements," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 81-92.
    11. Carraresi, Laura & Banterle, Alessandro, 2015. "Agri-food Competitive Performance in EU Countries: A Fifteen-Year Retrospective," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 18(2), pages 1-26, May.
    12. Schönhart, Martin & Mitter, Hermine & Schmid, Erwin & Heinrich, Georg & Gobiet, Andreas, 2014. "Integrated Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Austrian Agriculture," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 63(03), pages 1-21, September.
    13. Schönhart, Martin & Mitter, Hermine & Schmid, Erwin & Heinrich, Georg & Gobiet, Andreas, 2014. "Integrated Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Austrian Agriculture," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 63(3).
    14. Bakhtmina Zia & Dr Muhammad Rafiq PhD Research Scholar & Institute of Management Sciences & Peshawar & Pakistan & Associate Professor & Institute of Management Sciences & Peshawar & Pakistan, 2020. "Reviewing climate change and agricultural market competitiveness," Papers 2008.13726, arXiv.org.
    15. Bakhtmina Zia & Muhammad Rafiq & Shahab E. Saqib & Muhammad Atiq, 2022. "Agricultural Market Competitiveness in the Context of Climate Change: A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-22, March.
    16. Syed Asif Ali Naqvi & Abdul Majeed Nadeem & Muhammad Amjed Iqbal & Sadia Ali & Asia Naseem, 2019. "Assessing the Vulnerabilities of Current and Future Production Systems in Punjab, Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-13, September.
    17. Schönhart, Martin & Schauppenlehner, Thomas & Schmid, Erwin, 2014. "Integrated land use modelling of climate change impacts in two Austrian case study landscapes at field level," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182680, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Aurbacher, Joachim & Parker, Phillip S. & Calberto Sánchez, Germán A. & Steinbach, Jennifer & Reinmuth, Evelyn & Ingwersen, Joachim & Dabbert, Stephan, 2013. "Influence of climate change on short term management of field crops – A modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 44-57.

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