IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v187y2020ics0165176519304409.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Months for benchmark dominance: A new accuracy measure for state employment data

Author

Listed:
  • Phillips, Keith R.
  • Teng, Judy S.

Abstract

Employment growth is one of the most commonly used measures of the economic health of U.S. states. While the CES jobs data is timely and available by industry, for many states the early estimates are subject to large revisions, significantly reducing the usefulness of the series. Much of the error, however, cancels out when taking growth over several months. In this paper we evaluate the benchmark revisions by state and produce a quality guidepost that determines the months of growth needed to be calculated such that the early estimates are more representative of the benchmark growth than due to error.

Suggested Citation

  • Phillips, Keith R. & Teng, Judy S., 2020. "Months for benchmark dominance: A new accuracy measure for state employment data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:187:y:2020:i:c:s0165176519304409
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108873
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176519304409
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108873?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Phillips, Keith R. & Nordlund, James, 2012. "The efficiency of the benchmark revisions to the current employment statistics (CES) data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 431-434.
    2. Franklin D. Berger & Keith R. Phillips, 1994. "The disappearing January blip and other state employment mysteries," Working Papers 9403, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Franklin D. Berger & Keith R. Phillips, 1994. "Solving the mystery of the disappearing January blip in state employment data," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 53-62.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brave, Scott A. & Gascon, Charles & Kluender, William & Walstrum, Thomas, 2021. "Predicting benchmarked US state employment data in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1261-1275.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keith R. Phillips & Jianguo Wang, 2015. "Seasonal adjustment of state and metro ces jobs data," Working Papers 1505, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Lori L. Taylor & Mine K. Yücel, 1996. "The interest rate sensitivity of Texas industry," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 27-33.
    3. Emilia Tomczyk, 2013. "End of sample vs. real time data: perspectives for analysis of expectations," Working Papers 68, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    4. Thomas M. FULLERTON & Macie Z. SUBIA, 2017. "Metropolitan Business Cycle Analysis for Lubbock," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 33-52, March.
    5. Eiji Goto & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Tara M. Sinclair & Simon van Norden, 2023. "Employment reconciliation and nowcasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1007-1017, November.
    6. Brave, Scott A. & Gascon, Charles & Kluender, William & Walstrum, Thomas, 2021. "Predicting benchmarked US state employment data in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1261-1275.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Data revision; Data accuracy; Payroll employment; Current analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:187:y:2020:i:c:s0165176519304409. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.