Drug trafficking fuels violence leading to mass emigration: The case of Guatemala

Emigration from Guatemala has surged in recent decades and been studied primarily in relation to the United States, overlooking that Mexico has also become an important destination. Recent literature suggests violence is fueling migration, but the causal mechanisms remain poorly understood. We estimate the impact of violence on emigration crossings from Guatemala during 2009–2017 using the Survey of Migration to Mexico's Southern Border. Guatemala is the world's main cocaine corridor, where criminal organizations deforest to smuggle cocaine from Colombia and launder money. Using shift-share IV, we show that exogenous cocaine seizures in Colombia, which reduce supply and lead to higher cocaine prices, increase violence in Guatemala as criminal organizations compete for a more lucrative drug market. In response, more male adults and minors emigrate, mostly to Mexico. Emigration increases more in municipalities with higher homicide rates relative to those in Mexico and higher deforestation. The findings contribute to the debate on migration and anti-drug trafficking policies.