IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v292y2024ics0378377423005139.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Improving efficiency and sustainability of water-agriculture-energy nexus in a transboundary river basin under climate change: A double-sided stochastic factional optimization method

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Y.F.
  • Li, Y.P.
  • Huang, G.H.
  • Zhai, X.B.
  • Ma, Y.

Abstract

In this study, a double-sided stochastic fractional programming (DSFP) method is developed for identifying optimal water-allocation schemes of water-agriculture-energy nexus (WAEN) system under considering climate change impact. The advantages of DSFP are (i) handling complex uncertainty of double-sided randomness, (ii) addressing conflicting objectives with optimal system efficiency, and (iii) achieving trade-off between marginal benefit and system risk. Then, a DSFP-based water-agriculture-energy nexus (DSFP-WAEN) model is formulated for water resources allocation in a transboundary river basin of Central Asia, where 48 scenarios are designed to examine the impacts of climate change, irrigation efficiency, and system risk over a long-term planning horizon (2026–2050). Results reveal that: (i) among all agricultural activities, cash crop cultivation shows the greatest change in adaption to climate change, with the share of cash crop cultivation increasing to 70.7% by 2050 under RCP4.5; (ii) Kazakhstan, which has the largest irrigation needs and is the county most sensitive to water supply risk, should be the first to be constrained in the case of severe water shortages and poor delivery levels; (iii) the improvement of irrigation efficiency can increase the inflow to the Aral Sea by 2.7%, and reduce water loss of infield irrigation by 11.3% even under severe water shortage (i.e. p = 0.01). Compared with the models based on the traditional stochastic programming and single-objective methods, DSFP-WAEN has advantages in optimizing water-use efficiency and reflecting system complexity with flexible solutions. To coordinate transboundary water conflicts, strategies from both demand and supply sides related to quota management and water-saving techniques are suggested for the Syr Darya River basin, such as clean energy transition, drip irrigation promotion and canal system improvement. From a long-term planning perspective, WAEN schemes should be adapted to risk attitude and climate change, which can help address water scarcity and achieve future sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Y.F. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Zhai, X.B. & Ma, Y., 2024. "Improving efficiency and sustainability of water-agriculture-energy nexus in a transboundary river basin under climate change: A double-sided stochastic factional optimization method," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:292:y:2024:i:c:s0378377423005139
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108648
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377423005139
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2023.108648?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. Sun & Y. P. Li & X. W. Zhuang & S.W. Jin & G. H. Huang & R. F. Feng, 2018. "Identifying water resources management strategies in adaptation to climate change under uncertainty," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 553-578, April.
    2. Aliya Aktymbayeva & Arailym Orazgaliyeva & Aizhan Omarova & Anvar Tulaganov & Aigul Akhmetova & Yuliya Tyurina & Marija Troyanskaya, 2021. "The Central Asian Economies of Water-energy security: The Future Role of Hydro and Fuel-based Systems," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 417-425.
    3. Tianlin Zhai & Jing Wang & Ying Fang & Longyang Huang & Jingjing Liu & Chenchen Zhao, 2021. "Integrating Ecosystem Services Supply, Demand and Flow in Ecological Compensation: A Case Study of Carbon Sequestration Services," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Pizarro, E. & Galleguillos, M. & Barría, P. & Callejas, R., 2022. "Irrigation management or climate change ? Which is more important to cope with water shortage in the production of table grape in a Mediterranean context," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    5. Inas El-Gafy & Defne Apul, 2021. "Expanding the Dynamic Modeling of Water-Food-Energy Nexus to Include Environmental, Economic, and Social Aspects Based on Life Cycle Assessment Thinking," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(13), pages 4349-4362, October.
    6. Ahmadzadeh, Hojat & Mansouri, Bahareh & Fathian, Farshad & Vaheddoost, Babak, 2022. "Assessment of water demand reliability using SWAT and RIBASIM models with respect to climate change and operational water projects," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    7. Angela Huang & Fi-John Chang, 2021. "Prospects for Rooftop Farming System Dynamics: An Action to Stimulate Water-Energy-Food Nexus Synergies toward Green Cities of Tomorrow," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-19, August.
    8. Sun, J. & Li, Y.P. & Suo, C. & Liu, J., 2020. "Development of an uncertain water-food-energy nexus model for pursuing sustainable agricultural and electric productions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    9. Shan Zou & Abuduwaili Jilili & Weili Duan & Philippe De Maeyer & Tim Van de Voorde, 2019. "Human and Natural Impacts on the Water Resources in the Syr Darya River Basin, Central Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, May.
    10. Hasanzadeh Saray, Marzieh & Baubekova, Aziza & Gohari, Alireza & Eslamian, Seyed Saeid & Klove, Bjorn & Torabi Haghighi, Ali, 2022. "Optimization of Water-Energy-Food Nexus considering CO2 emissions from cropland: A case study in northwest Iran," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yue, Qiong & Guo, Ping, 2021. "Managing agricultural water-energy-food-environment nexus considering water footprint and carbon footprint under uncertainty," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    2. Wei Shi & Fuwei Qiao & Liang Zhou, 2021. "Identification of Ecological Risk Zoning on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from the Perspective of Ecosystem Service Supply and Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-17, May.
    3. Yinghou Huang & Binbin Huang & Tianling Qin & Hanjiang Nie & Jianwei Wang & Xing Li & Zhenqian Shen, 2019. "Assessment of Hydrological Changes and Their Influence on the Aquatic Ecology over the last 58 Years in Ganjiang Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-19, September.
    4. Ren, Hourui & Liu, Bin & Zhang, Zirui & Li, Fuxin & Pan, Ke & Zhou, Zhongli & Xu, Xiaoshuang, 2022. "A water-energy-food-carbon nexus optimization model for sustainable agricultural development in the Yellow River Basin under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).
    5. Fang Wan & Yu Wang & Xiangnan Zhou & Xiaokang Zheng & Jian Wu & Lingfeng Xiao, 2022. "Study on Balanced Allocation of Water Resources in the Yellow River Basin Based on Water Benefit Sharing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    6. Ruan, Hongwei & Yu, Jingjie & Wang, Ping & Hao, Lingang & Wang, Zhenlong, 2023. "Relieving water stress by optimizing crop structure is a practicable approach in arid transboundary rivers of Central Asia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    7. Feng, Meiqing & Chen, Yaning & Duan, Weili & Fang, Gonghuan & li, Zhi & Jiao, Li & Sun, Fan & Li, Yupeng & Hou, Yifeng, 2022. "Comprehensive evaluation of the water-energy-food nexus in the agricultural management of the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    8. Stefano Bruzzese & Wasim Ahmed & Simone Blanc & Filippo Brun, 2022. "Ecosystem Services: A Social and Semantic Network Analysis of Public Opinion on Twitter," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-15, November.
    9. Boran Zhu & Junqiang Lin & Yi Liu & Di Zhang & Qidong Peng & Yufeng Ren & Jiejie Chen & Yi Xu, 2024. "Multi-Risk Interaction Analysis of Cascade Hydropower Stations Based on System Dynamics Simulation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(1), pages 45-62, January.
    10. Zhihao Xu & Zhiqiang Lv & Jianbo Li & Anshuo Shi, 2022. "A Novel Approach for Predicting Water Demand with Complex Patterns Based on Ensemble Learning," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(11), pages 4293-4312, September.
    11. Radmehr, Riza & Ghorbani, Mohammad & Ziaei, Ali Naghi, 2021. "Quantifying and managing the water-energy-food nexus in dry regions food insecurity: New methods and evidence," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    12. Hourieh Masaeli & Alireza Gohari & Marzieh Hasanzadeh Saray & Ali Torabi Haghighi, 2023. "Developing a new water–energy–food‐greenhouse gases nexus tool for sustainable agricultural landscape management," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 877-892, April.
    13. Altanshagai Batmunkh & Agus Dwi Nugroho & Maria Fekete-Farkas & Zoltan Lakner, 2022. "Global Challenges and Responses: Agriculture, Economic Globalization, and Environmental Sustainability in Central Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-21, February.
    14. Yue, Qiong & Guo, Ping & Wu, Hui & Wang, Youzhi & Zhang, Chenglong, 2022. "Towards sustainable circular agriculture: An integrated optimization framework for crop-livestock-biogas-crop recycling system management under uncertainty," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    15. Ma, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Zhang, Y.F. & Liu, Y.R. & Wang, H. & Ding, Y.K., 2022. "Planning water-food-ecology nexus system under uncertainty: Tradeoffs and synergies in Central Asia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    16. Tianlin Zhai & Yuanbo Ma & Ying Fang & Mingyuan Chang & Longyang Huang & Ziyi Ma & Ling Li & Chenchen Zhao, 2024. "Research on the Optimization of Urban Ecological Infrastructure Based on Ecosystem Service Supply, Demand, and Flow," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-25, February.
    17. Mo Wang & Furong Chen & Dongqing Zhang & Qiuyi Rao & Jianjun Li & Soon Keat Tan, 2022. "Supply–Demand Evaluation of Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) Based on the Model of Coupling Coordination," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-17, November.
    18. Wang, Shuhang & Wang, Xu & Fu, Zhenghui & Liu, Feng & Xu, Ye & Li, Wei, 2022. "A novel energy-water nexus based CHP operation optimization model under water shortage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    19. Sun, J. & Li, Y.P. & Suo, C. & Liu, Y.R., 2019. "Impacts of irrigation efficiency on agricultural water-land nexus system management under multiple uncertainties—A case study in Amu Darya River basin, Central Asia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 76-88.
    20. Kedar Mehta & Mathias Ehrenwirth & Christoph Trinkl & Wilfried Zörner & Rick Greenough, 2021. "The Energy Situation in Central Asia: A Comprehensive Energy Review Focusing on Rural Areas," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-27, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:292:y:2024:i:c:s0378377423005139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.