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Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the UK: evidence from the inflation-indexed bonds market

Author

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  • Marfatia Hardik A.

    (Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Northeastern Illinois University, BBH 344G, 5500 N. St. Louis Ave., Chicago, IL 60625, USA, Phone: +1-773-442-5712)

Abstract

This paper utilizes the information in the inflation-indexed bonds market to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the UK using an unobserved component approach. The main advantage of this approach comes from using the Kalman filter to explicitly estimate the unobserved expected inflation from the observed break-even inflation rates – the yield difference between the inflation-indexed bonds and the nominal bonds. Our results show that the expected inflation estimated from the unobserved component model plays a significant role in explaining the inflation dynamics in the UK. The evidence also suggests that the estimated inflation expectations are better able to capture the evolution of actual inflation process as compared to the break-even inflation rate as a proxy for expected inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Marfatia Hardik A., 2018. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the UK: evidence from the inflation-indexed bonds market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-18, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:18:y:2018:i:1:p:18:n:5
    DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2016-0005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc, 2020. "Anchoring inflation expectations in the face of oil shocks & in the proximity of ZLB: A tale of two targeters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Qing Nie, 2023. "Has the Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price Change in Inflation Expectations Been Impacted by the COVID-19 Outbreak? A Comparison Between the United States and China," Asian Social Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 19(3), pages 1-55, June.
    3. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "Inflation targeting & implications of oil shocks for inflation expectations in oil-importing and exporting economies: Evidence from three Nordic Kingdoms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Duc Huynh, Toan Luu & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through & management of inflation expectations in a small open inflation targeting economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 178-188.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation indexed bonds; New Keynesian Phillips Curve; output gap; unobserved component model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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