IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/rgscpp/v12y2020i6p1063-1103.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Understanding the spatio‐temporal pattern of COVID‐19 outbreak in India using GIS and India's response in managing the pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Rakhohori Bag
  • Manoranjan Ghosh
  • Bapan Biswas
  • Mitrajit Chatterjee

Abstract

Due to the outbreak of Coronavirus, humans all over the world are facing several health problems. The present study has explored the spatio‐temporal pattern of Coronavirus spread in India including spatial clustering, identification of hotspot, spatial heterogeneity, and homogeneity, spatial trend, and direction of COVID‐19 cases using spatial statistical analysis during the period of 30 January to 20 June 2020. Besides, the polynomial regression model has been used for predictions of COVID‐19 affected population and related deaths. The study found positive spatial heterogeneity in COVID‐19 cases in India. The study has also identified 17 epicentres across the country with high incidence rates. The directional distribution of ellipse polygon shows that the spread of COVID‐19 now trending towards the east but the concentration of cases is mainly in the western part of the country. The country's trend of COVID‐19 follows a fourth‐order polynomial growth and is characterized by an increasing trend. The prediction results show that as on 14 October India will reach 14,660,400 COVID‐19 cases and the death toll will cross 152,945. Therefore, a “space‐specific” policy strategy would be a more suitable strategy for reducing the spatial spread of the virus in India. Moreover, the study has broadly found out seven sectors, where the Government of India lacks in terms of confronting the ongoing pandemic. The study has also recommended some appropriate policies which would be immensely useful for the administration to initiate strategic planning. Debido al brote del Coronavirus, los humanos de todo el mundo se enfrentan a varios problemas de salud. En el presente estudio se han explorado las pautas espacio‐temporales de la propagación del Coronavirus en la India, entre ellas la agrupación espacial, la identificación de focos, la heterogeneidad espacial y la homogeneidad, la tendencia espacial y la dirección de los casos de COVID‐19, usando un análisis estadístico espacial para el período entre el 30 de enero y el 20 de junio de 2020. Además, se ha utilizado el modelo de regresión polinómica para las predicciones de la población afectada por COVID‐19 y las muertes relacionadas. El estudio encontró una heterogeneidad espacial positiva en los casos de COVID‐19 en la India. También identificó 17 epicentros en todo el país con altas tasas de incidencia. La distribución direccional del polígono de la elipse muestra que la propagación de COVID‐19 ahora tiende hacia el este, pero la concentración de casos se encuentra principalmente en la parte occidental del país. La tendencia del país para COVID‐19 sigue un crecimiento polinómico de cuarto orden y se caracteriza por una tendencia al alza. Los resultados de la predicción muestran que, a 14 de octubre, la India alcanzará 14.660.400 casos de COVID‐19 y el número de muertes sobrepasará las 152.945. Por consiguiente, una estrategia política “espacialmente específica” sería una estrategia más adecuada para reducir la propagación espacial del virus en la India. Además, el estudio ha descubierto en general siete sectores en los que el Gobierno de la India carece de medios para hacer frente a la pandemia. En el estudio también se recomiendan algunas políticas apropiadas que serían inmensamente útiles para que la administración inicie una planificación estratégica. 新型コロナウイルスの発生により、世界中の人々は健康問題に直面している。本稿では、2020年1月30日~6月20日の期間で、新型コロナウイルス感染症 (COVID‐19)症例の空間クラスタリングや、ホットスポット、空間的な異質性及び同質性、空間的トレンド、方向性を、空間的統計分析を用いて特定し、インドにおけるコロナウイルスの拡大の時空間パターンを探索する。本研究から、インドのCOVID‐19症例には間的異質性が認められ、全国で、発生率の高い17のエピセンターも確認された。楕円多角形の方向分布は、現在COVID‐19は東に向かって拡大しているが、症例は主に国の西部に集中していることを示している。インドにおけるCOVID‐19のトレンドは4次多項式的に上昇する増加傾向が特徴である。インドのCOVID‐19症例は、10月14日の時点で14,660,400例に達し、COVID‐19による死亡者数は152,945人を超えると予想された。そのため、インドにおける新型コロナウイルスの空間的拡大を抑制するための戦略としては、地域に特異的な政策をとることがより適切であると考えられる。さらに、現在も続くパンデミックに対処する上でインド政府に不足している7つの分野が明らかになった。また、インド政府が戦略的計画を開始する際に非常に有用となると考えられる、適切な政策を推奨する。

Suggested Citation

  • Rakhohori Bag & Manoranjan Ghosh & Bapan Biswas & Mitrajit Chatterjee, 2020. "Understanding the spatio‐temporal pattern of COVID‐19 outbreak in India using GIS and India's response in managing the pandemic," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(6), pages 1063-1103, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:rgscpp:v:12:y:2020:i:6:p:1063-1103
    DOI: 10.1111/rsp3.12359
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12359
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/rsp3.12359?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nuriah Abd Majid & Nurafiqah Muhamad Nazi & Ahmad Fariz Mohamed, 2019. "Distribution and Spatial Pattern Analysis on Dengue Cases in Seremban District, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-14, June.
    2. Yanguang Chen, 2013. "New Approaches for Calculating Moran’s Index of Spatial Autocorrelation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-14, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huang, Wei, 2019. "Forest condition change, tenure reform, and government-funded eco-environmental programs in Northeast China," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 67-74.
    2. Francesco Tolu & Mario Palermo & Maria Pina Dore & Alessandra Errigo & Ana Canelada & Michel Poulain & Giovanni Mario Pes, 2019. "Association of endemic goitre and exceptional longevity in Sardinia: evidence from an ecological study," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 405-414, December.
    3. Gertrudes Saúde Guerreiro & António Bento Caleiro, 2016. "The Spatial Convergence of Knowledge in Portugal," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 6(1), pages 1082-1082.
    4. Ffion Carney, 2021. "Linking Loyalty Card Data to Public Transport Data to Explore Mobility and Social Exclusion in the Older Population," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, May.
    5. Guerreiro, Gertrudes & Caleiro, António, 2014. "A convergência espacial do conhecimento em Portugal [The spatial convergence of knowledge in Portugal]," MPRA Paper 56176, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Rakin Abrar & Showmitra Kumar Sarkar & Kashfia Tasnim Nishtha & Swapan Talukdar & Shahfahad & Atiqur Rahman & Abu Reza Md Towfiqul Islam & Amir Mosavi, 2022. "Assessing the Spatial Mapping of Heat Vulnerability under Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect in the Dhaka Metropolitan Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-24, April.
    7. Yanguang Chen, 2016. "Spatial Autocorrelation Approaches to Testing Residuals from Least Squares Regression," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, January.
    8. Pinto, Erveton P. & Pires, Marcelo A. & Matos, Robert S. & Zamora, Robert R.M. & Menezes, Rodrigo P. & Araújo, Raquel S. & de Souza, Tiago M., 2021. "Lacunarity exponent and Moran index: A complementary methodology to analyze AFM images and its application to chitosan films," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).
    9. Liu, Yan-Ping & Wang, Lin & Zhang, Feng & Wang, Rui-Wu, 2020. "Diffusion sustains cooperation via forming diverse spatial patterns in prisoner's dilemma game," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 375(C).
    10. Inna MANAEVA & Anna TKACHEVA, 2021. "Analysis Of Urban Connectivity Effects Of The Southern Federal District," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 103-116, June.
    11. Getayeneh Antehunegn Tesema & Tesfaye Hambisa Mekonnen & Achamyeleh Birhanu Teshale, 2020. "Spatial distribution and determinants of abortion among reproductive age women in Ethiopia, evidence from Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2016 data: Spatial and mixed-effect analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-17, June.
    12. Adivânia Cardoso da Silva & Paulo Sérgio Scalize, 2023. "Environmental Variables Related to Aedes aegypti Breeding Spots and the Occurrence of Arbovirus Diseases," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-21, May.
    13. Inna MANAEVA & Anna TKACHEVA & Elena CHENTSOVA & Elena ILYICHEVA, 2021. "Assessment Of The Interconnectedness Of Cities In The Russian Far East," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(2), pages 123-133, June.
    14. Tian, Yuan & Sun, Chuanwang & Ren, Yi & Liu, Kang & Zuo, Zulin, 2023. "Tax competition, spatial correlation and regional integration development——Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    15. Mohd ‘Ammar Ihsan Ahmad Zamzuri & Farah Nabila Abd Majid & Rahmat Dapari & Mohd Rohaizat Hassan & Abd Majid Mohd Isa, 2022. "Perceived Risk for Dengue Infection Mediates the Relationship between Attitude and Practice for Dengue Prevention: A Study in Seremban, Malaysia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-17, October.
    16. Yanguang Chen, 2020. "New framework of Getis-Ord’s indexes associating spatial autocorrelation with interaction," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-25, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:rgscpp:v:12:y:2020:i:6:p:1063-1103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1757-7802 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.