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Public Information and Abnormal Returns in Real Estate Investment

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  • George W. Gau

Abstract

This study performs empirical tests of the semistrong form efficiency of a real estate investment market. An asset pricing model is utilized to estimate the abnormal returns resulting from two types of public information, major changes in government tax shelter and rent control policies as well as unanticipated changes in interest rates. In both cases the results find an absence of significant abnormal returns and no evidence to suggest that real estate investors can utilize information concerning government policy changes or interest rate movements to earn higher returns on a risk‐adjusted basis. In general the findings of this study conform to the semistrong form version of the efficient markets hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • George W. Gau, 1985. "Public Information and Abnormal Returns in Real Estate Investment," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(1), pages 15-31, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:13:y:1985:i:1:p:15-31
    DOI: 10.1111/1540-6229.00338
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    Cited by:

    1. Feng Deng, 2020. "Intrametropolitan variation of urban structure and housing price: the case of Chongqing, China," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 639-655, October.
    2. Maier, Gunther & Herath, Shanaka, 2009. "Real Estate Market Efficiency. A Survey of Literature," SRE-Discussion Papers 2009/07, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    3. Terrance R. Skantz & Thomas H. Strickland, 1987. "House Prices and a Flood Event: An Empirical Investigation of Market Efficiency," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 2(2), pages 75-83.
    4. Felix Schindler, 2013. "Predictability and Persistence of the Price Movements of the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Indices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 44-90, January.
    5. Lin, Wen-Yuan & Tsai, I-Chun, 2019. "Trader differences in Shanghai’s A-share and B-share markets: Effects on interaction with the Shanghai housing market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Kyriakou, Maria I. & Babalos, Vassilios & Kiohos, Apostolos & Koulakiotis, Athanasios, 2020. "Feedback trading strategies and long-term volatility," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 181-189.
    7. Tsai, I-Chun & Peng, Chien-Wen, 2016. "Linear and nonlinear dynamic relationships between housing prices and trading volumes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 172-184.
    8. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March.
    9. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    10. Esra ALP & Ünal SEVEN, 2019. "Türkiye Konut Piyasasında Etkinlik Analizi," Istanbul Business Research, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 48(1), pages 84-112, May.
    11. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
    12. Alan W. Evans, 1995. "The Property Market: Ninety Per Cent Efficient?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 32(1), pages 5-29, February.
    13. David Geltner, 1989. "Estimating Real Estate's Systematic Risk from Aggregate Level Appraisal‐Based Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 463-481, December.
    14. William L. Attebery & Ronald C. Rutherford & Mark E. Eakin, 1993. "Industrial Real Estate Prices and Market Efficiency," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 377-386.
    15. Jim Clayton, 1998. "Further Evidence on Real Estate Market Efficiency," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 15(1), pages 41-58.
    16. Felix Schindler, 2014. "Persistence and Predictability in UK House Price Movements," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 132-163, January.
    17. George Milunovich, 2020. "Forecasting Australia's real house price index: A comparison of time series and machine learning methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1098-1118, November.
    18. Thomas M. Carroll & Terrence M. Clauretie & Helen R. Neill, 1997. "Effect of Foreclosure Status on Residential Selling Price: Comment," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(1), pages 95-102.
    19. El-Jahel, Lina & MacCulloch, Robert, 2021. "Trading in the housing market: A model with transaction costs," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 89-96.

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