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Migration Creation and Diversion in the European Union: Is Central and Eastern Europe a ‘Natural’ Member of the Single Market for Labour?

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  • HELENA MARQUES

Abstract

This article applies the concepts of trade creation and trade diversion to immigration into the EU‐15 in order to investigate whether during 1986–2006 there were any significant preference effects in favour of the CEECs (central and eastern European countries) that make them ‘natural’ members of the EU single market for labour. If this hypothesis is true, there should have been strong migration creation but little migration diversion in the last 20 years. The results broadly support migration creation for the CEECs prior to their EU membership. At the same time, the evidence of diversion away from other world regions is mixed. The combined impact of a common language and established communities, compared to distance and a common border, may contribute to the preservation of migration channels from outside Europe. Within Europe, to be an EU outsider can have a negative impact on migration channels. Moreover, whilst liberal immigration policies increase immigration contemporaneously, restrictive immigration policies only show an impact with a two‐year lag.

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  • Helena Marques, 2010. "Migration Creation and Diversion in the European Union: Is Central and Eastern Europe a ‘Natural’ Member of the Single Market for Labour?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 265-291, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:48:y:2010:i:2:p:265-291
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5965.2009.02052.x
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