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Employment volatility in lagging and advanced regions: The Italian case

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  • Hasan Engin Duran
  • Ugo Fratesi

Abstract

The presence of cycles characterizes all economic systems, but economic cycles have differentiated spatial impacts. Some regions have broader cycles with respect to the country, while others tend to be less responsive to shocks and hence have narrower cycles. Being exposed to broader cycles, that is, greater volatility, may increase the strain on a regional economic system. This paper investigates the different responsiveness to cyclical forces and volatility of regions in the long run. It does so by using quarterly employment data for the Nuts2 Italian regions over almost 40 years before and during the period 1978–2016. Explored in particular are the cross‐regional variations in employment volatility and the reasons for the patterns observed, as well as whether they have changed the following different macroeconomic policy regimes. The paper identifies the break dates of different regimes, and these regime changes will be related to policy modifications, such as the implementation of the European Monetary Union. The determinants of this regional volatility appear to be quite stable, so that the changes in volatility are explained by how these determinants have changed overtime and how they are unevenly distributed in space. In particular, the lagging regions of the country suffer, in addition to lower production and income, from higher volatility due to a structure which is weaker and more unstable. Volatility can hence be an additional issue for lagging regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hasan Engin Duran & Ugo Fratesi, 2020. "Employment volatility in lagging and advanced regions: The Italian case," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 207-233, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:growch:v:51:y:2020:i:1:p:207-233
    DOI: 10.1111/grow.12351
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    Cited by:

    1. Hasan Engin Duran & Pawe³ Gajewski, 2023. "State-level Taylor rule and monetary policy stress," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 18(1), pages 89-120, March.
    2. Elena Lyaskovskaya & Gulnaz Khalilova & Kristina Grigorieva, 2023. "Dynamic Analysis of the EU Countries Sustainability: Methods, Models, and Case Study," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-40, November.
    3. Rizwan Khalid & Choudhry Tanveer Shehzad & Bushra Naqvi, 2023. "Impact of capital account liberalization on stock market crashes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3700-3726, October.
    4. Nishi, Hiroshi, 2022. "Industrial sources and unevenness of regional employment resilience in Japan," MPRA Paper 113530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Hasan Engin Duran & Ugo Fratesi, 2023. "Economic resilience and regionally differentiated cycles: Evidence from a turning point approach in Italy," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(2), pages 219-252, April.

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