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A Hedonic Price Analysis of Farmland Option Premiums Under Urban Influences

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  • Tamer Isgin
  • D. Lynn Forster

Abstract

An emerging theory, real option pricing, suggests that an important component of urban fringe farmland values may be the option value arising from nearby urban development. This new option pricing theory, as opposed to its standard conventional counterpart in finance, incorporates both the uncertainty about the future net benefits of a land conversion decision and the irreversibility of this action taken. We demonstrate that parsimonious empirical hedonic models of the errors‐in‐variables type, when corrected for heteroskedasticity, can provide adequate representations of farmland option premiums. Data for a random sample of cash rented Ohio farmland parcels are used, and the impacts of urban development on farmland option premiums are estimated. Results provide evidence that (a) both land‐use conversion probability and urban influences have been important factors affecting the option value of the state's farmland, and (b) these option premiums associated with irreversible and uncertain land development are capitalized into farmland values. Une nouvelle théorie, l'évaluation des options réelles, semble indiquer qu'un élément important de la valeur des terres agricoles périurbaines pourrait être la valeur d'option découlant du développement urbain avoisinant. Cette nouvelle théorie, contrairement aux options financières, inclut à la fois l'incertitude quant aux bénéfices nets futurs liés à la décision de convertir une terre et l'irréversibilité de cette décision. Nous avons démontré que les modèles empiriques parcimonieux et hédoniques du type erreurs sur les variables peuvent, une fois l'hétéroscédasticité corrigée, donner des présentations adéquates des prix de l'option des terres agricoles. Nous avons utilisé les données d'un échantillon aléatoire de parcelles de terres agricoles louées au comptant en Ohio et nous avons estimé l'impact du développement urbain sur le prix de l'option des terres agricoles. Les résultats ont montré: a) que la probabilité de conversion de l'utilisation des terres et les influences urbaines sont des facteurs importants qui influent sur la valeur de l'option des terres agricoles de l'État; b) que ces prix de l'option associés à un aménagement urbain irréversible et incertain sont intégrés dans la valeur des terres agricoles.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamer Isgin & D. Lynn Forster, 2006. "A Hedonic Price Analysis of Farmland Option Premiums Under Urban Influences," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 54(3), pages 327-340, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:54:y:2006:i:3:p:327-340
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1744-7976.2006.00053.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Turvey, Calum G., 1999. "Real Options And Agricultural Land Values," 1999 Regional Committee NC-221, 1999, Mississauga, Ontario, Canada 132334, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
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    1. Yemshanov, Denys & McCarney, Geoffrey R. & Hauer, Grant & Luckert, M.K. (Marty) & Unterschultz, Jim & McKenney, Daniel W., 2015. "A real options-net present value approach to assessing land use change: A case study of afforestation in Canada," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 327-336.
    2. James R. Wasson & Donald M. McLeod & Christopher T. Bastian & Benjamin S. Rashford, 2013. "The Effects of Environmental Amenities on Agricultural Land Values," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(3), pages 466-478.
    3. Vasco Capela Tavares & Fernando Tavares & Eulália Santos, 2022. "The Value of Farmland and Its Determinants—The Current State of the Art," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-14, October.
    4. Pam Guiling & B. Wade Brorsen & Damona Doye, 2009. "Effect of Urban Proximity on Agricultural Land Values," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(2), pages 252-264.
    5. Cotteleer, Geerte & Stobbe, Tracy & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2008. "Expert Opinion versus Transaction Evidence: Using the Reilly Index to Measure Open Space Premiums in the Urban-Rural Fringe," Working Papers 37085, University of Victoria, Resource Economics and Policy.
    6. Jean Cavailhés & Isabelle Thomas, 2011. "The influence of urban sprawl on farmland prices in Belgium (refereed paper)," ERSA conference papers ersa10p1628, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Jean Cavailhès & Mohamed Hilal & Pierre Wavresky, 2011. "L’influence urbaine sur le prix des terres agricoles et ses conséquences pour l’agriculture," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 444(1), pages 99-125.
    8. Jean Cavailhès & Mohamed Hilal & Pierre Wavresky, 2011. "Urban influence of farmland prices and its impact on agriculture [L'influence urbaine sur le prix des terres agricoles et ses conséquences pour l'agriculture]," Post-Print hal-02645617, HAL.
    9. Geerte Cotteleer & Cornelis Gardebroek & Jan Luijt, 2008. "Market Power in a GIS-Based Hedonic Price Model of Local Farmland Markets," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 84(4), pages 573-592.
    10. Pei-Ing Wu & Ching-En Su & Je-Liang Liou & Ta-Ken Huang, 2023. "Evaluation of the Contribution of Farmland Attributes to the Total Benefit from Its Contamination Remediation: Evidence from Taiwan," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-22, April.
    11. Forster, D. Lynn, 2006. "An Overview of U.S. Farm Real Estate Markets," Working Papers 28319, Ohio State University, Department of Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics.

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