IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/apa/ijbaas/2020p323-336.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determination of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Rupiah Against US Dollar and its Volatility: Application of Asset Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Dennij Mandeij

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, Sam Ratulangi University, Manado, Indonesia)

Abstract

The prevailing exchange rate and its volatility has been always an important issue in an open economy and freely floating exchange rate system, such as in Indonesia. In this system, the exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate based on the interaction between demand for and supply of foreign currency in the foreign exchange market. Its fluctuation may influence many economic activities and can be transmitted to the inflation rate. This shows that the prevailing exchange rate and its volatility become a crucial variable that must be taken into account by all economic actors. This paper aims to describe the application of asset approach in determining the equilibrium exchange rate Rupiah against US$ and analyze the factors that influence its volatility. The analysis method used is the applied method based on the theory of Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) condition. The result shows that the actual exchange rate is completely different from the equilibrium exchange rate where Rupiah is undervalued towards US$. It reflects that the demand for US$ is greater than its supply which means that foreign exchange market is not in equilibrium. When all else equal, a decreasing of Rupiah interest rate, an increasing of US$ interest rate and a rising of expected future exchange rate, respectively, will depreciate Rupiah against US$. The changing of these three factors can show and describe clearly its effect on the volatility of exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennij Mandeij, 2020. "Determination of Equilibrium Exchange Rate Rupiah Against US Dollar and its Volatility: Application of Asset Approach," International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, Professor Dr. Bahaudin G. Mujtaba, vol. 6(6), pages 323-336.
    • Handle: RePEc:apa:ijbaas:2020:p:323-336
    DOI: 10.20469/ijbas.6.10004-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://kkgpublications.com/business-v6-i6-article-4/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://kkgpublications.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/ijbas.6.10004-6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.20469/ijbas.6.10004-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian-Zhou Teng & Muhammad Imran Khan, 2019. "Cointegration between macroeconomic factors and the exchange rate USD/CNY," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, December.
    2. Koijen, Ralph & Yogo, Motohiro, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Asset Prices in a Global Demand System," CEPR Discussion Papers 14874, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Lukas Kremens & Ian Martin, 2019. "The Quanto Theory of Exchange Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(3), pages 810-843, March.
    4. Kesavarajah Mayandy, 2019. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence From Sri Lanka," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 485-506, December.
    5. repec:idn:journl:v:18:y:2019:i:1d:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Ngan Tran, 2018. "The long-run analysis of monetary policy transmission channels on inflation: a VECM approach," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 17-30, January.
    7. repec:idn:journl:v:22:y:2019:i:3d:p:1-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:idn:journl:v:1:y:2019:i:sp1:p:1-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Tule Kpughur Moses & Oboh Ugbem Victor & Ebuh Godday Uwawunkonye & Onipede Samuel Fumilade & Gbadebo Nathaniel, 2020. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Economic Growth in Nigeria?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(7), pages 1-54, July.
    10. Sugeng & M. Noor Nugroho & Ibrahim & Yanfitri, 2010. "Effects of Foreign Exchange Supply and Demand Dynamics to Rupiah Exchange Rate and Economic Performance," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 12(3), pages 1-40, January.
    11. Jan Priewe, 2017. "Review of exchange-rate theories in four leading economics textbooks," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 32-47, April.
    12. Haryo Kuncoro, 2020. "Interest Rate Policy and Exchange Rates Volatility Lessons from Indonesia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(2), pages 19-42.
    13. Borrallo Egea, Fructuoso & Hierro, Luis Ángel, 2019. "Transmission of monetary policy in the US and EU in times of expansion and crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 763-783.
    14. Barguellil, Achouak & Ben-Salha, Ousama & Zmami, Mourad, 2018. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 33(2), pages 1302-1336.
    15. Mahir Binici & Hakan Kara & Pınar Özlü, 2019. "Monetary transmission with multiple policy rates: evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(17), pages 1869-1893, April.
    16. repec:idn:journl:v:22:y:2019:i:3b:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jason Allen & Milena Wittwer, 2023. "Centralizing Over-the-Counter Markets?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 131(12), pages 3310-3351.
    2. Stephan Heblich & Stephen J. Redding & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2022. "Slavery and the British Industrial Revolution," CEP Discussion Papers dp1884, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Rui Hua & Wenzhe Hu & Xiuju Zhao, 2020. "Research on RMB exchange rate forecast based on the neural network model and the Nelson–Siegel model," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(3), pages 219-237, September.
    4. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," Working Papers 786, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Shikha Singh & Mandira Sarma, 2020. "Financial Structure and Stability: An Empirical Exploration," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 9-32.
    6. Haryo Kuncoro & Caroline Geetha & Fafurida Fafurida, 2024. "Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility in the Inflation-Targeting Regime," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 2-15, June.
    7. Valentina Bruno & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2022. "Dollar beta and stock returns," Oxford Open Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1, pages 1-10.
    8. Fan, Zhenzhen & Londono, Juan M. & Xiao, Xiao, 2022. "Equity tail risk and currency risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 484-503.
    9. Goldberg, Linda S. & Krogstrup, Signe, 2023. "International capital flow pressures and global factors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Benny Kleinman & Ernest Liu & Stephen J. Redding & Motohiro Yogo, 2023. "Neoclassical growth in an interdependent world," CEP Discussion Papers dp1965, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    11. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "A review of resource curse burden on inflation in Venezuela," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    12. Hussaini Umaru & Aguda Niyi A. & Nordiana Osagie Davies, 2018. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth of West African English-Speaking Countries," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 8(4), pages 131-143, October.
    13. Indra Abeysekera, 2024. "The Influence of Fiscal, Monetary, and Public Policies on Sustainable Development in Sri Lanka," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-28, January.
    14. Ian W. R. Martin & Christian Wagner, 2019. "What Is the Expected Return on a Stock?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1887-1929, August.
    15. Matías Moretti & Lorenzo Pandolfi & Sergio L. Schmukler & Germán Villegas Bauer & Tomás Williams, 2024. "Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds," CSEF Working Papers 713, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    16. Eda Gulsen & Hakan Kara, 2020. "Formation of inflation expectations: Does macroeconomic and policy environment matter?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2017, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    17. Xiang Fang & Bryan Hardy & Karen K. Lewis, 2022. "Who Holds Sovereign Debt and Why It Matters," NBER Working Papers 30087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Chandan Sharma, 2019. "Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(1), pages 23-44, June.
    19. Petrovska Magdalena & Tonovska Jasna & Nikolov Miso & Sulejmani Artan, 2022. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Effectiveness in North Macedonia: Evidence from a Bayesian Favar Framework," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 67-82, December.
    20. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen & Hyunseung Oh, 2022. "In Search of Dominant Drivers of the Real Exchange Rate," Working Paper Series 2022-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:apa:ijbaas:2020:p:323-336. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Professor Dr. Bahaudin G. Mujtaba (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://kkgpublications.com/business/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.