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In the Long Run, the Multiplier is Dead: Lessons from a Simulation

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  • Ross Guest
  • Anthony J. Makin

Abstract

This paper re-examines the significance of the fiscal multiplier from an inter- temporal perspective using simulation results derived from a standard overlapping- generations framework. It reveals that even if fiscal stimulus in the form of extra public consumption spending is assumed to increased output and employment in the short run, the negative medium to long-term consequences of the stimulus will ultimately exceed, in present-value terms, the short-term macroeconomic benefits of that stimulus. This is due to the interest rate and tax effects of the stimulus-induced budget deficit which lowers future private investment, household consumption, and labour supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross Guest & Anthony J. Makin, 2011. "In the Long Run, the Multiplier is Dead: Lessons from a Simulation," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 13-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:acb:agenda:v:18:y:2011:i:1:p:13-22
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    File URL: http://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/p115201/pdf/ch025.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
    2. Anthony J. Makin, 2007. "Re‐Examining The Effectiveness Of Stabilisation Policy," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 348-359, December.
    3. Ross Guest & Anthony J Makin, 2012. "Fiscal stimulus: an overlapping generations analysis," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 17(2), pages 1-25, September.
    4. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    5. Anthony J. Makin, 2010. "Did Fiscal Stimulus Counter Recession? Evidence from the National Accounts," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201008, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    6. William G. Gale & Peter R. Orszag, 2004. "Budget Deficits, National Saving, and Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 101-210.
    7. William Coleman, 2010. "When Expansionary Fiscal Policy is Contractionary: A Neoklassikal Scenario," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(s1), pages 61-68, September.
    8. Anthony J. Makin, 2010. "Did Australia's Fiscal Stimulus Counter Recession?: Evidence from the National Accounts," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 17(2), pages 5-16.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Gábor P. Kiss, 2020. "Aggregate Fiscal Stabilisation Policy: Panacea or Scapegoat?," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(2), pages 55-87.
    4. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2015. "Can public expenditure stabilize output? Multipliers and policy interdependence in Queensland and Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 69-81.

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