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Structural breaks and volatility forecasting in the copper futures market

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  1. Gong, Xu & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "The incremental information content of investor fear gauge for volatility forecasting in the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 370-386.
  2. Ghabri, Yosra & Ben Rhouma, Oussama & Gana, Marjène & Guesmi, Khaled & Benkraiem, Ramzi, 2022. "Information transmission among energy markets, cryptocurrencies, and stablecoins under pandemic conditions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  3. Guo, Honggang & Wang, Jianzhou & Li, Zhiwu & Lu, Haiyan & Zhang, Linyue, 2022. "A non-ferrous metal price ensemble prediction system based on innovative combined kernel extreme learning machine and chaos theory," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  4. Assaf, Ata & Charif, Husni & Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness between uncertainty and energy markets: Do investor sentiments matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  5. Özbekler, Ali Gencay & Kontonikas, Alexandros & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2021. "Volatility forecasting in European government bond markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1691-1709.
  6. Dai, Zhifeng & Kang, Jie & Hu, Yangli, 2021. "Efficient predictability of oil price: The role of number of IPOs and U.S. dollar index," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  7. Chao Liang & Yin Liao & Feng Ma & Bo Zhu, 2022. "United States Oil Fund volatility prediction: the roles of leverage effect and jumps," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2239-2262, May.
  8. Hui Qu & Tianyang Wang & Peng Shangguan & Mengying He, 2024. "Revisiting the puzzle of jumps in volatility forecasting: The new insights of high‐frequency jump intensity," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(2), pages 218-251, February.
  9. Wu, Nan & Wen, Fenghua & Gong, Xu, 2022. "Marionettes behind co-movement of commodity prices: Roles of speculative and hedging activities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  10. Gong, Xu & Liu, Yun & Wang, Xiong, 2021. "Dynamic volatility spillovers across oil and natural gas futures markets based on a time-varying spillover method," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  11. Lei Pan & Svetlana Maslyuk-Escobedo & Vinod Mishra, 2019. "Carry Trade Returns and Commodity Prices under Capital and Interest Rate Controls: Empirical Evidence from China," Monash Economics Working Papers 16-18, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  12. Fan, Lina & Yang, Hao & Zhai, Jia & Zhang, Xiaotao, 2023. "Forecasting stock volatility during the stock market crash period: The role of Hawkes process," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
  13. Klein, Tony & Todorova, Neda, 2021. "Night trading with futures in China: The case of Aluminum and Copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  14. Yi, Yongsheng & He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Out-of-sample prediction of Bitcoin realized volatility: Do other cryptocurrencies help?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  15. Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Feng Ma & Yu Wei, 2022. "To jump or not to jump: momentum of jumps in crude oil price volatility prediction," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-31, December.
  16. Zhao, Lili & Wen, Fenghua, 2022. "Risk-return relationship and structural breaks: Evidence from China carbon market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 481-492.
  17. He, Zhifang, 2020. "Dynamic impacts of crude oil price on Chinese investor sentiment: Nonlinear causality and time-varying effect," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 131-153.
  18. Xu, Weiju & Ma, Feng & Chen, Wang & Zhang, Bing, 2019. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between oil and stock markets: Evidence from China and the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 310-320.
  19. Chao Liang & Yan Li & Feng Ma & Yaojie Zhang, 2022. "Forecasting international equity market volatility: A new approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1433-1457, November.
  20. Wen, Chufu & Zhu, Haoyang & Dai, Zhifeng, 2023. "Forecasting commodity prices returns: The role of partial least squares approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  21. Liu, Jing & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Yaojie, 2019. "Forecasting the Chinese stock volatility across global stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 466-477.
  22. Xu Gong & Boqiang Lin, 2021. "Effects of structural changes on the prediction of downside volatility in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1124-1153, July.
  23. Yang, Xin & Wen, Shigang & Zhao, Xian & Huang, Chuangxia, 2020. "Systemic importance of financial institutions: A complex network perspective," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
  24. Mei, Dexiang & Zeng, Qing & Zhang, Yaojie & Hou, Wenjing, 2018. "Does US Economic Policy Uncertainty matter for European stock markets volatility?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 215-221.
  25. Song, Yi & Huang, Jianbai & Zhang, Yijun & Wang, Zhiping, 2019. "Drivers of metal consumption in China: An input-output structural decomposition analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
  26. Zhao, Yixiu & Upreti, Vineet & Cai, Yuzhi, 2021. "Stock returns, quantile autocorrelation, and volatility forecasting," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  27. Wang, Jiqian & Lu, Xinjie & He, Feng & Ma, Feng, 2020. "Which popular predictor is more useful to forecast international stock markets during the coronavirus pandemic: VIX vs EPU?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  28. Xiao, Jihong & Zhou, Min & Wen, Fengming & Wen, Fenghua, 2018. "Asymmetric impacts of oil price uncertainty on Chinese stock returns under different market conditions: Evidence from oil volatility index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 777-786.
  29. Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Muhammad Shahbaz & Muhammad Ali Nasir & Subhan Ullah, 2022. "Financial modelling, risk management of energy instruments and the role of cryptocurrencies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 47-75, June.
  30. Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Feng Ma, 2021. "Forecasting US stock market volatility: How to use international volatility information," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 733-768, August.
  31. Ozdemir, Ali Can & Buluş, Kurtuluş & Zor, Kasım, 2022. "Medium- to long-term nickel price forecasting using LSTM and GRU networks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  32. Xun Huang & Huiyue Tang, 2022. "Measuring multi‐volatility states of financial markets based on multifractal clustering model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 422-434, April.
  33. Qu, Hui & Zhang, Yi, 2022. "Asymmetric multivariate HAR models for realized covariance matrix: A study based on volatility timing strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
  34. Zhifeng Dai & Tingyu Li & Mi Yang, 2022. "Forecasting stock return volatility: The role of shrinkage approaches in a data‐rich environment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 980-996, August.
  35. Yang, Cai & Gong, Xu & Zhang, Hongwei, 2019. "Volatility forecasting of crude oil futures: The role of investor sentiment and leverage effect," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 548-563.
  36. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Ma, Shu-Jiao, 2019. "How to effectively estimate the time-varying risk spillover between crude oil and stock markets? Evidence from the expectile perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  37. Zhikai Zhang & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Qunwei Wang, 2024. "The predictability of carbon futures volatility: New evidence from the spillovers of fossil energy futures returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(4), pages 557-584, April.
  38. Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Adekoya, Oluwasegun Babatunde & Rashidi, Muhammad Mahdi & Ghasemi Doudkanlou, Mohammad & Dolatabadi, Ali, 2022. "Forecast of Bayesian-based dynamic connectedness between oil market and Islamic stock indices of Islamic oil-exporting countries: Application of the cascade-forward backpropagation network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  39. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Huan & Dong, Xiaodi, 2020. "Forecasting Chinese industry return volatilities with RMB/USD exchange rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
  40. Dai, Xingyu & Wang, Qunwei & Zha, Donglan & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Multi-scale dependence structure and risk contagion between oil, gold, and US exchange rate: A wavelet-based vine-copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  41. Mei, Dexiang & Ma, Feng & Liao, Yin & Wang, Lu, 2020. "Geopolitical risk uncertainty and oil future volatility: Evidence from MIDAS models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  42. Du, Pei & Wang, Jianzhou & Yang, Wendong & Niu, Tong, 2020. "Point and interval forecasting for metal prices based on variational mode decomposition and an optimized outlier-robust extreme learning machine," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  43. Dai, Zhifeng & Kang, Jie, 2021. "Bond yield and crude oil prices predictability," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
  44. Ma, Feng & Wahab, M.I.M. & Zhang, Yaojie, 2019. "Forecasting the U.S. stock volatility: An aligned jump index from G7 stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 132-146.
  45. H. Kent Baker & Satish Kumar & Nitesh Pandey, 2021. "Forty years of the Journal of Futures Markets: A bibliometric overview," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(7), pages 1027-1054, July.
  46. Chen, Yan & Qiao, Gaoxiu & Zhang, Feipeng, 2022. "Oil price volatility forecasting: Threshold effect from stock market volatility," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
  47. Chao Liang & Yaojie Zhang & Xiafei Li & Feng Ma, 2022. "Which predictor is more predictive for Bitcoin volatility? And why?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1947-1961, April.
  48. Xu, Yanyan & Liu, Jing & Ma, Feng & Chu, Jielei, 2024. "Liquidity and realized volatility prediction in Chinese stock market: A time-varying transitional dynamic perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 543-560.
  49. Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Thomas, Alice Carole & Wang, Jianxin, 2023. "The economic impact of daily volatility persistence on energy markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
  50. Gong, Xu & Xu, Jun, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and dynamic connectedness between commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  51. Chao Liang & Yu Wei & Yaojie Zhang, 2020. "Is implied volatility more informative for forecasting realized volatility: An international perspective," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 1253-1276, December.
  52. Chen, Xian & Li, Yang & Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua, 2020. "Oil shocks, competition, and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
  53. Liu, Yuanyuan & Niu, Zibo & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir & Yin, Libo & Zhang, Hongwei, 2022. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures: The role of oil investor attention and its regime switching characteristics under a high-frequency framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
  54. Rubaszek, Michał & Karolak, Zuzanna & Kwas, Marek, 2020. "Mean-reversion, non-linearities and the dynamics of industrial metal prices. A forecasting perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  55. Yoga Sasmita & Heri Kuswanto & Dedy Dwi Prastyo, 2024. "State-Dependent Model Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis Vector for Modeling Structural Breaks: Forecasting Indonesian Export," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, February.
  56. Tangyong Liu & Xu Gong & Boqiang Lin, 2021. "Analyzing the frequency dynamics of volatility spillovers across precious and industrial metal markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1375-1396, September.
  57. Gaoxiu Qiao & Yangli Cao & Feng Ma & Weiping Li, 2023. "Liquidity and realized covariance forecasting: a hybrid method with model uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 437-463, January.
  58. Chao Liang & Yi Zhang & Yaojie Zhang, 2022. "Forecasting the volatility of the German stock market: New evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(9), pages 1055-1070, February.
  59. Klein, Tony & Todorova, Neda, 2019. "Night Trading with Futures in China: The Case of Aluminum and Copper," QBS Working Paper Series 2019/06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
  60. Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "The predictive power of oil price shocks on realized volatility of oil: A note," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  61. Wang, Jiashun & Wang, Jiqian & Ma, Feng, 2024. "International commodity market and stock volatility predictability: Evidence from G7 countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 62-71.
  62. Zhang, Yaojie & Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu, 2019. "Out-of-sample prediction of the oil futures market volatility: A comparison of new and traditional combination approaches," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1109-1120.
  63. Li, Wenlan & Cheng, Yuxiang & Fang, Qiang, 2020. "Forecast on silver futures linked with structural breaks and day-of-the-week effect," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  64. Dimos S. Kambouroudis & David G. McMillan & Katerina Tsakou, 2021. "Forecasting realized volatility: The role of implied volatility, leverage effect, overnight returns, and volatility of realized volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(10), pages 1618-1639, October.
  65. Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2022. "Economic importance of correlations for energy and other commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
  66. Luo, Jiawen & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Forecasting oil and gold volatilities with sentiment indicators under structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  67. Chao Liang & Feng Ma & Lu Wang & Qing Zeng, 2021. "The information content of uncertainty indices for natural gas futures volatility forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1310-1324, November.
  68. Qing Peng & Fenghua Wen & Xu Gong, 2021. "Time‐dependent intrinsic correlation analysis of crude oil and the US dollar based on CEEMDAN," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 834-848, January.
  69. Liang, Chao & Li, Yan & Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu, 2021. "Global equity market volatilities forecasting: A comparison of leverage effects, jumps, and overnight information," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  70. Gong, Xu & Lin, Boqiang, 2019. "Modeling stock market volatility using new HAR-type models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 516(C), pages 194-211.
  71. Wang, Chao & Zhang, Xinyi & Wang, Minggang & Lim, Ming K. & Ghadimi, Pezhman, 2019. "Predictive analytics of the copper spot price by utilizing complex network and artificial neural network techniques," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
  72. Jiqian Wang & Feng Ma & Chao Liang & Zhonglu Chen, 2022. "Volatility forecasting revisited using Markov‐switching with time‐varying probability transition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1387-1400, January.
  73. Hao, Jing & He, Feng, 2018. "Univariate dependence among sectors in Chinese stock market and systemic risk implication," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 355-364.
  74. Guhathakurta, Kousik & Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2020. "Period specific volatility spillover based connectedness between oil and other commodity prices and their portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  75. Chao Liang & Yongan Xu & Zhonglu Chen & Xiafei Li, 2023. "Forecasting China's stock market volatility with shrinkage method: Can Adaptive Lasso select stronger predictors from numerous predictors?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3689-3699, October.
  76. Yaojie Zhang & Mengxi He & Yuqi Zhao & Xianfeng Hao, 2023. "Predicting stock realized variance based on an asymmetric robust regression approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 1022-1047, October.
  77. Yuqing Feng & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang, 2024. "Out‐of‐sample volatility prediction: Rolling window, expanding window, or both?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(3), pages 567-582, April.
  78. Boako, Gideon & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Sjo, Bo & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Commodities price cycles and their interdependence with equity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  79. Díaz, Juan D. & Hansen, Erwin & Cabrera, Gabriel, 2021. "Economic drivers of commodity volatility: The case of copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  80. Zhifang He & Jiaqi Chen & Fangzhao Zhou & Guoqing Zhang & Fenghua Wen, 2022. "Oil price uncertainty and the risk‐return relation in stock markets: Evidence from oil‐importing and oil‐exporting countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1154-1172, January.
  81. Chu, Gang & Zhang, Wei & Sun, Guofeng & Zhang, Xiaotao, 2019. "A new online portfolio selection algorithm based on Kalman Filter and anti-correlation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
  82. Zhu, Xuehong & Liao, Jianhui & Chen, Ying, 2021. "Time-varying effects of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty on the nonferrous metals industry: From the perspective of industrial security," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
  83. Díaz, Juan D. & Hansen, Erwin & Cabrera, Gabriel, 2020. "A random walk through the trees: Forecasting copper prices using decision learning methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  84. Liang, Chao & Luo, Qin & Li, Yan & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan, 2023. "Global financial stress index and long-term volatility forecast for international stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  85. Liu, Renren & Chen, Jianzhong & Wen, Fenghua, 2021. "The nonlinear effect of oil price shocks on financial stress: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
  86. Martin Magris, 2019. "A Vine-copula extension for the HAR model," Papers 1907.08522, arXiv.org.
  87. Zhang, Yaojie & Lei, Likun & Wei, Yu, 2020. "Forecasting the Chinese stock market volatility with international market volatilities: The role of regime switching," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  88. Xie, Nan & Wang, Zongrun & Chen, Sicen & Gong, Xu, 2019. "Forecasting downside risk in China’s stock market based on high-frequency data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 517(C), pages 530-541.
  89. Lu, Botao & Ma, Feng & Wang, Jiqian & Ding, Hui & Wahab, M.I.M., 2021. "Harnessing the decomposed realized measures for volatility forecasting: Evidence from the US stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 672-689.
  90. Wang, Jiqian & Huang, Yisu & Ma, Feng & Chevallier, Julien, 2020. "Does high-frequency crude oil futures data contain useful information for predicting volatility in the US stock market? New evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  91. Zhuo Huang & Chen Tong & Tianyi Wang, 2019. "VIX term structure and VIX futures pricing with realized volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 72-93, January.
  92. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhou, Huiting & Kang, Jie & Wen, Fenghua, 2021. "The skewness of oil price returns and equity premium predictability," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  93. Ma, Feng & Zhang, Yaojie & Huang, Dengshi & Lai, Xiaodong, 2018. "Forecasting oil futures price volatility: New evidence from realized range-based volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 400-409.
  94. Zhou, Mei-Jing & Huang, Jian-Bai & Chen, Jin-Yu, 2022. "Time and frequency spillovers between political risk and the stock returns of China's rare earths," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  95. Zheng, Yan & Zhou, Min & Wen, Fenghua, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of oil shocks on carbon allowance price: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
  96. Chen, Yixiang & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Yaojie, 2019. "Good, bad cojumps and volatility forecasting: New evidence from crude oil and the U.S. stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 52-62.
  97. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhang, Xiaotong & Liang, Chao, 2024. "Efficient predictability of oil price: The role of VIX-based panic index shadow line difference," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  98. Wen, Fenghua & Zhao, Cong & Hu, Chunyan, 2019. "Time-varying effects of international copper price shocks on China's producer price index," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 507-514.
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