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The Returns to Currency Speculation

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Hochradl, Markus & Wagner, Christian, 2010. "Trading the forward bias: Are there limits to speculation?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 423-441, April.
  2. Menzies Gordon Douglas & Zizzo Daniel John, 2009. "Inferential Expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-27, December.
  3. Antonio Diez de los Rios & Enrique Sentana, 2011. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous‐Time Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1215-1251, November.
  4. Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2009. "Liquidity in Asset Markets With Search Frictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 403-426, March.
  5. Copeland, Laurence & Lu, Wenna, 2016. "Dodging the steamroller: Fundamentals versus the carry trade," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 115-131.
  6. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2012. "Currency momentum strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 660-684.
  7. Philip R. Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 518-540, March.
  8. Chu, Shiou-Yen, 2015. "Funding liquidity constraints and the forward premium anomaly in a DSGE model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 76-89.
  9. Martin Evans and Dagfinn Rime, 2010. "Micro Approaches to foreign Exchange Determination," Working Papers gueconwpa~10-10-04, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  10. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2010. "Safe Haven Currencies," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(3), pages 385-407.
  11. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:143:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Craig Burnside & Bing Han & David Hirshleifer & Tracy Yue Wang, 2011. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(2), pages 523-558.
  13. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009. "Predictability in financial markets: What do survey expectations tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 406-426, April.
  14. Choi, Jin Ho & Suh, Sangwon, 2021. "A filtered currency carry trade," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  15. Tarek A. Hassan, 2013. "Country Size, Currency Unions, and International Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(6), pages 2269-2308, December.
  16. Barbara Fritz & Daniela Prates, 2013. "Beyond capital controls: the regulation of foreign currency derivatives markets in South Korea and Brazil after the global financial crisis," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1307, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
  17. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
  18. Sager, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2014. "Generating currency trading rules from the term structure of forward foreign exchange premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 230-250.
  19. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2007. "Random Walk Expectations and the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 346-350, May.
  20. de Vries, Casper & von Hagen, Jurgen & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2010. "The Forward Premium Puzzle and Latent Factors Day by Day," CEPR Discussion Papers 7772, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Richard M. Levich & Frank Packer, 2017. "Development and Functioning of FX Markets in Asia and the Pacific," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 3-58, February.
  22. Jessica James & Kristjan Kasikov & Aysu Secmen, 2009. "[image omitted] Uncovered interest parity and the FX carry trade," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 123-127.
  23. Gueorgui Konstantinov, 2014. "Active currency management of international bond portfolios," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 28(1), pages 63-94, February.
  24. Menzies, Gordon D. & Zizzo, Daniel John, 2012. "Monetary policy and inferential expectations of exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 359-380.
  25. Stocker, Marshall L., 2016. "The price of freedom: Idiosyncratic currency devaluations," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 312-325.
  26. Francisco Peñaranda & Enrique Sentana, 2015. "A Unifying Approach to the Empirical Evaluation of Asset Pricing Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 412-435, May.
  27. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3477-3500, December.
  28. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2014. "Risk Assessment of the Brazilian FX Rate," Working Papers Series 344, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  29. Filippou, Ilias & Taylor, Mark P., 2017. "Common Macro Factors and Currency Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 1731-1763, August.
  30. Tarek Alexander Hassan, 2010. "Country Size, Currency Areas, and International Asset Returns," 2010 Meeting Papers 365, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  31. Craig Burnside, 2009. "Comment on "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 349-359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Orlov, Vitaly & Äijö, Janne, 2015. "Benefits of wavelet-based carry trade diversification," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 17-32.
  33. Choi, Jin Ho & Suh, Sangwon, 2022. "Conditionally-hedged currency carry trades," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  34. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  35. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Risk appetite and exchange Rates," Staff Reports 361, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  36. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
  37. Papahristodoulou, Christos, 2019. "Is there any theory that explains the SEK?," MPRA Paper 95072, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jul 2019.
  38. Wagner, Christian, 2012. "Risk-premia, carry-trade dynamics, and economic value of currency speculation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1195-1219.
  39. Aidan Corcoran, 2009. "The Determinants of Carry Trade Risk Premia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp287, IIIS.
  40. Rosen Valchev, 2015. "Exchange Rates and UIP Violations at Short and Long Horizons," 2015 Meeting Papers 1446, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  41. Benjamin Eden, 2006. "International Seigniorage Payments," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0622, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  42. Tarek A Hassan & Rui C Mano, 2019. "Forward and Spot Exchange Rates in a Multi-Currency World," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 397-450.
  43. Ali Shehadeh & Peter Erdos & Youwei Li & Michael Moore, 2016. "US Dollar Carry Trades in the Era of "Cheap Money"," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(5), pages 374-404, October.
  44. David K. Backus & Federico Gavazzoni & Christopher Telmer & Stanley E. Zin, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Ding, Liang, 2012. "The Thursday effect of the forward premium puzzle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 302-318.
  46. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2010. "Properties of Foreign Exchange Risk Premia," MPRA Paper 21302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  47. Peltomäki, Jarkko, 2008. "Emerging market hedge funds and the yen carry trade," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 220-229, September.
  48. Matti Suominen & Petri Jylhä, 2009. "Arbitrage Capital and Currency Carry Trade Returns," 2009 Meeting Papers 84, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  49. Mei-Li Shen & Cheng-Feng Lee & Hsiou-Hsiang Liu & Po-Yin Chang & Cheng-Hong Yang, 2021. "An Effective Hybrid Approach for Forecasting Currency Exchange Rates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-29, March.
  50. Pojarliev, Momtchil & Levich, Richard M., 2010. "Trades of the living dead: Style differences, style persistence and performance of currency fund managers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1752-1775, December.
  51. Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David & Wang, Tracy Yue, 2005. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle," Working Paper Series 2005-21, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  52. Ueli Mettler & Markus Thöny & Hansjörg Schmidt, 2010. "Carry and trend strategies in FX markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(5), pages 321-331, December.
  53. Bruno Freitas Boynard de Vasconcelos & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2014. "Banking Systemic Risk, Foreign Funding, Exchange Rate Exposure and Carry Trade: is there a relation?," Working Papers Series 365, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  54. Pennings, Steven & Ramayandi, Arief & Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2015. "The impact of monetary policy on financial markets in small open economies: More or less effective during the global financial crisis?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 60-70.
  55. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  56. ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (Mannheim) (ed.), 2007. "Studie im Auftrag der Deutschen Bank AG, Frankfurt am Main zum Thema: "Analyse der Currency Harvest-Strategie". Endbericht," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 110490.
  57. Kohlscheen, Emanuel, 2014. "The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: A high frequency exchange rate puzzle in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 69-96.
  58. Spronk, Richard & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Carry trade and foreign exchange rate puzzles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 17-31.
  59. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:154:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  60. Cook, David, 2009. "The puzzling dual of the uncovered interest parity puzzle evidence from Pacific Rim capital flows," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 449-456, June.
  61. Opie, Wei & Riddiough, Steven J., 2020. "Global currency hedging with common risk factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(3), pages 780-805.
  62. Shehadeh, Ali & Li, Youwei & Moore, Michael, 2016. "The Forward Premium Bias, Carry Trade Return and the Risks of Volatility and Liquidity," MPRA Paper 71709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  63. Kim, Daehwan & Song, Chi-Young, 2015. "Bank default risk and carry trade profit," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 117-119.
  64. Baillie, Richard T. & Chang, Sanders S., 2011. "Carry trades, momentum trading and the forward premium anomaly," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 441-464, August.
  65. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2012. "The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 74-90.
  66. Sam Nasypbek & Scheherazade S Rehman, 2011. "Explaining the returns of active currency managers," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 211-256, Bank for International Settlements.
  67. Dr. Matthias Gubler, 2014. "Carry Trade Activities: A Multivariate Threshold Model Analysis," Working Papers 2014-06, Swiss National Bank.
  68. Kim, Suk-Joong, 2015. "Australian Dollar carry trades: Time varying probabilities and determinants," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 64-75.
  69. Chang, Hao-Wen & Lin, Chinho, 2023. "Currency portfolio behavior in seven major Asian markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 540-559.
  70. Paolo Manasse & Graziano Moramarco & Giulio Trigilia, 2024. "Exchange rates and political uncertainty: the Brexit case," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 621-652, April.
  71. Nucera, Federico & Valente, Giorgio, 2013. "Carry trades and the performance of currency hedge funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 407-425.
  72. Alain P. Chaboud & Joseph E. Gagnon, 2007. "What can the data tell us about carry trades in Japanese yen?," International Finance Discussion Papers 899, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  73. Oscar Jorda, 2010. "Carry Trade," Working Papers 196, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  74. Adrian, Tobias & Etula, Erkko & Groen, Jan J.J., 2011. "Financial amplification of foreign exchange risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 354-370, April.
  75. Suh, Sangwon, 2019. "Unexploited currency carry trade profit opportunity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 236-254.
  76. Richard M Levich & Frank Packer, 2015. "Development and functioning of FX markets in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Cross-border Financial Linkages: Challenges for Monetary Policy and Financial Stability, volume 82, pages 75-132, Bank for International Settlements.
  77. Corinne Winters, 2008. "The Carry Trade, Portfolio Diversification, and the Adjustment of the Japanese Yen," Discussion Papers 08-2, Bank of Canada.
  78. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
  79. Papadopoulos Konstantinos G., 2008. "Purchasing Power Parity with Strategic Markets," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32, June.
  80. Craig Burnside, 2011. "Carry Trades and Risk," NBER Working Papers 17278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  81. Entrop, Oliver & Fuchs, Fabian U., 2020. "Implicit currency carry trades of companies," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Betriebswirtschaftliche Reihe B-41-20, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
  82. Cho, Dooyeon & Doblas-Madrid, Antonio, 2014. "Trade intensity and purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 194-209.
  83. Jylhä, Petri & Suominen, Matti, 2011. "Speculative capital and currency carry trades," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 60-75, January.
  84. Stylianos Asimakopoulos & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2023. "A Bayesian DSGE Approach to Modelling Cryptocurrency," Working Papers No 09/2023, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  85. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2009. "Carry Trades and Global FX Volatility," MPRA Paper 14728, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  86. Mo, Wan-Shin & Yang, J. Jimmy & Chen, Yu-Lun, 2023. "Exchange rate spillover, carry trades, and the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  87. Christian Wagner, 2008. "Risk-Premia, Carry-Trade Dynamics, and Speculative Efficiency of Currency Markets," Working Papers 143, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  88. Cepni, Oguzhan & Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan & Guney, Ibrahim Ethem & Yilmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2023. "Do the carry trades respond to geopolitical risks? Evidence from BRICS countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
  89. Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Marins, Jaqueline Terra Moura, 2017. "Evaluation of exchange rate point and density forecasts: An application to Brazil," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 707-728.
  90. Momtchil Pojarliev & Richard M. Levich, 2007. "Do Professional Currency Managers Beat the Benchmark?," NBER Working Papers 13714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  91. Cappiello, Lorenzo & De Santis, Roberto A., 2007. "The uncovered return parity condition," Working Paper Series 812, European Central Bank.
  92. Clarida, Richard & Davis, Josh & Pedersen, Niels, 2009. "Currency carry trade regimes: Beyond the Fama regression," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1375-1389, December.
  93. Fong, Wai Mun, 2010. "A stochastic dominance analysis of yen carry trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1237-1246, June.
  94. Alessio Anzuini & Francesca Brusa, 2016. "Carry trades and exchange rate volatility: a TVAR approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1046, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  95. Kornél Kisgergely, 2012. "Is there a carry trade channel of monetary policy in emerging countries?," MNB Working Papers 2012/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  96. Jose Olmo & Keith Pilbeam, 2009. "The profitability of carry trades," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 231-241, March.
  97. Jessica Leutert, 2018. "The Swiss franc safety premium," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-21, December.
  98. Jon Danielsson & Hyun Song Shin & Jean-Pierre Zigrand, 2012. "Endogenous Extreme Events and the Dual Role of Prices," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 111-129, July.
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