IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/zewdip/1608.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are Credit Ratings Valuable Information?

Author

Listed:
  • Kraft, Kornelius
  • Czarnitzki, Dirk

Abstract

Credit ratings are commonly used by lenders to assess the default risk, because every credit is connected with a possible loss. If the probability of a default is above a certain threshold, a credit will not be provided. The purpose of this paper is to test whether credit ratings contribute valuable information on the creditworthiness of firms. Employing a large sample of Western German manufacturing firms, we investigate loan defaults. First, we estimate Probit models with publicly available information. Subsequently, we additionally use a credit rating and show that it contributes significantly to the regression fit. However, the publicly available information has an independent effect aside of the ratings. Simple calculations demonstrate that the interest rate has to increase significantly to compensate for a possible loss in case of default, if a firm has a weak rating.

Suggested Citation

  • Kraft, Kornelius & Czarnitzki, Dirk, 2004. "Are Credit Ratings Valuable Information?," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-07, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:1608
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/24007/1/dp0407.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
    2. William B. English & William R. Nelson, 1998. "Bank risk rating of business loans," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-51, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Ewert, Ralf & Szczesny, Andrea, 2001. "Countdown for the New Basle Capital Accord: Are German banks ready for the internal ratings-based approach?," CFS Working Paper Series 2001/05, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    5. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    6. Zmijewski, Me, 1984. "Methodological Issues Related To The Estimation Of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22, pages 59-82.
    7. Kaiser, Ulrich, 2001. "Moving in and out of financial distress: evidence for newly founded service sector firms," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-09, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    8. Veall, Michael R & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 1996. "Pseudo-R-[superscript 2] Measures for Some Common Limited Dependent Variable Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 241-259, September.
    9. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
    10. John Ammer & Frank Packer, 2000. "How consistent are credit ratings? a geographic and sectoral analysis of default risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 668, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:3:p:1131-1147 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Rajshree Agarwal & David B. Audretsch, 2001. "Does Entry Size Matter? The Impact of the Life Cycle and Technology on Firm Survival," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 21-43, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hussinger, Katrin & Dick, Johannes M.H. & Czarnitzki, Dirk, 2018. "Ownership concentration and innovativeness of corporate ventures," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 527-541.
    2. repec:rim:rimwps:30-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Katrin Hussinger, 2008. "R&D and subsidies at the firm level: an application of parametric and semiparametric two-step selection models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 729-747.
    4. Greta Falavigna & Roberto Ippoliti, 2021. "Financial Constraints and the Sustainability of Dividend Payout Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-15, June.
    5. Löschel, Andreas & Lutz, Benjamin Johannes & Massier, Philipp, 2017. "Credit constraints, energy management practices, and investments in energy saving technologies: German manufacturing in close-up," CAWM Discussion Papers 98, University of Münster, Münster Center for Economic Policy (MEP).
    6. Greta Falavigna & Roberto Ippoliti, 2022. "Financial constraints, investments, and environmental strategies: An empirical analysis of judicial barriers," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 2002-2018, July.
    7. Thomas Lagner & Dodozu Knyphausen‐Aufseß, 2012. "Rating Agencies as Gatekeepers to the Capital Market: Practical Implications of 40 Years of Research," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(3), pages 157-202, August.
    8. Dirk Czarnitzki & Julie Delanote, 2013. "Young Innovative Companies: the new high-growth firms?," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 22(5), pages 1315-1340, October.
    9. Fantazzini, Dean & DeGiuli, Maria Elena & Figini, Silvia & Giudici, Paolo, 2009. "Enhanced credit default models for heterogeneous SME segments," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 25, pages 31-39.
    10. Yujing Gong & Kung-Cheng Ho, 2018. "Does corporate social responsibility matter for corporate stability? Evidence from China," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(5), pages 2291-2319, September.
    11. H. Semih Yildirim & Prem Mathew & Priscilla Neeliah-Chinniah, 2008. "The value of stability ratings to the Canadian income trust market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(18), pages 1465-1474.
    12. Sarah Kösters & Martin Obschonka, 2011. "Public Business Advice in the Founding Process: An Empirical Evaluation of Subjective and Economic Effects," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 29(4), pages 577-604, August.
    13. Jens Horbach & Christian Rammer, 2020. "Circular economy innovations, growth and employment at the firm level: Empirical evidence from Germany," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(3), pages 615-625, June.
    14. Blumenstock, Hendrik & von Grone, Udo & Mehlhorn, Marc & Merkl, Johannes & Pietz, Marcus, 2012. "Einflussfaktoren von CDS-Spreads als Maß für das aktuelle Bonitätsrisiko: Liefert das Rating eine Erklärung?," Bayreuth Working Papers on Finance, Accounting and Taxation (FAcT-Papers) 2012-03, University of Bayreuth, Chair of Finance and Banking.
    15. Dirk Czarnitzki & Hanna Hottenrott, 2011. "R&D investment and financing constraints of small and medium-sized firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 65-83, January.
    16. Barbara Luppi & Massimiliano Marzo & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2007. "Credit risk and Basel II: Are non-profit firms financially different?," Working Paper series 30_07, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    17. Ngare, Philip, 2019. "Analysis of the coexistence of conventional and unconventional credit markets in the agribusiness sector in Kenya," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 37, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    18. Patrick Bielstein & Mario Fischer & Christoph Kaserer, 2018. "The cost of capital effect of M&A transactions: Disentangling coinsurance from the diversification discount," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(4), pages 650-679, September.
    19. Yannick Bammens & Paul Hünermund & Petra Andries, 2022. "Pursuing Gains or Avoiding Losses: The Contingent Effect of Transgenerational Intentions on Innovation Investments," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(6), pages 1493-1530, September.
    20. Dirk Czarnitzki & Hanna Hottenrott, 2011. "Financial Constraints: Routine Versus Cutting Edge R&D Investment," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 121-157, March.
    21. Horbach, Jens & Rammer, Christian, 2019. "Employment and performance effects of circular economy innovations," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-016, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    22. Giebel, Marek & Kraft, Kornelius, 2020. "R&D investment under financing constraints," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-018, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    23. Hussinger, Katrin, 2005. "Did Concentration on Core Competencies Drive Merger and Acquisition Activities in the 1990s? Empirical Evidence for Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 05-41, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    24. Ruqia Shaikh & Zhiqiang Li & Xiaoli Wang & Muhammad Rizwan Nazir, 2022. "Firm innovation and ultimate control mechanism: Case of emerging market," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 440-456, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grunert, Jens & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2005. "The role of non-financial factors in internal credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 509-531, February.
    2. Trueck, Stefan & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2008. "Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123736833.
    3. Lando, David & Nielsen, Mads Stenbo, 2010. "Correlation in corporate defaults: Contagion or conditional independence?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 355-372, July.
    4. Manzoni, Katiuscia, 2004. "Modeling Eurobond credit ratings and forecasting downgrade probability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 277-300.
    5. Ioannis Tsolas, 2015. "Firm credit risk evaluation: a series two-stage DEA modeling framework," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 233(1), pages 483-500, October.
    6. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Han, Jie, 2014. "Financial distress of Chinese firms: Microeconomic, macroeconomic and institutional influences," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 244-262.
    7. Cathcart, Lara & Dufour, Alfonso & Rossi, Ludovico & Varotto, Simone, 2020. "The differential impact of leverage on the default risk of small and large firms," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Tanthanongsakkun Suparatana & Pitt David & Treepongkaruna Sirimon, 2009. "A Comparison of Corporate Bankruptcy Models in Australia: The Merton vs. Accounting-based Models," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-21, April.
    9. Li, Chunyu & Lou, Chenxin & Luo, Dan & Xing, Kai, 2021. "Chinese corporate distress prediction using LASSO: The role of earnings management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    10. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    11. Meles, Antonio & Salerno, Dario & Sampagnaro, Gabriele & Verdoliva, Vincenzo & Zhang, Jianing, 2023. "The influence of green innovation on default risk: Evidence from Europe," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 692-710.
    12. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    13. Minhas Akbar & Ahsan Akbar & Petra Maresova & Minghui Yang & Hafiz Muhammad Arshad, 2020. "Unraveling the Bankruptcy Risk‒Return Paradox across the Corporate Life Cycle," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, April.
    14. Elizabeth Demers & Philip Joos, 2007. "IPO Failure Risk," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 333-371, May.
    15. Ali Uyar & Simone Pizzi & Fabio Caputo & Cemil Kuzey & Abdullah S. Karaman, 2022. "Do shareholders reward or punish risky firms due to CSR reporting and assurance?," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 1596-1620, July.
    16. Campa, Domenico & Camacho-Miñano, María-del-Mar, 2015. "The impact of SME’s pre-bankruptcy financial distress on earnings management tools," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 222-234.
    17. Zeineb Affes & Rania Hentati-Kaffel, 2016. "Forecast bankruptcy using a blend of clustering and MARS model - Case of US banks," Post-Print halshs-01314553, HAL.
    18. Ahsan Habib & Mabel D' Costa & Hedy Jiaying Huang & Md. Borhan Uddin Bhuiyan & Li Sun, 2020. "Determinants and consequences of financial distress: review of the empirical literature," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(S1), pages 1023-1075, April.
    19. Serrano-Cinca, Carlos & Gutiérrez-Nieto, Begoña & Bernate-Valbuena, Martha, 2019. "The use of accounting anomalies indicators to predict business failure," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 353-375.
    20. Huang, Hsing-Hua & Lee, Han-Hsing, 2013. "Product market competition and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 324-340.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit Rating; Insolvency; Loan Default; Discrete Regression Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:1608. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zemande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.