IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/zeiwps/b272003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The performance of the Euribor futures market: Effficiency and the impact of ECB policy announcements

Author

Listed:
  • Bernoth, Kerstin
  • von Hagen, Jürgen

Abstract

For an effective and smooth monetary policy, it is important that interest rate expectations are in line with central bank policy intentions. The predictability of money market interest rates is, therefore, an indicator of transparency and clarity in the communication of monetary policy and of the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation. In this paper, we analyse three aspects of the predictability of money market rates in the European Monetary Union (EMU). The first is the efficiency of the three-month Euribor interest rate futures markets. The second aspect is the effect of ECB policy announcements on the volatility of Euribor futures rates, and the third aspect is the effect of ECB policy announcements on the prediction error contained in Euribor futures rates. We find that the new Euro money markets were able to predict short-term rates well. Our results suggest that the ECB communication of monetary policy has worked well during the first years of EMU and that the predictability of ECB policy decisions seems to have improved over time. ECB Council decisions still cause some surprises, but their effect on volatility is small.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2003. "The performance of the Euribor futures market: Effficiency and the impact of ECB policy announcements," ZEI Working Papers B 27-2003, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b272003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/39612/1/382993373.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. C. Steven Cole & Michael Impson & William Reichenstein, 1991. "Do treasury bill futures rates satisfy rational expectation properties?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 591-601, October.
    2. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    3. Favero, Carlo A. & Mosca, Federico, 2001. "Uncertainty on monetary policy and the expectations model of the term structure of interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 369-375, June.
    4. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
    6. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December.
    7. William Poole & Robert Rasche, 2000. "Perfecting the Market's Knowledge of Monetary Policy," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 255-298, December.
    8. Vítor Gaspar & Gabriel Perez-Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "The monetary policy decisions of the ECB and the money market," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 402-411, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Mr. Kevin Ross, 2002. "Market Predictability of ECB Policy Decisions: A Comparative Examination," IMF Working Papers 2002/233, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    11. Hartmann, Philipp & Manna, Michele & Manzanares, Andres, 2001. "The microstructure of the euro money market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 895-948, November.
    12. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
    13. C. Steven Cole & William Reichenstein, 1994. "Forecasting interest rates with eurodollar futures rates," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 37-50, February.
    14. V. Vance Roley & Gordon H. Sellon, 1998. "Market reaction to monetary policy nonannouncements," Research Working Paper 98-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    15. Antulio N. Bomfim & Vincent Reinhart, 2000. "Making news: financial market effects of Federal Reserve disclosure practices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Christian Dunis & Andre Keller, 1995. "Efficiency tests with overlapping data: an application to the currency options market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 345-366.
    17. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Bertola, Giuseppe & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "A model of target changes and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 223-249, July.
    18. Bomfim, Antulio N., 2003. "Pre-announcement effects, news effects, and volatility: Monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 133-151, January.
    19. Tim Krehbiel & Lee C. Adkins, 1994. "Interest rate futures: Evidence on forecast power, expected premiums, and the unbiased expectations hypothesis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 531-543, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Owain ap Gwilym & Samir Aguenaou & Mark Rhodes, 2009. "The determinants of trading volume for cross-listed Euribor futures contracts," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 89-102.
    2. Sander, H. & Kleimeier, S., 2004. "Expected versus unexpected monetary policy impulses and interest rate pass-through in eurozone retail banking," Research Memorandum 001, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    3. Andersson, Magnus & Hansen, Lars Jul & Sebestyén, Szabolcs, 2006. "Which news moves the euro area bond market?," Working Paper Series 631, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pérez Quirós, Gabriel & Sicilia, Jorge, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 192, European Central Bank.
    2. Thornton, Daniel L., 2005. "Tests of the expectations hypothesis: Resolving the anomalies when the short-term rate is the federal funds rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2541-2556, October.
    3. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "The Euribor Futures Market: Efficiency and the Impact of ECB Policy Announcements," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, March.
    4. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    5. Shu Wu, 2008. "Monetary Policy And Long‐Term Interest Rates," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(3), pages 398-408, July.
    6. Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen & Andrea Zaghini, 2011. "Monetary policy predictability in the euro area: an international comparison," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(20), pages 2533-2544.
    7. Joe Lange & Brian P. Sack & William C. Whitesell, 2001. "Anticipations of monetary policy in financial markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Levon Goukasian & Mehdi Majbouri, 2010. "The Reaction of Real Estate–Related Industries to the Monetary Policy Actions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 355-398, June.
    9. Andrea Monticini & Giacomo Vaciago, 2007. "Are Euro Interest Rates led by FED Announcements?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 16, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    10. Stylianos X. Koufadakis, 2015. "Asymmetries on Closed End Country Funds Premium and Monetary Policy Announcements: An Approach Trough the Perspective of Foreign Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 29-65, july-Dece.
    11. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-152, Summer.
    12. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2003. "The dynamic relationship between the federal funds rate and the Treasury bill rate: An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1079-1110, June.
    13. Amir Kia & Hilde Patron, 2004. "Market-Based Monetary Policy Transparency Index, Risk and Volatility - The Case of the United States," Carleton Economic Papers 04-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    14. Byeongseon Seo, 2000. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 121, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
    16. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    17. Benito, Francis & Leon, Angel & Nave, Juan, 2007. "Modeling the Euro overnight rate," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 756-782, December.
    18. Seo, Byeongseon, 2003. "Nonlinear mean reversion in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2243-2265.
    19. Kwamie Dunbar, 2008. "The Impact of the FOMC's Monetary Policy Actions on the growth of Credit Risk: the Monetary Policy - Liquidity Paradox," Working papers 2008-05, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    20. Favero, Carlo A., 2001. "Does Macroeconomics Help Us To Understand the Term Structure of Interest Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2849, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b272003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zeibnde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.