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Refugees’ Self-selection into Europe: Who Migrates Where?

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  • Aksoy, Cevat
  • Poutvaara, Panu

Abstract

About 1.4 million refugees and irregular migrants arrived in Europe in 2015 and 2016. We model how refugees and irregular migrants are self-selected. Using unique datasets from the International Organization for Migration and Gallup World Polls, we provide the first large-scale evidence on reasons to emigrate, and the self-selection and sorting of refugees and irregular migrants for multiple origin and destination countries. Refugees and female irregular migrants are positively self-selected with respect to education, while male irregular migrants are not. We also find that both male and female migrants from major conflict countries are positively self-selected in terms of their predicted income. For countries with minor or no conflict, migrant and non-migrant men do not differ in terms of their income distribution. We also analyze how border controls affect destination country choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Aksoy, Cevat & Poutvaara, Panu, 2019. "Refugees’ Self-selection into Europe: Who Migrates Where?," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203665, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc19:203665
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    Cited by:

    1. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Poutvaara, Panu & Schikora, Felicitas, 2023. "First time around: Local conditions and multi-dimensional integration of refugees," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Freitas-Monteiro, Teresa & Ludolph, Lars, 2021. "Barriers to humanitarian migration, victimisation and integration outcomes: evidence from Germany," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110500, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Jordi Paniagua & Jesús Peiró-Palomino & Andrés J. Picazo-Tadeo, 2021. "Asylum Migration in OECD Countries: In Search of Lost Well-Being," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 1109-1137, February.
    4. Ajzenman, Nicolás & Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Guriev, Sergei, 2022. "Exposure to transit migration: Public attitudes and entrepreneurship," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    5. Timothy J. Hatton, 2020. "Asylum Migration to the Developed World: Persecution, Incentives, and Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 75-93, Winter.
    6. Platt, Lucinda & Polavieja, Javier & Radl, Jonas, 2022. "Which integration policies work? The heterogeneous impact of national institutions on immigrants’ labor market attainment in Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110955, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Claudio Deiana & Vikram Maheshri & Giovanni Mastrobuoni, 2024. "Migrants at Sea: Unintended Consequences of Search and Rescue Operations," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 335-365, May.
    8. Brücker, Herbert & Fendel, Tanja & Guichard, Lucas & Gundacker, Lidwina & Jaschke, Philipp & Keita, Sekou & Kosyakova, Yuliya & Vallizadeh, Ehsan, 2020. "Fünf Jahre "Wir schaffen das" - Eine Bilanz aus der Perspektive des Arbeitsmarktes," IAB-Forschungsbericht 202011, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Abramitzky, Ran & Boustan, Leah & Catron, Peter & Connor, Dylan & Voigt, Rob, 2021. "Refugees without Assistance: English-Language Attainment and Economic Outcomes in the Early Twentieth Century," SocArXiv 429jp, Center for Open Science.
    10. Giacomo Battiston, 2022. "Rescue on Stage: Border Enforcement and Public Attention in the Mediterranean Sea," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0292, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    11. Lea-Maria Löbel & Hannes Kröger & Ana Nanette Tibubos, 2021. "Social Isolation and Loneliness in the Context of Migration: A Cross-Sectional Study of Refugees, Migrants, and the Native Population in Germany," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1124, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    12. Courtney Brell & Christian Dustmann & Ian Preston, 2020. "The Labor Market Integration of Refugee Migrants in High-Income Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 94-121, Winter.
    13. Karaarslan, Can, 2020. "Growth, Wages and Unemployment - The Economic Impact of Refugee Migration on Europe: A Synthetic Control Analysis," Working Papers for Marketing & Management 51, Offenburg University, Department of Media and Information.
    14. Jordi Ripollés & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2021. "African Asylum Seekers in Europe: The Interplay between Foreign Aid and Governance in Origin Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 829-865, November.
    15. Nicolás Ajzenman & Cevat Giray Aksoy & Sergei Guriev, 2020. "Exposure to Transit Migration, Public Attitudes and Entrepreneurship," Department of Economics Working Papers wp_gob_2020_02, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    16. Micevska, Maja, 2021. "Revisiting forced migration: A machine learning perspective," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    17. Clemens, Michael A. & Mendola, Mariapia, 2020. "Migration from Developing Countries: Selection, Income Elasticity, and Simpson's Paradox," IZA Discussion Papers 13612, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Tumen, Semih, 2021. "Local Governance Quality and the Environmental Cost of Forced Migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    19. Lucas Guichard, 2020. "Self-selection of Asylum Seekers: Evidence From Germany," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(3), pages 1089-1116, June.
    20. Platt, Lucinda & Polavieja, Javier & Radl, Jonas, 2022. "Which Integration Policies Work? The Heterogeneous Impact of National Institutions on Immigrants’ Labor Market Attainment in Europe," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 56(2), pages 344-375.
    21. Tim Hatton, 2020. "European asylum policy before and after the migration crisis," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 480-480, September.
    22. Amenta, Carlo & Di Betta, Paolo & Ferrara, Calogero, 2021. "The migrant crisis in the Mediterranean Sea: Empirical evidence on policy interventions," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International migration; refugees; self-selection; human capital; predicted income;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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