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On the macroeconomic effects of immigration: A VAR analysis for the US

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  • Weiske, Sebastian

Abstract

This paper estimates the quarterly flow of migrants to the US working age population using data based on the Current Population Survey (CPS). The dynamic responses to immigration shocks are estimated in a vector autoregression. Immigration shocks, as well as technology shocks are identified through long-run restrictions. The responses to immigration shocks are consistent with standard growth theory. Investment increases, while real wages fall in the short run. Overall, immigration has been of little importance for US business cycles, while investment-specific technology shocks have been a major driver of immigration during the 1990s and 2000s.

Suggested Citation

  • Weiske, Sebastian, 2019. "On the macroeconomic effects of immigration: A VAR analysis for the US," Working Papers 02/2019, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:022019
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/193676/1/1067606742.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    immigration; business cycles; vector autoregressions; long-run restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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