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Revisionen der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen: Revisionspraxis des Statistischen Bundesamtes und ihre Auswirkungen auf Prognosen

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  • Döhrn, Roland

Abstract

Eine wesentliche Grundlage für makroökonomische Analysen sind die Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen (VGR). Für Deutschland werden diese vom Statistischen Bundesamt vierteljährlich veröffentlicht. Die erste Veröffentlichung basiert noch auf unvollständigen Daten, so dass die Angaben noch mehrfach revidiert werden, bis etwa dreieinhalb Jahre nach Ende eines Jahres der endgültige Wert vorliegt. Überlagert werden diese laufenden Revisionen von sogenannten Generalrevisionen, mit denen systematische Änderungen in den VGR umgesetzt werden. Beobachten lassen sich nur die Revisionen insgesamt, während mit Blick auf die Arbeit der statistischen Ämter und den Gesetzgeber eher das Ausmaß der laufenden Revisionen von Interesse ist. Der vorliegende Beitrag isoliert mit Hilfe eines einfachen Ansatzes die laufenden Revisionen und untersucht deren Ausmaß sowie, ob sie Systematiken folgen. Dabei lassen sich für eine Reihe preisbereinigter Verwendungsaggregate der VGR wie auch für die Erwerbstätigkeit Systematiken wie Verzerrung, Autokorrelation der Revisionen und Korrelation von Ausmaß der der Revision mit der Zuwachsrate der betreffenden Größe finden. Dies weist auf Möglichkeiten hin, durch bessere Datennutzung die Revisionsanfälligkeit der VGR zu verringern. Dies ist auch mit Blick auf die Genauigkeit von Prognosen wünschenswert, denn die Arbeit zeigt am Beispiel der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, dass die Fehler der im Herbst veröffentlichten Prognosen eng mit den Revisionen der Daten für das erste Halbjahr des betreffenden Jahres korrelieren.

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  • Döhrn, Roland, 2018. "Revisionen der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen: Revisionspraxis des Statistischen Bundesamtes und ihre Auswirkungen auf Prognosen," RWI Materialien 127, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwimat:127
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Döhrn, Roland & Barabas, György & Blagov, Boris & Fuest, Angela & Jäger, Philipp & Jessen, Robin & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana, 2018. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Inland: Aufschwung setzt sich fort, Gefährdungen nehmen zu," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 69(3), pages 21-56.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnungen; Datenrevisionen; Prognosegenauigkeit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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