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Deutschland: Konjunkturelle Erholung setzt sich in verlangsamtem Tempo fort - Gefahr eines Rückschlags durch die Schuldenkrise

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  • Boss, Alfred
  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick
  • van Roye, Björn
  • Scheide, Joachim

Abstract

In den vergangenen Monaten haben sich die Frühindikatoren deutlich verbessert. Die konjunkturelle Dynamik dürfte in der ersten Jahreshälfte deutlich höher gewesen sein, als von uns im vergangenen März geschätzt wurde. Für das Jahr 2010 insgesamt prognostizieren wir einen Anstieg des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 2,1 Prozent (Prognose im März: 1,2 Prozent). Die Zunahme im Jahr 2011 setzen wir mit 1,2 Prozent deutlich niedriger an als in unserer Prognose vom März (1,8 Prozent), vor allem weil die Finanzpolitik im kommenden Jahr dämpfend wirkt und sich die Weltkonjunktur stärker abschwächt als bisher erwartet. Die Zahl der Arbeitslosen wird weiter spürbar sinken.

Suggested Citation

  • Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Deutschland: Konjunkturelle Erholung setzt sich in verlangsamtem Tempo fort - Gefahr eines Rückschlags durch die Schuldenkrise," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45571, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:45571
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    2. Boss, Alfred & Rosenschon, Astrid, 2010. "Subventionen in Deutschland: Der Kieler Subventionsbericht," Kiel Discussion Papers 479/480, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2010. "The future of public debt: prospects and implications," BIS Working Papers 300, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Boss, Alfred & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & van Roye, Björn & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Moderate Erholung in Deutschland - Arbeitsmarkt in erstaunlich guter Verfassung," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45584, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2010. "The ugly and the bad: banking and housing crises strangle output permanently, ordinary recessions do not," Kiel Working Papers 1586, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    Cited by:

    1. Boss, Alfred & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Deutschland: Nach dem Zwischenspurt langsamere Gangart der Konjunktur," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45580, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Boss, Alfred & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan, 2010. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2010," Kiel Discussion Papers 483/484, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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