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Das europäische Verfahren zur Vermeidung und Korrektur makroökonomischer Ungleichgewichte: Auswertung der bisherigen Erfahrung und mögliche Reformansätze

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Plödt, Martin
  • van Roye, Björn
  • Scheide, Joachim
  • Schwarzmüller, Tim

Abstract

Das europäische Verfahren zur Vermeidung und Korrektur makroökonomischer Ungleichgewichte (kurz: Ungleichgewichteverfahren) zielt darauf ab, makroökonomische Risiken frühzeitig zu erkennen und den Aufbau von gefährlichen makroökonomischen Ungleichgewichten zu verhindern bzw. bestehende Ungleichgewichte zu verringern, um krisenhaften Entwicklungen im europäischen Binnenmarkt und speziell in der Währungsunion vorzubeugen. Die Basis hierfür bildet das aus 11 Haupt- und 28 Hilfsindikatoren bestehende Scoreboard, mit dem ein für alle EU-Länder einheitliches makroökonomisches Monitoringsystem geschaffen wurde. In jährlichen Frühwarnberichten (Alert Mechanism Reports) werden die Ergebnisse des Scoreboards ausgewertet. Sofern Entwicklungen von bestimmten Indikatoren anhand von Schwellenwerten als problematisch erkannt werden, kann dies zu vertiefenden Länderanalysen (In-Depth Reports) führen, in denen der ökonomische Gehalt der Indikatorsignale interpretiert und gegebenenfalls wirtschaftspolitische Schlussfolgerungen gezogen werden. Die wirtschaftspolitischen Empfehlungen sind Teil des präventiven Arms, der zur eigentlichen Krisenabwehr dienen soll. Darüber hinaus existiert ein korrektiver Arm, der im Fall von exzessiven Ungleichgewichten die Vorlage von sanktionsbewährten Anpassungsprogrammen Umsetzung verlangt. Das vorliegende Gutachten bewertet das Ungleichgewichteverfahren hinsichtlich des Verfahrensablaufs (Kapitel 2) sowie der theoretischen Fundierung (Kapitel 3) und der empirischen Bewährung (Kapitel 4) des Scoreboards. Ferner werden die bislang vorliegenden Anwendungserfahrungen (Berichtswesen und wirtschaftspolitische Empfehlungen) mit dem präventiven Arm geprüft (Kapitel 5) sowie die potenzielle Eignung des korrektiven Arms (Kapitel 6) untersucht. Sämtliche Teilergebnisse fließen in eine abschließende Gesamtempfehlung ein, die neben grundlegenden Überlegungen konkrete Verbesserungsvorschläge zusammenfassend aufzeigt (Kapitel 7).

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Das europäische Verfahren zur Vermeidung und Korrektur makroökonomischer Ungleichgewichte: Auswertung der bisherigen Erfahrung und mögliche Reformansätze," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkbw:7
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    1. Jannsen, Nils & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2017. "Zur Entwicklung der deutschen Weltmarktanteile," Kiel Insight 2017.21, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2015. "Zu den Folgen der politischen Instabilität für die griechische Wirtschaft und den griechischen Staat," Kiel Insight 2015.3, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina, 2015. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2015 - Aufschwung gewinnt wieder an Fahrt [German Economy Winter 2015 - The German economy is regaining momentum]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Pirschel, Inske & Plödt, Martin & Wolters, Maik H., 2015. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2015 - Deutschland auf dem Weg in die Hochkonjunktur [German Economy Spring 2015 - German economy on the road to overheating]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Konjunktur im Euroraum im Frühjahr 2015 - Moderate Erholung im Euroraum," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 4, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2017. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2017 - Deutsche Wirtschaft in voller Fahrt [German Economy Winter 2017 - German economy at full steam]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 38, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Kooths, Stefan & Felbermayr, Gabriel, 2020. "Stabilitätspolitik in der Corona-Krise," Kiel Policy Brief 138, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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