IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/dzimps/277911.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Implikationen langfristiger Energiekostenunterschiede für energieintensive Industrien und den Wirtschaftsstandort Deutschland

Author

Listed:
  • Steitz, Janek
  • Kölschbach Ortego, Axel

Abstract

Im Auftrag des Dezernat Zukunft haben die IW Consult und Frontier Economics in einer neuen Studie (Bähr et al. 2023) untersucht, wie sich Energiekosten im In- und Ausland langfristig entwickeln werden und welche wirtschaftlichen Implikationen dies für die inländischen energieintensiven Industrien und den Wirtschaftsstandort Deutschland grundsätzlich haben wird. Dieser Policy Brief fasst die wesentlichen Ergebnisse der Studie zusammen, ergänzt um politische Handlungsempfehlungen des Dezernat Zukunft (S. 18 ff.). Die Kernergebnisse der Studie sind: Erstens: Deutschland wird - anders als derzeit oft behauptet - auch nach 2030 substanzielle Energiekostennachteile gegenüber anderen Industriestandorten haben. Diese Kostennachteile haben zufolge, dass die energieintensive Grundstofferzeugung in Deutschland nur zu Mehrkosten möglich sein wird. Zweitens: Nachgelagerte Wirtschaftszweige werden empfindlich auf die Kostenaufschläge mit Erhöhung von Vorleistungsimporten und Auslandsverlagerung reagieren. Drittens: Ohne Gegenmaßnahmen und isoliert betrachtet droht der deutschen Wirtschaft so ein Wohlfahrtsverlust von 1,7 bis 4,5 Prozent über zehn bis 15 Jahre. 1,7 Millionen Arbeitsplätze sind bedroht - vor allem in weiterverarbeitenden Branchen. Ein Maßnahmenbündel kann den Effekt abfedern. Das Bündel sollte horizontale, produktivitätssteigernde Standortpolitik mit gezielten vertikalen Eingriffen verbinden, ohne dabei bestehende Industriestrukturen zu konservieren. Die Reduktion der Energiesystemkosten sollte oberste Priorität haben. Dabei spielt auch die Erhöhung energieintensiver Vorleistungsimporte eine zentrale Rolle spielen. Gleichzeitig muss eine "Sockelkapazität" an Grundstofferzeugung in Deutschland gesichert werden - dies erfordert gezielte staatliche Hilfen.

Suggested Citation

  • Steitz, Janek & Kölschbach Ortego, Axel, 2023. "Implikationen langfristiger Energiekostenunterschiede für energieintensive Industrien und den Wirtschaftsstandort Deutschland," Papers 277911, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dzimps:277911
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/277911/1/1860209122.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Felix T. S. Chan & Kai Ding, 2023. "Industrial intelligence-driven production and operations management," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(13), pages 4215-4219, July.
    2. David F. J. Campbell & Elias G. Carayannis, 2023. "From Industry 4.0 to Democracy 5.0," Chapters, in: Elias G Carayannis & Evangelos Grigoroudis (ed.), Handbook of Research on Artificial Intelligence, Innovation and Entrepreneurship, chapter 24, pages 383-401, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Yasunobu Wakashiro, 2019. "Estimating price elasticity of demand for electricity: the case of Japanese manufacturing industry," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 173-191, January.
    4. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna, 2020. "Price and income elasticities of residential and industrial electricity demand in the European Union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    5. Milene Tessarin & Deyu Li & Sergio Petralia & Ron Boschma, 2023. "The future geography of industries and occupations," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2302, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jan 2023.
    6. repec:ags:aaea22:335879 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Lin, Justin Yifu & Liu, Zhengwen & Zhang, Bo, 2023. "Endowment, technology choice, and industrial upgrading," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 364-381.
    8. Lee Branstetter & Guangwei Li, 2024. "The Challenges of Chinese Industrial Policy," Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 77-113.
    9. Leonard F. S. Wang & Domenico Buccella, 2023. "The Timing of Technology Adoption in Network Industries," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 62(4), pages 367-392, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gegner, Martin, 2023. "Die Akzeptanz gesetzlicher Initiativen zur Energiewende: Das Beispiel "Gesetz zum Neustart der Digitalisierung der Energiewende"," Discussion Papers, Research Group Digital Mobility and Social Differentiation SP III 2023-603, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    2. Nor Salwati Othman & Nurul Hezlin Mohamed Hariri, 2021. "Estimating the Causality and Elasticities of Residential Electricity Consumption for Malaysia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(6), pages 335-346.
    3. Thanh-Long Giang & Dinh-Tri Vo & Quan-Hoang Vuong, 2020. "COVID-19: A Relook at Healthcare Systems and Aged Populations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-10, May.
    4. Bigerna, Simona & Hagspiel, Verena & Kort, Peter M. & Wen, Xingang, 2023. "How damaging are environmental policy targets in terms of welfare?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 311(1), pages 354-372.
    5. David Rios & Alex Perez & Jaime Carabali & Luis Meneses, 2024. "Poder de mercado y eventos climáticos adversos en un mercado de electricidad hidro-dominado," Borradores de Economia 1266, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Linn, Joshua & Liang, Jing & Qiu, Yueming, 2022. "Rising US Income Inequality and Declining Residential Electricity Consumption: Is There a Link?," RFF Working Paper Series 22-09, Resources for the Future.
    7. Fateh Belaïd & Christophe Rault & Camille Massié, 2022. "A life-cycle theory analysis of French household electricity demand," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 501-530, April.
    8. Brantley Liddle & Fakhri Hasanov, 2022. "Industry electricity price and output elasticities for high-income and middle-income countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1293-1319, March.
    9. Devkota, Laxmi P. & Bhattarai, Utsav & Khatri, Pawan & Marahatta, Suresh & Shrestha, Dibesh, 2022. "Resilience of hydropower plants to flow variation through the concept of flow elasticity of power: Theoretical development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 920-932.
    10. Han, Xintong & Liu, Zimin & Wang, Tong, 2023. "Nonlinear pricing in multidimensional context: An empirical analysis of energy consumption," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    11. Benedikt Janzen & Doina Radulescu, 0. "Electricity Use as a Real-Time Indicator of the Economic Burden of the COVID-19-Related Lockdown: Evidence from Switzerland," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 66(4), pages 303-321.
    12. Matteo Alpino & Luca Citino & Annalisa Frigo, 2023. "The effects of the 2021 energy crisis on medium-sized and large industrial firms: evidence from Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 776, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Chen, Shuyang, 2024. "Fertility rate, fertility policy, and climate policy: A case study in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 339-348.
    14. Honorine Dekoninck & Pauline Lesterquy & Edith Stojanovic & Julien Zory, 2023. "Les entreprises industrielles face à la transition énergétique en France – Résultats de l’enquête menée par la Banque de France en septembre 2022," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 247.
    15. Li, Guangwei & Branstetter, Lee G., 2024. "Does “Made in China 2025” work for China? Evidence from Chinese listed firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(6).
    16. Wang, Banban & Wei, Jie & Tan, Xiujie & Su, Bin, 2021. "The sectorally heterogeneous and time-varying price elasticities of energy demand in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    17. Fateh Belaïd & Christophe Rault & Camille Massié, 2021. "A Life-Cycle Analysis of French Household Electricity Demand," CESifo Working Paper Series 8814, CESifo.
    18. Greaker, Mads & Hagem, Cathrine & Proost, Stef, 2022. "An economic model of vehicle-to-grid: Impacts on the electricity market and consumer cost of electric vehicles," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    19. Pellini, Elisabetta, 2021. "Estimating income and price elasticities of residential electricity demand with Autometrics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    20. Lam Do & Thai-Ha Le, 2023. "On the welfare effect of retail electricity subsidy in Vietnam," Journal of Economics and Development, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 25(4), pages 286-301, August.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:dzimps:277911. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.dezernatzukunft.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.