IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bubdps/382020.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Procyclical asset management and bond risk premia

Author

Listed:
  • Barbu, Alexandru
  • Fricke, Christoph
  • Mönch, Emanuel

Abstract

Institutional funds have concentrated ownership by a few institutional investors, infrequent outflows and essentially no leverage. Yet using unique granular data on the bond holdings of institutional funds, we show that their trading behavior is strongly procyclical: they actively move into higher yielding, longer duration and lower rated securities in response to lower in-terest rates, and vice versa. Institutional funds' risk-taking increases when interest rates turn negative, particularly in funds with explicit minimum return guarantees. Their trading has large and persistent price impact. We provide evidence that this procyclical behavior is driven by career concerns among institutional fund managers.

Suggested Citation

  • Barbu, Alexandru & Fricke, Christoph & Mönch, Emanuel, 2020. "Procyclical asset management and bond risk premia," Discussion Papers 38/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:382020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/222546/1/172553357X.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grinblatt, Mark & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Performance Measurement without Benchmarks: An Examination of Mutual Fund Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(1), pages 47-68, January.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    3. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
    4. JONATHAN B. BERK & JULES H. van BINSBERGEN & BINYING LIU, 2017. "Matching Capital and Labor," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(6), pages 2467-2504, December.
    5. Timmer, Yannick, 2018. "Cyclical investment behavior across financial institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 268-286.
    6. Aleksandar Andonov & Rob M.M.J. Bauer & K.J. Martijn Cremers, 2017. "Pension Fund Asset Allocation and Liability Discount Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(8), pages 2555-2595.
    7. Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Hao & Ng, David T., 2017. "Investor flows and fragility in corporate bond funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 592-613.
    8. Antonio Falato & Itay Goldstein & Ali Hortaçsu, 2020. "Financial Fragility in the COVID-19 Crisis: The Case of Investment Funds in Corporate Bond Markets," Working Papers 2020-98, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    9. Falato, Antonio & Goldstein, Itay & Hortaçsu, Ali, 2021. "Financial fragility in the COVID-19 crisis: The case of investment funds in corporate bond markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 35-52.
    10. Choi, Jaewon & Hoseinzade, Saeid & Shin, Sean Seunghun & Tehranian, Hassan, 2020. "Corporate bond mutual funds and asset fire sales," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 432-457.
    11. Bo Becker & Victoria Ivashina, 2015. "Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 1863-1902, October.
    12. Robin Greenwood & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2018. "The Impact of Pensions and Insurance on Global Yield Curves," Harvard Business School Working Papers 18-109, Harvard Business School, revised Dec 2018.
    13. Clemens Sialm & Laura T. Starks & Hanjiang Zhang, 2015. "Defined Contribution Pension Plans: Sticky or Discerning Money?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(2), pages 805-838, April.
    14. Jeffrey A. Busse & Amit Goyal & Sunil Wahal, 2010. "Performance and Persistence in Institutional Investment Management," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 765-790, April.
    15. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2019. "A Demand System Approach to Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1475-1515.
    16. Andrew Ellul & Marco Pagano & Annalisa Scognamiglio, 2020. "Career Risk and Market Discipline in Asset Management," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 783-828.
    17. Chevalier, Judith & Ellison, Glenn, 1997. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1167-1200, December.
    18. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Risk Premium Shifts and Monetary Policy: A Coordination Approach," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Elías Albagli & Diego Saravia & Michael Woodford (ed.),Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edition 1, volume 24, chapter 5, pages 131-150, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Kremer, Manfred & Lo Duca, Marco & Holló, Dániel, 2012. "CISS - a composite indicator of systemic stress in the financial system," Working Paper Series 1426, European Central Bank.
    20. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1589-1622 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Veronica Guerrieri & Peter Kondor, 2012. "Fund Managers, Career Concerns, and Asset Price Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 1986-2017, August.
    22. Judith Chevalier & Glenn Ellison, 1999. "Career Concerns of Mutual Fund Managers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 389-432.
    23. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
    24. Tim Jenkinson & Howard Jones & Jose Vicente Martinez, 2016. "Picking Winners? Investment Consultants’ Recommendations of Fund Managers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(5), pages 2333-2370, October.
    25. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    26. Di Maggio, Marco & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2017. "The unintended consequences of the zero lower bound policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 59-80.
    27. Chen, Qi & Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Wei, 2010. "Payoff complementarities and financial fragility: Evidence from mutual fund outflows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 239-262, August.
    28. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111426 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Cuoco, Domenico & Kaniel, Ron, 2011. "Equilibrium prices in the presence of delegated portfolio management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 264-296, August.
    30. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2013. "Issuer Quality and Corporate Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(6), pages 1483-1525.
    31. Dietrich Domanski & Hyun Song Shin & Vladyslav Sushko, 2017. "The Hunt for Duration: Not Waving but Drowning?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(1), pages 113-153, April.
    32. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
    33. Clemens Sialm & Laura Starks & Hanjiang Zhang, 2015. "Defined Contribution Pension Plans: Mutual Fund Asset Allocation Changes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 432-436, May.
    34. Vedolin, Andrea & Leombroni, Matteo & , & Whelan, Paul, 2018. "Central Bank Communication and the Yield Curve," CEPR Discussion Papers 12970, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    36. Josef Lakonishok & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1992. "The Structure and Performance of the Money Management Industry," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1992 Micr), pages 339-391.
    37. Suleyman Basak & Anna Pavlova, 2013. "Asset Prices and Institutional Investors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1728-1758, August.
    38. Hanson, Samuel G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2015. "Monetary policy and long-term real rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 429-448.
    39. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    40. Chen Lian & Yueran Ma & Carmen Wang, 2019. "Low Interest Rates and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(6), pages 2107-2148.
    41. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Price Pressure in the Government Bond Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 585-590, May.
    42. Sven Klingler & Suresh Sundaresan, 2019. "An Explanation of Negative Swap Spreads: Demand for Duration from Underfunded Pension Plans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(2), pages 675-710, April.
    43. Amit Goyal & Sunil Wahal, 2008. "The Selection and Termination of Investment Management Firms by Plan Sponsors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1805-1847, August.
    44. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Has Finance Made the World Riskier?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(4), pages 499-533, September.
    45. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Christopher R. Blake, 2014. "The Performance of Separate Accounts and Collective Investment Trusts," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(5), pages 1717-1742.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leonardo Quero Virla, 2023. "An empirical characterization of volatility in the German stock market," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(7), pages 1-19, July.
    2. Fricke, Daniel, 2021. "Synthetic Leverage and Fund Risk-Taking," ESRB Working Paper Series 126, European Systemic Risk Board.
    3. Ryan, Ellen, 2022. "Are fund managers rewarded for taking cyclical risks?," Working Paper Series 2652, European Central Bank.
    4. Ryan, Ellen, 2022. "Are fund managers rewarded for taking cyclical risks?," ESRB Working Paper Series 134, European Systemic Risk Board.
    5. Virla, Leonardo Quero, 2021. "An empirical characterization of volatility dynamics in the DAX," IPE Working Papers 167/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jansen, Kristy, 2021. "Essays on institutional investors, portfolio choice, and asset prices," Other publications TiSEM fd998408-d282-4e0f-b542-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Dekker, Lennart, 2024. "Essays on asset liquidity and investment funds," Other publications TiSEM 5fc9bf77-84e7-4a36-9e3a-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Timmer, Yannick, 2018. "Cyclical investment behavior across financial institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 268-286.
    4. Valentin Haddad & Alan Moreira & Tyler Muir, 2021. "When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed’s Response [Funding value adjustments]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5309-5351.
    5. Maximilian Konradt, 2023. "Do pension funds reach for yield? Evidence from a new database," IHEID Working Papers 01-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    6. Dasgupta, Amil & Choi, Jaewon & Oh, Ji Yeol Jimmy, 2019. "Bond Funds and Credit Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 14134, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Mählmann, Thomas, 2022. "Negative externalities of mutual fund instability: Evidence from leveraged loan funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    8. Robert Czech & Matt Roberts‐Sklar, 2019. "Investor behaviour and reaching for yield: Evidence from the sterling corporate bond market," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(5), pages 347-379, December.
    9. Clemens Sialm & Laura T. Starks & Hanjiang Zhang, 2015. "Defined Contribution Pension Plans: Sticky or Discerning Money?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(2), pages 805-838, April.
    10. Cai, Fang & Han, Song & Li, Dan & Li, Yi, 2019. "Institutional herding and its price impact: Evidence from the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 139-167.
    11. Kubitza, Christian & Grochola, Nicolaus & Gründl, Helmut, 2021. "Life insurance convexity," ICIR Working Paper Series 42/21, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    12. Jiang, Hao & Li, Yi & Sun, Zheng & Wang, Ashley, 2022. "Does mutual fund illiquidity introduce fragility into asset prices? Evidence from the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 277-302.
    13. Jannic Cutura & Gianpaolo Parise & Andreas Schrimpf, 2020. "Debt De-risking," BIS Working Papers 868, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Hodula, Martin & Szabo, Milan & Bajzík, Josef, 2024. "Retail fund flows and performance: Insights from supervisory data," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    15. Warinthip Worasak & Nuwat Nookhwun & Pongpitch Amatyakul, 2022. "Monetary Policy and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Thai Corporate Bond Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 186, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Matteo Bonetti, 2021. "Pension Fund Equity Performance: Herding Does Not Pay Off," Working Papers 729, DNB.
    17. James Brugler & Minsoo Kim & Zhuo Zhong, 2024. "Liquidity shocks and pension fund performance: Evidence from early access," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 49(2), pages 170-191, May.
    18. Fricke, Daniel, 2021. "Synthetic leverage and fund risk-taking," Discussion Papers 09/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2015. "Money Doctors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(1), pages 91-114, February.
      • Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, "undated". "Money Doctors," Working Paper 69721, Harvard University OpenScholar.
      • Gennaioli, Nicola & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 2014. "Money Doctors," Scholarly Articles 12965657, Harvard University Department of Economics.
      • Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2012. "Money Doctors," Working Papers 464, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
      • Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 2012. "Money Doctors," NBER Working Papers 18174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, "undated". "Money Doctors," Working Paper 228501, Harvard University OpenScholar.
      • Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2012. "Money doctors," Economics Working Papers 1355, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    20. Philippe van der Beck & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Dario Villamaina, 2024. "Ponzi Funds," Papers 2405.12768, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    institutional funds; institutional accounts; procyclical asset management; portfolio rebalancing; price impact; demand pressures; asset price volatility; career concerns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:382020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.