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Does banks size distort market prices? Evidence for too-big-to-fail in the CDS market

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  • Völz, Manja
  • Wedow, Michael

Abstract

This paper examines the potential distortion of prices in the CDS market caused by too-big-to-fail. Overall, we find evidence for market discipline in the CDS market. However, CDS prices are distorted due to a size effect which arises when investors expect a public bail-out as a result of too-big-to-fail. A one percentage point increase in size reduces the CDS spread of a bank by about two basis points. We further find that some banks have already reached a size that makes them too-big-to-be-rescued. While the price distortion for these banks decreases the existence of banks that are considered to be toobig-to-rescue raises important new issues for banking supervisors.

Suggested Citation

  • Völz, Manja & Wedow, Michael, 2009. "Does banks size distort market prices? Evidence for too-big-to-fail in the CDS market," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2009,06, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:200906
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    Cited by:

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    2. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2012. "Taming SIFIs," Economics Working Papers 1328, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    3. Xavier Freixas & Jean‐Charles Rochet, 2013. "Taming Systemically Important Financial Institutions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s1), pages 37-58, August.
    4. Charles Goodhart, 2011. "Moral Hazard," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Green & Eric J. Pentecost & Tom Weyman-Jones (ed.), The Financial Crisis and the Regulation of Finance, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Günther, Susanne, 2013. "Eine ökonomische Analyse der Systemrelevanz von Banken," Arbeitspapiere 139, University of Münster, Institute for Cooperatives.
    6. Keiler, Sebastian & Eder, Armin, 2013. "CDS spreads and systemic risk: A spatial econometric approach," Discussion Papers 01/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Poghosyan, Tigran & Werger, Charlotte & de Haan, Jakob, 2016. "Size and support ratings of US banks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 236-247.
    8. Giuliano Iannotta, 2011. "Market discipline in the banking industry: evidence from spread dispersion," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 111-131.
    9. Phil Molyneux & Klaus Schaeck & Tim Zhou, 2011. "‘Too Systemically Important to Fail’ in Banking," Working Papers 11011, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market Discipline; Too Big To Fail; Too Big to Rescue CDS Spreads;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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