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Does anticipation of government spending matter? Evidence from an expectation augmented VAR

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  • Tenhofen, Jörn
  • Wolff, Guntram B.

Abstract

How does private consumption react to an exogenous increase in government expenditure? Standard structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) usually report a positive GDP as well as consumption response, while event studies report a negative consumption response. We investigate in a SVAR whether anticipation of the fiscal shock reverses the sign of this dynamic response to a negative one. As a methodological contribution, we model expectation formation within a SVAR framework. We show for the US that consumption falls in reaction to an expenditure shock once the model allows for one-period-ahead anticipation of this shock. Modelling anticipation of fiscal shocks is thus crucial to correctly capture their macroeconomic effects. Differences in results between event studies and VARs can be explained by missing anticipation in VARs. When re-estimating the two models (with and without anticipation) for non-defense related expenditures, we find a positive consumption response for both models. The implications of our results for macroeconomic theory are briefly discussed.

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  • Tenhofen, Jörn & Wolff, Guntram B., 2007. "Does anticipation of government spending matter? Evidence from an expectation augmented VAR," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,14, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:5866
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    Cited by:

    1. Umut UNAL, 2015. "Rethinking The Effects Of Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Disaggregated Svar Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 120-135, September.
    2. Caldara, Dario & Kamps, Christophe, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 877, European Central Bank.
    3. Tenhofen, Jörn & Wolff, Guntram B., 2010. "Does anticipation of government spending matter? The role of (non-)defense spending," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 12/2010, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    4. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
    5. Shafik Hebous, 2011. "The Effects Of Discretionary Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 674-707, September.
    6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Michael P. Devereux & Luigi Guiso & John Hassler & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2010. "Chapter 3: From Fiscal Rescue to Global Debt," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 71-100, February.
    7. Valerie A. Ramey, 2008. "Comment on "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 237-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Pedro Gomes, 2009. "Labour market effects of public sector employment and wages," 2009 Meeting Papers 313, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Mvondo, Thierry, 2021. "Stabilisation et relance macroéconomiques post COVID-19 dans la CEMAC : Quels instruments pour quels effets dans un modèle DSGE ?," Dynare Working Papers 65, CEPREMAP.
    10. Ricco, Giovanni & Ellahie, Atif, 2012. "Government Spending Reloaded: Fundamentalness and Heterogeneity in Fiscal SVARs," MPRA Paper 42105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jorge Fornero & Juan Guerra-Salas & Camilo Pérez N., 2019. "Multiplicadores fiscales en Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 22(1), pages 058-080, April.
    12. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
    13. Jia, Bijie, 2018. "Second Thoughts on Estimating Expansionary Fiscal Policy E ffects in the United States," MPRA Paper 90298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kevin A. Hassett, 2009. "Why Fiscal Stimulus is Unlikely to Work," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 75-91, May.
    15. J. Stephen Ferris, 2010. "Fiscal Policy from a Public Choice Perspective," Carleton Economic Papers 10-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    16. Jia, Bijie, 2017. "A Second Thought on Estimating Expansionary Fiscal Policy Effects in the U.S," MPRA Paper 89264, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2018.
    17. Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2012. "Pre-announcement and timing: The effects of a government expenditure shock," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 373-388.
    18. Burgert, Matthias & Gomes, Pedro, 2011. "The Effects of Government Spending: A Disaggregated Approach," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48690, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; government spending; net revenue; policy anticipation; structural vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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