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评估房产税的经济影响——基于模型校准的政策实验方法

Author

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  • 廖谋华
  • 韩颖杰

Abstract

内容提要:根据我国的经济特征和实际数据,本文建立和校准了一个在20多个方面跟我国的宏观经济状况、房地产市场、城市化、城乡差异、土地财政相吻合的一般均衡模型,来讨论我国即将开征的房产税对房价、房价收入比、地方政府财政收入等的影响。我们发现,开征房产税,可以有效地降低房价及房价收入比,增加地方政府的财政收入,减少地方政府对土地财政的依赖程度。例如,我们在校准后的模型中引入税率为0.5%的房产税的政策实验后,房价下降了4.07%,这一结果介于现有文献的估计结果中间。另外,房价收入比下降了5.26%,地方政府财政收入增加了3.75%,房产税收入可以替代城市土地总出让收益的22.40%。同时,房产税对住房消费量、城市化率、平均容积率、名义GDP、农村工资率、社会福利水平等有轻微的负面影响,而对城市工资率、城乡收入差距、社会资本存量等有微小的正影响。我们的分析框架,可以用来全面评估房产税的经济影响,并为制定合理的房产税率提供政策建议。

Suggested Citation

  • 廖谋华 & 韩颖杰, 2019. "评估房产税的经济影响——基于模型校准的政策实验方法," Working Papers 2019-09-19, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  • Handle: RePEc:wyi:wpaper:002552
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    Keywords

    房产税;房价;地方政府财政收入 ;政策实验;校准;

    JEL classification:

    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R51 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Finance in Urban and Rural Economies

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