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Causation Delays and Causal Neutralization for General Horizons: The Money-Output Relationship Revisited

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  • Jonathan B. Hill

    (Florida International University)

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a parametric test procedure for multiple horizon "Granger" causality and apply the procedure to the well established problem of determining causal patterns in aggregate monthly U.S. money and output. As opposed to most papers in the parametric causality literature, we are interested in whether money ever "causes" (can ever be used to forecast) output, when causation occurs, and how (through which causal chains). Our tests are based on new recursive parametric characterizations of causality chains which help to distinguish between mere noncausation (the total absence of indirect causal routes) and causal neutralization, in which several causal routes exists that cancel each other out such that noncausation occurs. In many cases the recursive characterizations imply greatly simplified linear compound hypotheses for multi-step ahead causation, and permit Wald tests with the usual asymptotic ÷²-distribution. A simulation study demonstrates that a sequential test method does not generate the type of size distortions typically reported in the literature, and null rejection frequencies depend entirely on how we define the "null hypothesis" of non-causality (at which horizon, if any). Using monthly data employed in Stock and Watson (1989), and others, we demonstrate that while Friedman and Kuttner's (1993) result that detrended money growth fails to cause output one month ahead continues into the third quarter of 2003, a significant causal lag may exist through a variety of short-term interest rates: money appears to cause output after at least one month passes, although in some cases using recent data conflicting evidence suggests money may never cause output and be truly irrelevant in matters of real decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Causation Delays and Causal Neutralization for General Horizons: The Money-Output Relationship Revisited," Econometrics 0402002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Mar 2005.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0402002
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Pelletier, Denis & Renault, Eric, 2006. "Short run and long run causality in time series: inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 337-362, June.
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    6. Jean-Marie Dufour & Eric Renault, 1998. "Short Run and Long Run Causality in Time Series: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1099-1126, September.
    7. Benjamin M. Friedman & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1990. "Another look at the evidence on money-income casualty," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:4:p:506-32 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    multiple horizon causation; multivariate time series; sequential tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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