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Scenario Modeling for the Management of International Bond Portfolios

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  • Andrea Beltratti
  • Andrea Consiglio
  • Stavros A. Zenios

Abstract

We address the problem of portfolio management in the international bond markets. Interest rate risk in the local market, exchange rate volatility across markets, and decisions for hedging currency risk are integral parts of this problem. The paper develops a stochastic programming optimization model for integrating these decisions in a common framework. Monte Carlo simulation procedures, calibrated using historical observations of volatility and correlation data, generate jointly scenarios of interest and exchange rates. The decision maker's risk tolerance is incorporated through a utility function, and additional views on market outlook can also be incorporated in the form of user specified scenarios. The model prescribes optimal asset allocation among the different markets and determines bond-picking decisions and appropriate hedging ratios. Therefore several interrelated decisions are cast in a common framework, while in the past these issues were addressed separately. Empirical results illustrate the efficacy of the simulation models in capturing the uncertainties of the Salomon Brothers international bond market index.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Beltratti & Andrea Consiglio & Stavros A. Zenios, 1998. "Scenario Modeling for the Management of International Bond Portfolios," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-20, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Handle: RePEc:wop:pennin:98-20
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    Cited by:

    1. Nonthachote Chatsanga & Andrew J. Parkes, 2016. "International Portfolio Optimisation with Integrated Currency Overlay Costs and Constraints," Papers 1611.01463, arXiv.org.
    2. Vladislav Kargin, 2003. "Portfolio Management for a Random Field of Bond Returns," Finance 0310007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Vladislav Kargin, 2002. "On Bond Portfolio Management," Papers math/0208130, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2003.
    4. Yonghan Feng & Sarah Ryan, 2016. "Solution sensitivity-based scenario reduction for stochastic unit commitment," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 29-62, January.
    5. Frauendorfer, Karl & Schurle, Michael, 2003. "Management of non-maturing deposits by multistage stochastic programming," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(3), pages 602-616, December.
    6. Andrea Beltratti & Paolo Colla, 2007. "A portfolio-based evaluation of affine term structure models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 193-222, April.

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