IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/vuw/vuwecf/20245.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A viable and cost-effective weather index insurance for rice in Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Kusuma, Aditya
  • Noy, Ilan
  • Jackson, Bethanna

Abstract

The potentially adverse effects of droughts on agricultural output are obvious. Indonesian rice farmers have no financial protection from climate risk via catastrophic weather risk transfer tools. Done well, a weather index insurance (WII) program can not only provide resources that enable recovery, but can also facilitate the adoption of prevention and adaptation measures and incentivise risk reduction. Here, we quantify the applicability, viability, and likely cost of introducing a WII for droughts for rice production in Indonesia. To reduce basis risk, we construct district specific indices that are based on the estimation of Panel Geographically Weighted Regressions models. With these spatial tools, and detailed district level data on past agricultural productivity and weather conditions, we present an algorithm that generates an effective and actuarially sound WII, and measure its effectiveness in reducing income volatility for farmers. We use data on annual paddy production in 428 Indonesian districts, reported over the period 1990-2013, and climate data from 1950-2015. We use the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index and identify district-specific trigger and exit points for the insurance plan. We quantify the impact of this hypothetical insurance product using past production data to calculate an actuarially-robust and welfare-enhancing price for this scheme.

Suggested Citation

  • Kusuma, Aditya & Noy, Ilan & Jackson, Bethanna, 2017. "A viable and cost-effective weather index insurance for rice in Indonesia," Working Paper Series 20245, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:20245
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ir.wgtn.ac.nz/handle/123456789/20245
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Toshichika Iizumi & Jing-Jia Luo & Andrew J. Challinor & Gen Sakurai & Masayuki Yokozawa & Hirofumi Sakuma & Molly E. Brown & Toshio Yamagata, 2014. "Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, September.
    2. Skees, Jerry & Gober, Stephanie & Varangis, Panos & Le, 2001. "Developing rainfall-based index insurance in Morocco," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2577, The World Bank.
    3. Sally Owen & Ilan Noy, 2017. "The Unfortunate Regressivity of Public Natural Hazard Insurance: A Quantitative Analysis of a New Zealand Case," CESifo Working Paper Series 6540, CESifo.
    4. Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2010. "Specification and estimation of spatial autoregressive models with autoregressive and heteroskedastic disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(1), pages 53-67, July.
    5. Veronika Bertram-Huemmer & Kati Kraehnert, 2018. "Does Index Insurance Help Households Recover from Disaster? Evidence from IBLI Mongolia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(1), pages 145-171.
    6. Cai, Ruohong & Yu, Danlin & Oppenheimer, Michael, 2014. "Estimating the Spatially Varying Responses of Corn Yields toWeather Variations using GeographicallyWeighted Panel Regression," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 1-23.
    7. Nicholas D. Paulson & Chad E. Hart & Dermot J. Hayes, 2010. "A spatial Bayesian approach to weather derivatives," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 70(1), pages 79-96, May.
    8. Emmanuel Skoufias & Roy S. Katayama & B. Essama-Nssah, 2012. "Too little too late: welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 351-368, December.
    9. Hans P. Binswanger-Mkhize, 2012. "Is There Too Much Hype about Index-based Agricultural Insurance?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 187-200, February.
    10. Skees, Jerry & Varangis, Panos & Larson, Donald & Siegel, Paul, 2002. "Can financial markets be tapped to help poor people cope with weather risks ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2812, The World Bank.
    11. Skoufias, Emmanuel, 2003. "Economic Crises and Natural Disasters: Coping Strategies and Policy Implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1087-1102, July.
    12. Dercon, Stefan & Hill, Ruth Vargas & Clarke, Daniel & Outes-Leon, Ingo & Seyoum Taffesse, Alemayehu, 2014. "Offering rainfall insurance to informal insurance groups: Evidence from a field experiment in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 132-143.
    13. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    14. Olivier Mahul, 2001. "Optimal Insurance Against Climatic Experience," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 593-604.
    15. Benjamin Collier & Jerry Skees & Barry Barnett, 2009. "Weather Index Insurance and Climate Change: Opportunities and Challenges in Lower Income Countries," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 34(3), pages 401-424, July.
    16. Michael Carter & Alain de Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet & Alexandros Sarris, 2017. "Index Insurance for Developing Country Agriculture: A Reassessment," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 421-438, October.
    17. Skees, Jerry & Hazell, P. B. R. & Miranda, Mario, 1999. "New approaches to crop yield insurance in developing countries:," EPTD discussion papers 55, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    18. Olivier Mahul & Charles J. Stutley, 2010. "Government Support to Agricultural Insurance : Challenges and Options for Developing Countries," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2432.
    19. Jamie Sanderson & Sardar M. N. Islam, 2007. "Climate Change and Economic Development," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-59012-0, March.
    20. Mario J. Miranda & Katie Farrin, 2012. "Index Insurance for Developing Countries," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 391-427.
    21. Jerry R. Skees & J. Roy Black & Barry J. Barnett, 1997. "Designing and Rating an Area Yield Crop Insurance Contract," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(2), pages 430-438.
    22. James LeSage & Matthew Dominguez, 2012. "The importance of modeling spatial spillovers in public choice analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(3), pages 525-545, March.
    23. Askar Choudhury & James Jones & Adolph Okine & Raquiba (Lena) Choudhury, 2016. "Drought†Triggered Index Insurance Using Cluster Analysis of Rainfall Affected by Climate Change," Journal of Insurance Issues, Western Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 39(2), pages 169-186.
    24. Luc Anselin, 2001. "Spatial Effects in Econometric Practice in Environmental and Resource Economics," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 705-710.
    25. Barnett, Barry J., 2004. "Agricultural Index Insurance Products: Strengths And Limitations," Agricultural Outlook Forum 2004 32971, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Outlook Forum.
    26. A S Fotheringham & M E Charlton & C Brunsdon, 1998. "Geographically Weighted Regression: A Natural Evolution of the Expansion Method for Spatial Data Analysis," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 30(11), pages 1905-1927, November.
    27. Berloffa, Gabriella & Modena, Francesca, 2013. "Income shocks, coping strategies, and consumption smoothing: An application to Indonesian data," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 158-171.
    28. Kellner, Ulla & Musshoff, Oliver, 2011. "Precipitation or water capacity indices? An analysis of the benefits of alternative underlyings for index insurance," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(8), pages 645-653, October.
    29. Sally Owen & Ilan Noy, 2017. "The Unfortunate Regressivity of Public Natural Hazard Insurance: A Quantitative Analysis of a New Zealand Case," CESifo Working Paper Series 6540, CESifo.
    30. Huck-ju Kwon & Woo-rim Kim, 2015. "The Evolution of Cash Transfers in Indonesia: Policy Transfer and National Adaptation," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies 201534, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    31. Million Tadesse & Bekele Shiferaw & Olaf Erenstein, 2015. "Weather index insurance for managing drought risk in smallholder agriculture: lessons and policy implications for sub-Saharan Africa," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, December.
    32. Olivier Mahul, 2001. "Optimal insurance against climatic experience," Post-Print hal-01952102, HAL.
    33. Noy, Ilan & Kusuma, Aditya & Nguyen, Cuong, 2017. "Insuring disasters: A survey of the economics of insurance programs for earthquakes and droughts," Working Paper Series 6408, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    34. A. Stewart Fotheringham & Wenbai Yang & Wei Kang, 2017. "Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR)," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 107(6), pages 1247-1265, November.
    35. Mario Miranda & Dmitry V. Vedenov, 2001. "Innovations in Agricultural and Natural Disaster Insurance," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 650-655.
    36. Joshua D Woodard & Apurba Shee & Andrew Mude, 2016. "A Spatial Econometric Approach to Designing and Rating Scalable Index Insurance in the Presence of Missing Data," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 41(2), pages 259-279, April.
    37. Clarke,Daniel Jonathan & Mahul,Olivier & Rao,Kolli Nageswara & Verma,Niraj, 2012. "Weather based crop insurance in India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5985, The World Bank.
    38. Antoine Leblois & Philippe Quirion, 2013. "Agricultural insurances based on meteorological indices: realizations, methods and research challenges," Post-Print hal-00656778, HAL.
    39. Huck-ju Kwon & Woo-rim Kim, 2015. "The Evolution of Cash Transfers in Indonesia: Policy Transfer and National Adaptation," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 425-440, May.
    40. Hong Shi & Zhihui Jiang, 2016. "The efficiency of composite weather index insurance in hedging rice yield risk: evidence from China," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(3), pages 319-328, May.
    41. Nicholas D. Paulson & Chad E. Hart & Dermot J. Hayes, 2010. "A spatial Bayesian approach to weather derivatives," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 70(1), pages 79-96, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thakur, Jagruti & Hesamzadeh, Mohammad Reza & Date, Paresh & Bunn, Derek, 2023. "Pricing and hedging wind power prediction risk with binary option contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aditya Kusuma & Bethanna Jackson & Ilan Noy, 2018. "A viable and cost-effective weather index insurance for rice in Indonesia," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 43(2), pages 186-218, September.
    2. Barnett, Barry J. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Skees, Jerry R., 2008. "Poverty Traps and Index-Based Risk Transfer Products," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1766-1785, October.
    3. Million Tadesse & Bekele Shiferaw & Olaf Erenstein, 2015. "Weather index insurance for managing drought risk in smallholder agriculture: lessons and policy implications for sub-Saharan Africa," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Glauber, Joseph W., 2017. "Agricultural insurance and the WTO:," IFPRI book chapters, in: Bouët, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David (ed.), Agriculture, development, and the global trading system: 2000– 2015, chapter 10, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Stoeffler, Quentin & Opuz, Gülce, 2022. "Price, information and product quality: Explaining index insurance demand in Burkina Faso," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    6. Isaboke, Hezron Nyarindo & Qiao, Zhang & Nyarindo, Wilckyster Nyateko & Ke, Wang, 2016. "Explaining The Perception Of Smallholders Towards Weather Index Micro-Insurance Alongside Risks And Coping Strategies," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 4(4), pages 1-19, October.
    7. Mengmeng Qiang & Manhong Shen & Guanjun Xia, 2023. "The effectiveness of weather index insurance in managing mariculture production risk," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(2), pages 245-262, April.
    8. Christian Hott & Judith Regner, 2023. "Weather extremes, agriculture and the value of weather index insurance," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 48(2), pages 230-259, September.
    9. Juárez-Torres, Miriam & Sánchez-Aragón, Leonardo & Vedenov, Dmitry, 2017. "Weather Derivatives and Water Management in Developing Countries: An Application for an Irrigation District in Central Mexico," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 42(2), May.
    10. Quentin Stoeffler & Michael Carter & Catherine Guirkinger & Wouter Gelade, 2022. "The Spillover Impact of Index Insurance on Agricultural Investment by Cotton Farmers in Burkina Faso," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 114-140.
    11. Alexis Berg & Philippe Quirion & Benjamin Sultan, 2009. "Weather-index drought insurance in Burkina-Faso: assessment of its potential interest to farmers," Post-Print hal-00520893, HAL.
    12. Antoine Leblois & Philippe Quirion, 2013. "Agricultural insurances based on meteorological indices: realizations, methods and research challenges," Post-Print hal-00656778, HAL.
    13. Petraud, Jean & Boucher, Stephen & Carter, Michael, 2015. "Competing theories of risk preferences and the demand for crop insurance: Experimental evidence from Peru," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211383, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Quaas, Martin F. & Baumgärtner, Stefan, 2008. "Natural vs. financial insurance in the management of public-good ecosystems," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 397-406, April.
    15. Stefan Baumgärtner & Martin F. Quaas, 2007. "Agro-biodiversity as natural insurance and the development of financial insurance markets," Working Paper Series in Economics 61, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    16. Daniel J. Clarke, 2016. "A Theory of Rational Demand for Index Insurance," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 283-306, February.
    17. Anita Mukherjee & Shawn Cole & Jeremy Tobacman, 2021. "Targeting weather insurance markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(3), pages 757-784, September.
    18. Sibiko, Kenneth W. & Veettil, Prakashan C. & Qaim, Matin, 2016. "Small Farmers’ Preferences for Weather Index Insurance: Insights from Kenya," 2016 Fifth International Conference, September 23-26, 2016, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 246399, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    19. Budhathoki, Nanda Kaji & Lassa, Jonatan A. & Pun, Sirish & Zander, Kerstin K., 2019. "Farmers’ interest and willingness-to-pay for index-based crop insurance in the lowlands of Nepal," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1-10.
    20. Xiao Lin & W. Jean Kwon, 2020. "Application of parametric insurance in principle‐compliant and innovative ways," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 121-150, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indonesia; Weather index insurance; Droughts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:20245. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Library Technology Services (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/egvuwnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.