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The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development

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  • Matteo Cervellati
  • Uwe Sunde

Abstract

We present a theory of the economic and demographic transition where adult longevity, child mortality, fertility and the education composition of the population are jointly determined. The model allows for an investigation of the determinants of underdevelopment traps as well as of the mechanism that leads to an endogenous exit out of the trap. We also study the different roles of exogenous reductions in mortality and of permanent differences in extrinsic mortality for comparative development. The theory delivers a series of novel predictions which are illustrated with a simple dynamic simulation of the model. These predictions are shown to be consistent with evidence using both time series data and crosscountry panel data.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2008. "The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-21, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:dp2008:2008-21
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic and Demographic Transition; Adult Longevity; Child Mortality; Heterogeneous Human Capital; Comparative Development; Development Traps; Kernel Distributions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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