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The Impact of Grade Retention on Juvenile Crime

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Diaz
  • Nicolas Grau
  • Tatiana Reyes
  • Jorge Rivera

Abstract

Implementing a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we estimate a local causal effect of grade retention on juvenile crime. We assemble a novel data set that merges administrative information on schooling and juvenile crime for the entire population of students during the period 2007 – 2014 in Chile. Our main finding shows robust evidence that repeating a grade in school increases the probability of juvenile delinquency by 1.8 percentage points (pp), an increase of 37.5% of that probability. This effect is higher for males, and twice the indicated value for students of low socioeconomic status. We also show that grade retention increases the probability of dropping out of school by 1.5 pp. Regarding mechanisms, our findings suggest that the effect of grade retention on crime does not only manifest itself indirectly as a result of its effect on dropping out. In fact, the effect of grade retention on crime is greater when students switch schools right after failing a grade.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Diaz & Nicolas Grau & Tatiana Reyes & Jorge Rivera, 2016. "The Impact of Grade Retention on Juvenile Crime," Working Papers wp429, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp429
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chao Fu & Nicolás Grau & Jorge Rivera, 2022. "Wandering astray: Teenagers' choices of schooling and crime," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), pages 387-424, May.
    2. Alejandro Bayas & Nicolas Grau, 2021. "Inequality of Opportunity and Juvenile Crime," Working Papers wp524, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    3. Bayas, Alejandro & Grau, Nicolás, 2023. "Inequality of opportunity in juvenile crime and education," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    4. Solis, Alex, 2017. "The Effects of Grade Retention on Human Capital Accumulation," Working Paper Series 2017:15, Uppsala University, Department of Economics, revised 07 Dec 2017.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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