IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/udb/wpaper/uwec-2006-19-r.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Gone With the Wind? Hurricane Risk, Fertility and Education

Author

Listed:
  • Claus Portner

Abstract

Despite a large literature on fertility and education there has been little research on how these joint decisions are affected by risks and shocks. This paper uses data on hurricanes in Guatemala combined with a household survey to analyse how households' decisions on fertility and investments in education respond to both risk and shocks. The data on hurricanes cover the period 1880 to 1997 and allow for the calculation of hurricane risk by municipality. An increase in risk leads to higher fertility for households with land, while households without land reduce fertility. For both types of households higher risk is associated with higher education but the effect is largest for households without land. Negative shocks lead to decreases in both fertility and education. There is a compensatory effect later in life for fertility, but not for education, indicating that births "lost" to shocks can be made up but lost schooling cannot. The most convincing explanation for these patterns is parents' need for insurance.

Suggested Citation

  • Claus Portner, 2006. "Gone With the Wind? Hurricane Risk, Fertility and Education," Working Papers UWEC-2006-19-R, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008.
    • Handle: RePEc:udb:wpaper:uwec-2006-19-r
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://faculty.washington.edu/cportner/papers/gone.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mette Ejrnæs & Claus C. Pörtner, 2004. "Birth Order and the Intrahousehold Allocation of Time and Education," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 1008-1019, November.
    2. Tommy Bengtsson & Martin Dribe, 2006. "Deliberate control in a natural fertility population: Southern Sweden, 1766–1864," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 43(4), pages 727-746, November.
    3. Dercon, Stefan, 1996. "Risk, Crop Choice, and Savings: Evidence from Tanzania," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(3), pages 485-513, April.
    4. Burgess, Robin & Stern, Nicholas, 1993. "Taxation and Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 762-830, June.
    5. Foster, Andrew D & Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1996. "Technical Change and Human-Capital Returns and Investments: Evidence from the Green Revolution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 931-953, September.
    6. Kathleen Beegle & Rajeev Dehejia & Roberta Gatti, 2009. "Why Should We Care About Child Labor?: The Education, Labor Market, and Health Consequences of Child Labor," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(4).
    7. Paxson, Christina H, 1992. "Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 15-33, March.
    8. HwaJung Choi, 2007. "Are Remittances Insurance? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in the Philippines," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(2), pages 219-248, May.
    9. Beegle, Kathleen & Dehejia, Rajeev H. & Gatti, Roberta, 2006. "Child labor and agricultural shocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 80-96, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Guo, 2011. "Long-run consequences of natural disasters: Evidence from Tangshan," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 82, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    2. Ferreira, Francisco H. G. & Schady, Norbert, 2008. "Aggregate economic shocks, child schooling and child health," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4701, The World Bank.
    3. Fetzer, Thiemo & Pardo Reinoso, Oliver Enrique & Shanghavi, Amar, 2013. "An urban legend?! Power rationing, fertility and its effects on mothers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121786, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Khandaker Jafor Ahmed & Shah Md Atiqul Haq, 2024. "Perceived risk of child mortality and fertility choices in climate-vulnerable regions of Bangladesh," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, December.
    5. Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2009. "Fertility response to natural disasters : the case of three high mortality earthquakes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4883, The World Bank.
    6. Claus C Pörtner, 2010. "Natural Hazards and Child Health," Working Papers UWEC-2010-03, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    7. Strobl, Eric, 2012. "The economic growth impact of natural disasters in developing countries: Evidence from hurricane strikes in the Central American and Caribbean regions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 130-141.
    8. Lisa Cameron & Manisha Shah, 2015. "Risk-Taking Behavior in the Wake of Natural Disasters," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 484-515.
    9. Javier E. Baez & Leonardo Lucchetti & Maria E. Genoni & Mateo Salazar, 2017. "Gone with the Storm: Rainfall Shocks and Household Wellbeing in Guatemala," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(8), pages 1253-1271, August.
    10. van den Berg, Marrit, 2010. "Household income strategies and natural disasters: Dynamic livelihoods in rural Nicaragua," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 592-602, January.
    11. Boberg-Fazlic, Nina & Ivets, Maryna & Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese, 2017. "Disease and Fertility: Evidence from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Sweden," IZA Discussion Papers 10834, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Sellers, Samuel & Gray, Clark, 2019. "Climate shocks constrain human fertility in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 357-369.
    13. J. V. Rush, 2018. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Education in Indonesia," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 137-158, July.
    14. Burlando, Alfredo, 2014. "Transitory shocks and birth weights: Evidence from a blackout in Zanzibar," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 154-168.
    15. Alfredo Burlando, 2014. "Power Outages, Power Externalities, and Baby Booms," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(4), pages 1477-1500, August.
    16. Boberg-Fazlic, Nina & Ivets, Maryna & Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese, 2021. "Disease and fertility: Evidence from the 1918–19 influenza pandemic in Sweden," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    17. Thiemo Fetzer & Oliver Pardo & Amar Shanghavi, 2018. "More than an urban legend: the short- and long-run effects of unplanned fertility shocks," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(4), pages 1125-1176, October.
    18. Callen, Michael, 2015. "Catastrophes and time preference: Evidence from the Indian Ocean Earthquake," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 199-214.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Edmonds, Eric V., 2008. "Child Labor," Handbook of Development Economics, in: T. Paul Schultz & John A. Strauss (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 57, pages 3607-3709, Elsevier.
    2. Sofya Krutikova, 2010. "Who Gets to Stay in School? Long-run Impact of Income Shocks on Schooling in Rural Tanzania," Economics Series Working Papers CSAE WPS/2010-36, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Patrick M. Emerson & Vladimir Ponczek & André Portela Souza, 2017. "Child Labor and Learning," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 265-296.
    4. Hakan Acaroglu & Ozcan Dagdemir, 2010. "An Alternative Approach For Child Labour In Developing Countries: Child Labour Participation Rates Or School Non-Attendance Rates," Perspectives of Innovation in Economics and Business (PIEB), Prague Development Center, vol. 5(2), pages 75-78, June.
    5. Alem, Yonas, 2018. "Shocks, Remittances and Household Consumption: A Dynamic System GMM Analysis," EfD Discussion Paper 18-2, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    6. Danyelle Branco & José Féres, 2021. "Weather Shocks and Labor Allocation: Evidence from Rural Brazil," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1359-1377, August.
    7. Ulrik Beck & Saurabh Singhal & Finn Tarp, 2016. "Coffee price volatility and intra-household labour supply," WIDER Working Paper Series 016, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Ulrik Beck & Saurabh Singhal & Finn Tarp, 2016. "Coffee price volatility and intra-household labour supply: Evidence from Vietnam," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-16, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    10. Dumas, Christelle, 2013. "Market Imperfections and Child Labor," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 127-142.
    11. Thomas Joseph & Yaw Nyarko & Shing-Yi Wang, 2018. "Asymmetric Information and Remittances: Evidence from Matched Administrative Data," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 58-100, April.
    12. Castells-Quintana, David & del Pilar Lopez-Uribe, Maria & McDermott, Thomas K.J., 2018. "A review of adaptation to climate change through a development economics lens," Working Papers 309605, National University of Ireland, Galway, Socio-Economic Marine Research Unit.
    13. Basu, Arnab K. & Dimova, Ralitza, 2020. "Household Behavioral Preferences and the Child Labor-Education Trade-off: Framed Field Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia," IZA Discussion Papers 13011, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Fabre, Alice & Pallage, Stéphane, 2015. "Child labor, idiosyncratic shocks, and social policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 394-411.
    15. Shawn Cole & Xavier Gine & Jeremy Tobacman & Petia Topalova & Robert Townsend & James Vickery, 2013. "Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 104-135, January.
    16. Emiliano Magrini & Pierluigi Montalbano, 2012. "Trade openness and vulnerability to poverty: Vietnam in the long-run (1992-2008)," Working Paper Series 3512, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    17. Letta, Marco & Montalbano, Pierluigi & Tol, Richard S.J., 2018. "Temperature shocks, short-term growth and poverty thresholds: Evidence from rural Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 13-32.
    18. Jeffrey A. Flory, 2011. "Micro-Savings & Informal Insurance in Villages: How Financial Deepening Affects Safety Nets of the Poor, A Natural Field Experiment," Working Papers 2011-008, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    19. Timothy J. Halliday, 2007. "Migration, Risk and the Intra-Household Allocation of Labor in El Salvador," Working Papers 200701, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    20. Vasco Molini & Michiel Keyzer & Bart van den Boom & Wouter Zant & Nicholas Nsowah-Nuamah, 2010. "Safety Nets and Index-Based Insurance: Historical Assessment and Semiparametric Simulation for Northern Ghana," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(4), pages 671-712, July.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:udb:wpaper:uwec-2006-19-r. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael Goldblatt (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuwaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.