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Rainfall variability and internal migration: the importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality

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  • Luong, Tuan Anh
  • Nguyen, Manh-Hung
  • Khuong Truong, N.T.
  • Le, Kien

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent to which exposure to climate volatility can in-fluence individual migration decisions in Vietnam, based on the historical rainfall data from 70 weather stations in Vietnam and the Vietnam Access to Resources House-hold Survey. Utilizing the exogenous variation in the rainfall deviation from the local norms within an individual fixed-effects framework, we uncover the negative associa-tion between rainfall and the probability of individual migration. Individual migration probability drops by 7.5 percentage points when the amount of rainfall relative to the long-run local average doubles. This reduction could potentially be driven by individ-uals who work in the agricultural sector and are less likely to migrate as more rainfall could increase their agricultural incomes. Furthermore, our heterogeneity analyses sug-gest that rainfall shocks could perpetuate gender inequality in Vietnam since women cannot cope with climatic shocks through migration. Policy-makers could shift their focus on flood control and water management in affected areas, where people’s liveli-hoods depend on agriculture, to efficiently address issues related to climate-induced internal migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Luong, Tuan Anh & Nguyen, Manh-Hung & Khuong Truong, N.T. & Le, Kien, 2022. "Rainfall variability and internal migration: the importance of agriculture linkage and gender inequality," TSE Working Papers 22-1373, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:127429
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Yunmeng, 2024. "Do natural disaster affect rural labor migration? Evidence from the Wenchuan earthquake in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 996-1006.
    2. Kaizhi Yu & Yao Shi & Jiahan Feng, 2024. "The influence of robot applications on rural labor transfer," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Mukherjee, Manisha & Fransen, Sonja, 2024. "Exploring migration decision-making and agricultural adaptation in the context of climate change: A systematic review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    4. Wu, Zhiyang & Zhou, Tao & Zhang, Ning & Choi, Yongrok & Kong, Fanbin, 2023. "A hidden risk in climate change: The effect of daily rainfall shocks on industrial activities," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 161-180.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q26 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Recreational Aspects of Natural Resources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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