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(Almost) Recursive Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks with Economic Parameter Restrictions

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Listed:
  • Jan Pablo Burgard
  • Matthias Neuenkirch
  • Dennis Umlandt

Abstract

Recursively identified vector autoregressive (VAR) models often lead to a counterintuitive response of prices (and output) shortly after a monetary policy shock. To overcome this problem, we propose to estimate the VAR parameters under the restriction that economic theory is not violated, while the shocks are still recursively identified. We solve this optimization problem under non-linear constraints using an augmented Lagrange solution approach, which adjusts the VAR coefficients to meet the theoretical requirements. In a generalization, we allow for a (minimal) rotation of the Cholesky matrix in addition to the parameter restrictions. Based on a Monte Carlo study and an empirical application, we show that particularly the "almost recursively identified approach with parameter restrictions" leads to a solution that avoids an estimation bias, generates theory-consistent impulse responses, and is as close as possible to the recursive scheme.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Pablo Burgard & Matthias Neuenkirch & Dennis Umlandt, 2023. "(Almost) Recursive Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks with Economic Parameter Restrictions," Working Paper Series 2023-01, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:trr:qfrawp:202301
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
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    3. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    4. Peersman, Gert, 2011. "Macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1397, European Central Bank.
    5. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy Transmission; Non-Linear Optimization; Price Puzzle; Recursive Identification; Rotation; Sign Restrictions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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