IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tky/fseres/2014cf934.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On Conditional Mean Squared Errors of Empirical Bayes Estimators in Mixed Models with Application to Small Area Estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Shonosuke Sugasawa

    (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Tatsuya Kubokawa

    (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo)

Abstract

This paper is concerned with the prediction of the conditional mean which involves the fixed and random effects based on the natural exponential family with a quadratic variance function. The best predictor is interpreted as the Bayes estimator in the Bayesian context, and the empirical Bayes estimator (EB) is useful for small area estimation in the sense of increasing precision of prediction for small area means. When data of the small area of interest are observed and one wants to know the prediction error of the EB based on the data, the conditional mean squared error (cMSE) given the data is used instead of the conventional unconditional MSE. The difference between the two kinds of MSEs is small and appears in the second-order terms in the classical normal theory mixed model. However, it is shown that the difference appears in the first-order or leading terms for distributions far from normality. Especially, the leading term in the cMSE is a quadratic concave function of the direct estimate in the small area for the binomial-beta mixed model, and an increasing function for the the Poisson-gamma mixed model, while the leading terms in the unconditional MSEs are constants for the two mixed models. Second-order unbiased estimators of the cMSE are provided in two ways based on the analytical and parametric bootstrap methods. Finally, the performances of the EB and the estimator of cMSE are examined through simulation and empirical studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Shonosuke Sugasawa & Tatsuya Kubokawa, 2014. "On Conditional Mean Squared Errors of Empirical Bayes Estimators in Mixed Models with Application to Small Area Estimation," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-934, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2014cf934
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2014/2014cf934.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gauri Sankar Datta & J. N. K. Rao & David Daniel Smith, 2005. "On measuring the variability of small area estimators under a basic area level model," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(1), pages 183-196, March.
    2. Tatsuya Kubokawa & Mana Hasukawa & Kunihiko Takahashi, 2014. "On Measuring Uncertainty of Benchmarked Predictors with Application to Disease Risk Estimate," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 41(2), pages 394-413, June.
    3. Malay Ghosh & Tapabrata Maiti, 2008. "Empirical Bayes Confidence Intervals for Means of Natural Exponential Family‐Quadratic Variance Function Distributions with Application to Small Area Estimation," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 35(3), pages 484-495, September.
    4. Gauri Datta & Tatsuya Kubokawa & Isabel Molina & J. Rao, 2011. "Estimation of mean squared error of model-based small area estimators," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 20(2), pages 367-388, August.
    5. Malay Ghosh, 2004. "Small-area estimation based on natural exponential family quadratic variance function models and survey weights," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 91(1), pages 95-112, March.
    6. Torabi, Mahmoud & Rao, J.N.K., 2013. "Estimation of mean squared error of model-based estimators of small area means under a nested error linear regression model," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 76-87.
    7. Peter Hall & Tapabrata Maiti, 2006. "On parametric bootstrap methods for small area prediction," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(2), pages 221-238, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sugasawa, Shonosuke & Kubokawa, Tatsuya, 2016. "On conditional prediction errors in mixed models with application to small area estimation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 18-33.
    2. Shonosuke Sugasawa & Tatsuya Kubokawa & Kota Ogasawara, 2017. "Empirical Uncertain Bayes Methods in Area-level Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 44(3), pages 684-706, September.
    3. Tatsuya Kubokawa & Bui Nagashima, 2011. "Parametric Bootstrap Methods for Bias Correction in Linear Mixed Models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-801, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    4. Shonosuke Sugasawa & Tatsuya Kubokawa, 2014. "Estimation and Prediction Intervals in Transformed Linear Mixed Models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-929, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    5. Kubokawa, Tatsuya & Nagashima, Bui, 2012. "Parametric bootstrap methods for bias correction in linear mixed models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-16.
    6. Tatsuya Kubokawa & Mana Hasukawa & Kunihiko Takahashi, 2012. "On Measuring Uncertainty of Benchmarked Predictors with Application to Disease Risk Estimatee," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-861, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    7. repec:csb:stintr:v:17:y:2016:i:1:p:9-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Erciulescu Andreea L. & Fuller Wayne A., 2016. "Small Area Prediction Under Alternative Model Specifications," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 9-24, March.
    9. Torabi, Mahmoud & Rao, J.N.K., 2014. "On small area estimation under a sub-area level model," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 36-55.
    10. Tatsuya Kubokawa, 2010. "On Measuring Uncertainty of Small Area Estimators with Higher Order Accuracy," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-754, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    11. Li, Huilin & Lahiri, P., 2010. "An adjusted maximum likelihood method for solving small area estimation problems," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(4), pages 882-892, April.
    12. Sugasawa, Shonosuke & Kawakubo, Yuki & Datta, Gauri Sankar, 2019. "Observed best selective prediction in small area estimation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 383-392.
    13. Tatsuya Kubokawa & Mana Hasukawa & Kunihiko Takahashi, 2014. "On Measuring Uncertainty of Benchmarked Predictors with Application to Disease Risk Estimate," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 41(2), pages 394-413, June.
    14. Tatsuya Kubokawa, 2009. "Corrected Empirical Bayes Confidence Intervals in Nested Error Regression Models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-632, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    15. Domingo Morales & Joscha Krause & Jan Pablo Burgard, 2022. "On the Use of Aggregate Survey Data for Estimating Regional Major Depressive Disorder Prevalence," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 87(1), pages 344-368, March.
    16. Andreea L. Erciulescu & Wayne A. Fuller, 2016. "Small Area Prediction Under Alternative Model Specifications," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 9-24, March.
    17. Malay Ghosh & Tapabrata Maiti, 2008. "Empirical Bayes Confidence Intervals for Means of Natural Exponential Family‐Quadratic Variance Function Distributions with Application to Small Area Estimation," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 35(3), pages 484-495, September.
    18. Sugasawa, Shonosuke & Kubokawa, Tatsuya, 2015. "Parametric transformed Fay–Herriot model for small area estimation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 295-311.
    19. Katarzyna Reluga & María‐José Lombardía & Stefan Sperlich, 2023. "Simultaneous inference for linear mixed model parameters with an application to small area estimation," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 91(2), pages 193-217, August.
    20. Hirose, Masayo Yoshimori, 2017. "Non-area-specific adjustment factor for second-order efficient empirical Bayes confidence interval," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 67-78.
    21. Ralf Münnich & Jan Burgard & Martin Vogt, 2013. "Small Area-Statistik: Methoden und Anwendungen," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 6(3), pages 149-191, March.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2014cf934. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CIRJE administrative office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ritokjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.