IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tin/wpaper/20140100.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Carbon Lock-In: The Role of Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Gerard van der Meijden

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Sjak Smulders

    (Tilburg University, the Netherlands)

Abstract

We argue that expectations about future energy use affect the transition from fossil to renewables, because of an interaction between innovation and resource scarcity. The paper presents a model of directed technical change to study this interaction. We find that fossil-saving technical change erodes the incentives to implement the renewables. Conversely, the anticipation of a transition to renewables diminishes the incentives to invest in fossil technology. As a result, two equilibria may arise, one with a transition to renewables and with low fossil efficiency, and one without renewables and with high fossil efficiency. Expectations determine which equilibrium arises in equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerard van der Meijden & Sjak Smulders, 2014. "Carbon Lock-In: The Role of Expectations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-100/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Jul 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20140100
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://papers.tinbergen.nl/14100.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Di Maria, Corrado & Valente, Simone, 2006. "The Direction of Technical Change in Capital-Resource Economies," MPRA Paper 1040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Benchekroun, Hassan & Withagen, Cees, 2011. "The optimal depletion of exhaustible resources: A complete characterization," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 612-636, September.
    3. Dieter Grass & Jonathan P. Caulkins & Gustav Feichtinger & Gernot Tragler & Doris A. Behrens, 2008. "Optimal Control of Nonlinear Processes," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-77647-5, June.
    4. Trimborn, Timo & Koch, Karl-Josef & Steger, Thomas M., 2008. "Multidimensional Transitional Dynamics: A Simple Numerical Procedure," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 301-319, June.
    5. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-131, March.
    6. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    7. Paul Krugman, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 651-667.
    8. David, Paul A, 1985. "Clio and the Economics of QWERTY," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 332-337, May.
    9. World Bank, 2012. "World Development Indicators 2012," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6014.
    10. Unruh, Gregory C., 2000. "Understanding carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 817-830, October.
    11. Daron Acemoglu, 1998. "Why Do New Technologies Complement Skills? Directed Technical Change and Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1055-1089.
    12. Kiley, Michael T, 1999. "The Supply of Skilled Labour and Skill-Biased Technological Progress," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 708-724, October.
    13. William D. Nordhaus, 1973. "The Allocation of Energy Resources," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 529-576.
    14. R. M. Solow, 1974. "Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 29-45.
    15. Di Maria, Corrado & Valente, Simone, 2008. "Hicks meets Hotelling: the direction of technical change in capital–resource economies," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(6), pages 691-717, December.
    16. Chen, Been-Lon & Shimomura, Koji, 1998. "Self-Fulfilling Expectations and Economic Growth: A Model of Technology Adoption and Industrialization," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(1), pages 151-170, February.
    17. André, Francisco J. & Smulders, Sjak, 2014. "Fueling growth when oil peaks: Directed technological change and the limits to efficiency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 18-39.
    18. Smulders, Sjak & de Nooij, Michiel, 2003. "The impact of energy conservation on technology and economic growth," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-79, February.
    19. Benchekroun, Hassan & Withagen, Cees, 2011. "The optimal depletion of exhaustible resources: A complete characterization," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 612-636, September.
    20. van der Werf, Edwin, 2008. "Production functions for climate policy modeling: An empirical analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2964-2979, November.
    21. AMIGUES Jean-Pierre & MOREAUX Michel, 2008. "Dedicated Technical Progress with a Non-renewable Resource : Efficiency and Optimality," LERNA Working Papers 08.01.245, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
    22. Cozzi, Guido, 2007. "Self-fulfilling prophecies in the quality ladders economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 445-464, September.
    23. Koetse, Mark J. & de Groot, Henri L.F. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2008. "Capital-energy substitution and shifts in factor demand: A meta-analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2236-2251, September.
    24. Partha Dasgupta & Geoffrey Heal, 1974. "The Optimal Depletion of Exhaustible Resources," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 3-28.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gregory Casey, 2024. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 192-228.
    2. Andreas Schaefer, 2017. "Enforcement of Intellectual Property, Pollution Abatement, and Directed Technical Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(3), pages 457-480, March.
    3. Gustav Engström & Johan Gars & Niko Jaakkola & Therese Lindahl & Daniel Spiro & Arthur A. van Benthem, 2020. "What Policies Address Both the Coronavirus Crisis and the Climate Crisis?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 789-810, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jin, Wei, 2021. "Path dependence, self-fulfilling expectations, and carbon lock-in," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. André, Francisco J. & Smulders, Sjak, 2014. "Fueling growth when oil peaks: Directed technological change and the limits to efficiency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 18-39.
    3. Sjak Smulders & Michael Toman & Cees Withagen, 2014. "Growth Theory and “Green Growthâ€," OxCarre Working Papers 135, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    4. van der Meijden, Gerard & Smulders, Sjak, 2018. "Technological Change During The Energy Transition," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 805-836, June.
    5. Gregory Casey, 2024. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 192-228.
    6. Smulders, Sjak & Withagen, Cees, 2012. "Green growth -- lessons from growth theory," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6230, The World Bank.
    7. Antony, Jürgen & Klarl, Torben, 2022. "Poverty and sustainable development around the world during transition periods," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    8. David I. Stern and Astrid Kander, 2012. "The Role of Energy in the Industrial Revolution and Modern Economic Growth," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    9. Richard Green & Nicholas Vasilakos, 2012. "Storing Wind for a Rainy Day: What Kind of Electricity Does Denmark Export?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 33(3), pages 1-22, July.
    10. Derek Lemoine, 2024. "Innovation-Led Transitions in Energy Supply," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 29-65, January.
    11. David I. Stern, 2010. "The Role of Energy in Economic Growth," CCEP Working Papers 0310, Centre for Climate & Energy Policy, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    12. Wei Jin & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2018. "Capital Accumulation, Green Paradox, and Stranded Assets: An Endogenous Growth Perspective," Working Papers 2018.33, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    13. Hou, Zheng & Roseta-Palma, Catarina & Ramalho, Joaquim José dos Santos, 2021. "Does directed technological change favor energy? Firm-level evidence from Portugal," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    14. Ngo Long & Vincent Martinet, 2018. "Combining rights and welfarism: a new approach to intertemporal evaluation of social alternatives," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 50(1), pages 35-64, January.
    15. Maciej Malaczewski, 2018. "Natural Resources As An Energy Source In A Simple Economic Growth Model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(4), pages 362-380, October.
    16. Di Maria, Corrado & Valente, Simone, 2006. "The Direction of Technical Change in Capital-Resource Economies," MPRA Paper 1040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Zohal Hessami, 2016. "How Do Voters React to Complex Choices in a Direct Democracy? Evidence from Switzerland," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(2), pages 263-293, May.
    18. Jürgen Antony & Torben Klarl, 2019. "Non-Renewable Resources in a Ramsey Economy with Subsistence Consumption, Human and Physical Capital Accumulation: A full Characterization," Bremen Papers on Economics & Innovation 1904, University of Bremen, Faculty of Business Studies and Economics.
    19. Kerschner, Christian & Ehlers, Melf-Hinrich, 2016. "A framework of attitudes towards technology in theory and practice," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 139-151.
    20. Antony, Jürgen & Klarl, Torben, 2019. "Non-renewable resources, subsistence consumption, and Hartwick's investment rule," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 124-142.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Directed technical change; energy transition; multiple equilibria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20140100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tinbergen Office +31 (0)10-4088900 (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tinbenl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.