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Costs of sovereign defaults: Restructuring strategies, bank distress and the capital inflow-credit channel

Author

Listed:
  • Tamon Asonuma

    (IMF)

  • Marcos Chamon

    (IMF)

  • Aitor Erce

    (ESM)

  • Akira Sasahara

    (University of Idaho)

Abstract

Sovereign debt restructurings are associated with declines in GDP, investment, bank credit, and capital flows. The transmission channels and associated output and banking sector costs depend on whether the restructuring takes place pre-emptively, without missing payments to creditors, or whether it takes place after a default has occurred. Post-default restructurings are associated with larger declines in bank credit, an increase in lending interest rates, and a higher likelihood of triggering a banking crisis than pre-emptive restructurings. Our local projection estimates show large declines in GDP, investment, and credit amplified by severe sudden stops and transmitted through a “capital inflow-credit channel”.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamon Asonuma & Marcos Chamon & Aitor Erce & Akira Sasahara, 2019. "Costs of sovereign defaults: Restructuring strategies, bank distress and the capital inflow-credit channel," Working Papers 37, European Stability Mechanism.
    • Handle: RePEc:stm:wpaper:37
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    Cited by:

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    4. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Mateane, Lebogang, 2020. "Risk preferences, global market conditions and foreign debt: Is there any role for the currency composition of FX reserves?," EconStor Preprints 227484, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Francesca Caselli & Matilde Faralli & Paolo Manasse & Ugo Panizza, 2021. "On the Benefits of Repaying," IMF Working Papers 2021/233, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Moreno Badia, Marialuz & Medas, Paulo & Gupta, Pranav & Xiang, Yuan, 2022. "Debt is not free," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Andrian, Leandro Gaston & Rodríguez, César M. & Valencia, Oscar, 2024. "Surges in the Shadows: Stock-Flow Adjustments and Public Debt Spikes," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13725, Inter-American Development Bank.
    9. Kris James Mitchener & Christoph Trebesch, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century," CESifo Working Paper Series 8959, CESifo.
    10. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi, 2020. "The price of haircuts: private and official default," Development Working Papers 460, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 06 Feb 2020.
    11. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi & Pietro Bomprezzi, 2021. "Is to Forgive to Forget? Sovereign Risk in the Aftermath of a Default," Development Working Papers 475, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    12. Kikkawa, Ayumu Ken & Sasahara, Akira, 2020. "Gains from trade and the sovereign bond market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    13. Sergey Pekarski & Anna Sokolova, 2021. "Default Costs and Self-fulfilling Fiscal Limits in a Small Open Economy," HSE Working papers WP BRP 243/EC/2021, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt; sovereign defaults; sovereign debt restructurings; GDP growth; investment; banking crisis; local projection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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