IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ssb/dispap/174.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand, Supply and Oil Price Shocks

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper analyses the dynamic effects of aggregate demand, supply and real oil price shocks on real output and unemployment. Oil price shocks are included explicitly in the model, to investigate their role in explaining periods of global recessions. The different structural disturbances are identified by imposing long-run and short-run restrictions on a vector autoregressive model. The analysis is applied to Germany, Norway, United Kingdom and United States. For all countries except Norway, an adverse oil price shock has had a negative effect on output in the short run, and for US, the effect is negative also in the long run. However, whereas the first oil price shock was the most important factor behind the severity of the recession in the middle 1970s, adverse demand and supply shocks were more important than the second oil price shock in explaining the recession in the early 1980s. For Norway, a small oil exporting country, an adverse oil price shock stimulates the economy, although in the long run, the effect is most likely zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Hilde Christiane Bjørnland, 1996. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand, Supply and Oil Price Shocks," Discussion Papers 174, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp_174.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Imran Shah, 2012. "Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/626, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    2. Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 243, European Central Bank.
    3. Katsuya Ito, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Price Volatility on Macroeconomic Activity in Russia," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 9, pages 1-21, July.
    4. Luis N. Lanteri, 2011. "Apertura económica y producto sectorial. Alguna evidencia para la economía Argentina," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 2, pages 1-1, December.
    5. Aminu, Nasir & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2018. "The role of energy prices in the Great Recession — A two-sector model with unfiltered data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 14-34.
    6. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Marcelo Sanchez, 2009. "Oil shocks and the macro-economy: a comparison across high oil price periods," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(16), pages 1633-1638.
    7. Fardous Alom, 2014. "Oil Price-Macroeconomic Relationship in Australia and New Zealand: Application of a Hidden Cointegration Technique," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 6(2), pages 105-128, July.
    8. Hilde Christiane Bjørnland, 1996. "Sources of Business Cycles in Energy Producing Economies - The case of Norway and United Kingdom," Discussion Papers 179, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    9. Eika, Torbjorn & Magnussen, Knut A., 2000. "Did Norway gain from the 1979-1985 oil price shock?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 107-137, January.
    10. Kashif Zaheer Malik & Haram Ajmal & Muhammad Umer Zahid, 2017. "Oil Price Shock and its Impact on the Macroeconomic Variables of Pakistan: A Structural Vector Autoregressive Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 83-92.
    11. Einar Bowitz & Ådne Cappelen, 1997. "Incomes Policies and the Norwegian Economy 1973-93," Discussion Papers 192, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    12. Ray Barrell & Knut A. Magnussen, 1996. "Counterfactual Analyses of Oil Price Shocks using a World Model," Discussion Papers 177, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    13. Torbjørn Eika & Knut A. Magnussen, 1998. "Did Norway Gain from the 1979-85 Oil Price Shock?," Discussion Papers 210, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    14. Fabio DI DIO & Francesco FELICI, 2009. "Estimating Core Inflation In Norway," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(3(9)_Fall).
    15. Sverre Grepperud, 1997. "Soil Depletion Choices under Production and Price Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 186, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    16. Bebonchu Atems, 2015. "A note on the determinants of long-run aggregate state productivity growth," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(16), pages 1287-1292, November.
    17. Luis N. Lanteri, 2017. "Shocks de precios externos y su impacto en el consumo y en la inversión. Alguna evidencia para Argentina," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 1, pages 1-1, December.
    18. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 1998. "Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy - Real versus Nominal Shocks," Discussion Papers 215, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price shocks; permanent and trasitory components; structural change; unit root; vector autoregression.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: L Maasø (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ssbgvno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.