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Predicting returns on asset markets of a small, open economy and the influence of global risks

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  • David Haab
  • Dr. Thomas Nitschka

Abstract

Stylized facts of asset return predictability are mainly based on evidence from the US, a large, closed economy, and, hence, are not necessarily representative of small, open economies. Furthermore, discountrate news mainly drive US asset returns. This is not the case in other economies. We use Switzerland as example to highlight the importance of these issues and to assess the impact of global risks on the predictability of asset returns of a small, open economy. We find that the forecast ability of the best Swiss predictive variable varies over time. This time variation is linked to global foreign currency risks.

Suggested Citation

  • David Haab & Dr. Thomas Nitschka, 2017. "Predicting returns on asset markets of a small, open economy and the influence of global risks," Working Papers 2017-14, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2017-14
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    File URL: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2017/working_paper_2017_14
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bond market; business cycle; foreign exchange rate; predictability; risk premium; stock market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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