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Optimal CO2-abatement with socio-economic inertia and induced technological change

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  • Malte Schwoon
  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

The impact of induced technological change (ITC) in energy/climate models on the timing of optimal CO2-abatement depends on whether R&D or learning-by-doing (LBD) is the driving force. Bottom-up energy system models employing LBD suggest strong increases in optimal early abatement. In this paper we extend an existing top-down model supporting this view according to the notion that socio-economic inertia interferes with rapid technological change. We derive analytical results concerning the impact of inertia and ITC on optimal initial abatement and show a wide range of numerical simulations to illustrate magnitudes. Inertia now dominates the timing decision on early abatement, such that LBD might even have a negative effect on early abatement and the impact of R&D is limited. However, ITC still reduces costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO2-concentrations considerably.

Suggested Citation

  • Malte Schwoon & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Optimal CO2-abatement with socio-economic inertia and induced technological change," Working Papers FNU-37, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:37
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    Cited by:

    1. Popp, David & Santen, Nidhi & Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Webster, Mort, 2013. "Technology variation vs. R&D uncertainty: What matters most for energy patent success?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 505-533.
    2. Lennox, James A. & Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan, 2017. "Directed technical change with capital-embodied technologies: Implications for climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 400-409.
    3. Guo, Jian-Xin & Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2016. "Emission path planning based on dynamic abatement cost curve," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(3), pages 996-1013.
    4. Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Mulder, 2011. "Energy Efficiency and Technological Change," Chapters, in: Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Mulder (ed.), Improving Energy Efficiency through Technology, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Pizer, William A. & Popp, David, 2008. "Endogenizing technological change: Matching empirical evidence to modeling needs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 2754-2770, November.
    6. Popp, David & Newell, Richard G. & Jaffe, Adam B., 2010. "Energy, the Environment, and Technological Change," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 873-937, Elsevier.
    7. Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Meunier, Guy & Hallegatte, Stéphane, 2018. "When starting with the most expensive option makes sense: Optimal timing, cost and sectoral allocation of abatement investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 210-233.
    8. Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Hallegatte, Stéphane, 2014. "Marginal abatement cost curves and the optimal timing of mitigation measures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 645-653.
    9. Bistline, John E., 2016. "Energy technology R&D portfolio management: Modeling uncertain returns and market diffusion," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1181-1196.
    10. Adrien Vogt-Schilb & Guy Meunier & Stéphane Hallegatte, 2012. "How inertia and limited potentials affect the timing of sectoral abatements in optimal climate policy," Post-Print hal-00722574, HAL.
    11. Weiwei Xiong & Katsumasa Tanaka & Philippe Ciais & Daniel J. A. Johansson & Mariliis Lehtveer, 2022. "emIAM v1.0: an emulator for Integrated Assessment Models using marginal abatement cost curves," Papers 2212.12060, arXiv.org.
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    13. Tol, Richard S.J., 2013. "Targets for global climate policy: An overview," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 911-928.
    14. Adrien Vogt-Schilb & St�phane Hallegatte & Christophe de Gouvello, 2015. "Marginal abatement cost curves and the quality of emission reductions: a case study on Brazil," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 703-723, November.
    15. Giorgio Ferrari & Torben Koch, 2019. "On a strategic model of pollution control," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 275(2), pages 297-319, April.
    16. Edward B. Barbier, 2013. "Is a global crisis required to prevent climate change? A historical–institutional perspective," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 28, pages 598-614, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Edward B. Barbier, 2012. "Économie verte et développement durable : enjeux de politique économique," Reflets et perspectives de la vie économique, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(4), pages 97-117.
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    19. Edward Barbier, 2011. "The policy challenges for green economy and sustainable economic development," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 233-245, August.
    20. Ferrari, Giorgio & Koch, Torben, 2018. "On a Strategic Model of Pollution Control," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 586, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate policy; technological change; inertia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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