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COVID-19 Vaccination Mandates and Vaccine Uptake

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Abstract

We estimate the impact of government-mandated proof of vaccination requirements for access to public venues and non-essential businesses on COVID-19 vaccine uptake. We use event-study and difference-in-differences approaches exploiting the variation in the timing of these measures across Canadian provinces. We find that the announce- ment of a vaccination mandate is associated with large increase in new first-dose vaccinations in the first week (more than 50% on average) and the second week (more than 100%) immediately following the announcement. The estimated effect starts waning about six weeks past the announcement. Counterfactual simulations using our estimates suggest that these mandates have led to about 289,000 additional first-dose vaccinations in Canada as of September 30, 2021, which is 1 to 8 weeks after the policy announcements across the different provinces. Time-series analysis corroborates our results for Canada, and we further estimate that national vaccine mandates in three European countries also led to large gains in first-dose vaccinations (7+ mln in France, 4+ mln in Italy and 1+ mln in Germany, 7 to 12 weeks after the policy announcements).

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  • Alexander Karaivanov & Dongwoo Kim & Shih En Lu & Hitoshi Shigeoka, 2021. "COVID-19 Vaccination Mandates and Vaccine Uptake," Discussion Papers dp21-13, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    • Handle: RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp21-13
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    1. Giulietti, Corrado & Vlassopoulos, Michael & Zenou, Yves, 2021. "When Reality Bites: Local Deaths and Vaccine Take-Up," GLO Discussion Paper Series 999, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Elinder, Mikael & Erixson, Oscar & Öhman, Mattias, 2023. "Cognitive ability, health policy, and the dynamics of COVID-19 vaccination," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Lorena Charrier & Jacopo Garlasco & Robin Thomas & Paolo Gardois & Marco Bo & Carla Maria Zotti, 2022. "An Overview of Strategies to Improve Vaccination Compliance before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(17), pages 1-13, September.
    4. Santolini, Raffaella, 2023. "The COVID-19 green certificate’s effect on vaccine uptake in French and Italian regions," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 1036-1057.
    5. Humlum, Maria Knoth & Morthorst, Marius Opstrup & Thingholm, Peter Rønø, 2024. "Sibling spillovers and the choice to get vaccinated: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. Raffaella Santolini, 2022. "The Covid-19 Green Certificate'S Effect On Vaccine Uptake In Italian Regions," Working Papers 468, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    7. Hirani, Jonas Cuzulan & Wüst, Miriam, 2024. "Reminder design and childhood vaccination coverage," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    8. François, Abel & Gergaud, Olivier & Noury, Abdul, 2023. "Can health passport overcome political hurdles to COVID-19 vaccination?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Steinmayr, Andreas & Rossi, Manuel, 2022. "Vaccine-Skeptic Physicians and COVID-19 Vaccination Rates," IZA Discussion Papers 15730, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Serrano-Alarcón, Manuel & Mckee, Martin & Palumbo, Leonardo & Salvi, Cristiana & Johansen, Anne & Stuckler, David, 2024. "How to increase COVID-19 vaccination among a population with persistently suboptimal vaccine uptake? Evidence from the North Macedonia mobile vaccination and public health advice caravan," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Kim Saxton, M. & Colby, Helen & Saxton, Todd & Pasumarti, Vikram, 2024. "Why or How? the impact of Construal-Level Theory on vaccine message receptivity," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    12. Md. Maruf Ahmed Molla & Jannat Ara Disha & Mahmuda Yeasmin & Asish Kumar Ghosh & Tasnim Nafisa, 2021. "Decreasing transmission and initiation of countrywide vaccination: Key challenges for future management of COVID‐19 pandemic in Bangladesh," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1014-1029, July.
    13. Rahi Abouk & John S. Earle & Johanna Catherine Maclean & Sungbin Park, 2024. "Promoting Public Health with Blunt Instruments: Evidence from Vaccine Mandates," NBER Working Papers 32286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Dewatripont, Mathias, 2022. "Which policies for vaccine innovation and delivery in Europe?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    15. Balisacan, Arsenio M. & dela Cruz, Russel Matthew M., 2021. "When a Pandemic Strikes: Balancing Health and Economy toward Sustainable and Inclusive Recovery," MPRA Paper 111259, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Giulietti, Corrado & Vlassopoulos, Michael & Zenou, Yves, 2023. "When reality bites: Local deaths and vaccine take-up," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    17. Zou, Hao & Sheng, Dian & Jiang, Jiehui, 2024. "Impact of trans-regional travel-related testing on epidemic spreading," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 643(C).
    18. Bussolo, Maurizio & Sarma, Nayantara & Torre, Iván, 2023. "The links between COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and non-pharmaceutical interventions," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    19. John Steven Ott & Frances L. Edwards & Pitima Boonyarak, 2021. "Global Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic," Public Organization Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 619-627, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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